SMU +750 to win East

DOM_Toretto · 03-14-17, 12:37 PM

SMU actually matches up very well against Duke. I'd expect them to beat Duke. From there they could certainly pull off an upset vs. Nova - or get lucky and have someone else (Wiscy, Florida, etc) knock off Nova first.

jayc88 · 03-14-17, 12:40 PM

Will not even advance to the 2nd round no matter who they play

Notorious_Donk · 03-14-17, 12:42 PM

Not bad value wizzle

RobbieStacks · 03-14-17, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by jayc88

Will not even advance to the 2nd round no matter who they play

I was thinking SMU could make the Final Four, but now the more that I think about it and the way they've won so many games in a row and have been ATS monsters except for ECU, I think that if they're favored by fewer than 4 points against USC/Providence, with all the hype surrounding them, that they might bust out immediately. They only go 7 deep, which is a huge problem.

t-wizzle · 03-14-17, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

I was thinking SMU could make the Final Four, but now the more that I think about it and the way they've won so many games in a row and have been ATS monsters except for ECU, I think that if they're favored by fewer than 4 points against USC/Providence, with all the hype surrounding them, that they might bust out immediately. They only go 7 deep, which is a huge problem.

They will roll over either of those teams. And they'll be a healthy 7 point fave at least regardless of who they face.

lakerboy · 03-14-17, 12:53 PM

I like this. I'm working on some plays.

KRIT · 03-14-17, 02:51 PM

Really like SMU this year. Only problem with them is lack of depth. Talent wise, they can play with almost anyone in the country.

jayc88 · 03-14-17, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

They will roll over either of those teams. And they'll be ahealthy 7 point fave at least regardless of who they face.

no way they are a 7 point fave on neutral court

PorkChop · 03-14-17, 03:25 PM

On it myself.

Think they're extremely undervalued.

t-wizzle · 03-14-17, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by jayc88

no way they are a 7 point fave on neutral court

Against Providence or USC? They absolutely will be.

goduke · 03-14-17, 03:37 PM

.....

Mackballs · 03-14-17, 03:47 PM

I don't think Providence or USC offer anything to SMU. Love how interchangeable they are. Just wish they had one more rotation player that could contribute consistently. Seven can run thin after a couple games especially against top competition.

readytowinem · 03-14-17, 03:55 PM

Like this t wiz

RobbieStacks · 03-14-17, 04:44 PM

Here's one thing for certain:

Duke is now +275 to come out of the East. Do NOT buy the Duke hype. I know they were the preseason favorites to win the title and have reestablished themselves as such on some books, but if you can see past the swishes and athleticism that Allen/Kennard/Tatum and the other MickeyD All Americans provide, you'll see a team that's soft defensively and doesn't really have an identity. They are going to absolutely implode one game and be all out of synch and make terrible decisions.

DOM_Toretto · 03-14-17, 05:24 PM

^ sharp post Robbie. Where have you been hiding? We could use another NCAAB guy around here.

ManOfValue · 03-14-17, 06:01 PM

Not crazy about SMU. I like their style but I don't see anybody outside of Ojeleye playing big. Yes they have some good role players
but they will need one or two more players who can take over when opposing coaches say "Ojeleye won't beat us today". I think comebody referenced their win over ECU. Remember SMU was up 20+ in the first half and with a few minutes to go it was a two point game.

t-wizzle · 03-14-17, 10:41 PM

SMU's odds have dropped significantly. You've all been warned.

RobbieStacks · 03-14-17, 11:49 PM

Now showing up at +650.

I honestly believe that, based on the odds, SMU, UVA, Baylor, or Wisconsin will be coming out of the East. It's hard to fathom with Wisconsin because they're much weaker than in recent seasons, and Koenig is a great shooter, but he clearly can't create easy shots against more athletic defenders. Villanova might come out as the chalk pick since BPI did give them around a 50% chance of making the final four, but I think they get upset before the Elite Eight by either Wisky or Virginia.

Notorious_Donk · 03-15-17, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

Now showing up at +650.

I honestly believe that, based on the odds, SMU, UVA, Baylor, or Wisconsin will be coming out of the East. It's hard to fathom with Wisconsin because they're much weaker than in recent seasons, and Koenig is a great shooter, but he clearly can't create easy shots against more athletic defenders. Villanova might come out as the chalk pick since BPI did give them around a 50% chance of making the final four, but I think they get upset before the Elite Eight by either Wisky or Virginia.

I don't see Wisky upsetting Villanova because they simply won't be able to play with a top tier team like that, but for some reason they tend to show up in tournaments. I guess we'll have to wait and see

t-wizzle · 03-15-17, 09:49 AM

SMU is +500 to make it out of the East at pinny. Keep in mind they opened +1000.

