Surf picks - World Surfing League tour

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice job, Jack. Profit is a good thing.

[jjgold]

This sport does seem tough

I do not like the line sets

[ChuckyTheGoat]

JJ, it's pretty heavy juice.

In round #s, 105% pool = -110 2-way line.

110% pool = -120 2-way line. The hi-juice is similar to betting into a Futures pool, where there is only one winner.

[Surfjack]

thanks, Chucky!

I'm out of the quarterfinals, juice is too heavy and I don't an edge for any dog

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good job, SJack. Discretion is a good thing, too.

When u look at the 3-man heats...do u often see one guy who can't possibly win it? And thus eliminate him?

[Surfjack]

actually my strategy in the first round was: go with the best, if the heats don't have 2 heavy-weights

as the rounds go on, you will see who's hot and cold and pick with more quality

be careful because WSL is extremely unfair sometimes in judging, just look at Jordy's heat against the two aussies

I've seen brazilians get screwed over and over on tour last year by the judges

[ValueFinder]

What to you guys reckon going int brazil! Lets get the forum cranking and slay some bookies.
Also what are your favourite bookies?

[mdunlap3]

I've bet on some obscure things in my day, but I just can't see myself betting on a surfing event. Seems crazy, but i'll admit I know exactly nothing, so I could be way off here. Either way, BOL to you man, I plan on lurking to see how you do, after all we all love money regardless of the obscurity.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dunlap, the guys who REALLY follow surfing closely will claim to have an edge on the market.

The reason for backing a guy is often "local knowledge." If a surfer is accustomed to surfing in that particular region, he'll feel better about how the waves behave.

[stevek173]

Local jellyfish come into play as well, nothing like a run of good swells and a man of war shows up and stings you in the gut

Good thread

[ValueFinder]

In my years of profitably betting on surfing i see the conditions as the singular factor that creates significant value in the market.
Put simply, the bookies can never get the odds correct as the conditions (wave size, wind -whether its offshore or onshore, tide ect) are constantly changes to a large degree.
For example a surfer who is good in the air but bad in the barrels may have big odds, but just before his heat the wind can easily change from offshore to onshore, and he can turn from the underdog to the favourite but the odds wont reflect this.
In comparison a sport like tennis or soccer will always have the same, or similar, conditions. In other words the pitch doesnt change while the waves do.

This coinciding with surfing being a relatively small market and thus with more than normal value, you can take advantage of this a create profit.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ValFinder, that's a good post.

I truly believe the surf-sharp is going to be more knowledgable than the oddsmaker.

[Bigbill365]

Were can you watch surfing used to watch on tv but cant see it anywere?