ManOfValue · 03-15-17, 11:36 AM

Seems like the whole world on it. The odds dropping so much speaks volumes though.

jayc88 · 03-15-17, 11:49 AM

i love how everyone is pounding them, too bad i will only be able to fade them one game this tournament

RobbieStacks · 03-15-17, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by ManOfValue

Seems like the whole world on it. The odds dropping so much speaks volumes though.

I only see the sharps on it. Seems the betting public is heavy on Duke followed by Nova.

Ralphie Halves · 03-16-17, 05:58 AM

6.5 to 1 odds for a 6 seed to go to the final 4?

Terrible odds. Like really terrible.

jjgold · 03-16-17, 09:38 AM

Underrated team

To get
Too final
4 you do need some luck too

ChalkyDog · 03-16-17, 02:10 PM

I got SMU going deep as well. Like the value. Their metrics are top 10ish team in the nation. I get all that shit doesn't matter in the dance, but they're still underseeded and undervalued with some solid matchups in their path.

t-wizzle · 03-16-17, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

I got SMU going deep as well. Like the value. Their metrics are top 10ish team in the nation. I get all that shit doesn't matter in the dance, but they're still underseeded and undervalued with some solid matchups in their path.

Long time no see. How you been?

I got SMU and Arizona going deep. You're SBR's Zona man from what I recall.

RobbieStacks · 03-16-17, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

6.5 to 1 odds for a 6 seed to go to the final 4?

Terrible odds. Like really terrible.

You really think so? A mid-major 6 seed with Villanova and Duke, two teams people assume will just magically meet up in the Elite 8, in their region. SMU's as good a play as you can ask for in this region. I always though UVA +850 and SMU +500 were the best bets if you weren't going Villanova or Duke.

ChalkyDog · 03-16-17, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Long time no see. How you been?

I got SMU and Arizona going deep. You're SBR's Zona man from what I recall.

Indeed, brother. There are a few of us running around these parts. Doin' well - playing less. This time of year the itch is insufferable, so I've been running numbers for the last week, getting back into the swing of things.

Zona has some real nice matchups. It's like the selection committee flipped the west region bracket. 'Zona has the far better path, IMO. Saint Mary's is a bitch and WVU is worrisome - I am hoping Zags run to a rematch with us in the elite 8, because Arizona would go in raw on that ass.

RobbieStacks · 03-16-17, 02:22 PM

BPI doesn't like Zona getting to the Sweet 16 at 41%, but then again Vegas doesn't like St. Mary's to get to the Sweet 16 (Yes +240/No -300), so is VCU going to upset Arizona, North Dakota going to stun them, or is Arizona just going to get to the Sweet 16 (-195 odds)??

BPI or Vegas, who do we believe?

t-wizzle · 03-16-17, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

BPI doesn't like Zona getting to the Sweet 16 at 41%, but then again Vegas doesn't like St. Mary's to get to the Sweet 16 (Yes +240/No -300), so is VCU going to upset Arizona, North Dakota going to stun them, or is Arizona just going to get to the Sweet 16 (-195 odds)??

BPI or Vegas, who do we believe?

BPI is garbage. Means nothing.

ChalkyDog · 03-16-17, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

BPI doesn't like Zona getting to the Sweet 16 at 41%, but then again Vegas doesn't like St. Mary's to get to the Sweet 16 (Yes +240/No -300), so is VCU going to upset Arizona, North Dakota going to stun them, or is Arizona just going to get to the Sweet 16 (-195 odds)??

BPI or Vegas, who do we believe?

I'm a last 10 games guy, especially with this tournament. St. Mary's worries me. VCU not at all. I have no reason to believe that Arizona wont be playing to the level they have the last 10.

They beat two top 5 teams in back-to-back nights. Not many teams can say that. Actually, nobody can. They did that last week.

Metrics with Arizona are way off due to the fact they'vee been riddled with injuries and suspensions until well into the conference schedule, took a few games to adjust to inserting the new guys back in a significant role.

Arizona is starting to play their best basketball now, they are at full health and the team chemistry is there.

I'm a homer. I absolutely get it. I've also watched St. Mary's a lot since they're out west with us - they would have to get hot from deep to make it a close game late.

Also, BPI is a shit metric - IMO.

RobbieStacks · 03-16-17, 02:56 PM

Even if it were somehow a flawed metric, that's 10 percentage points below Arizona being more likely than not to make the Sweet Sixteen. I think they lay an egg against the Gaels!

ticklemepink1991 · 03-16-17, 03:17 PM

good luck