St Mary's should beat Gonzaga tonight

Darkside Magick · 03-07-17, 02:23 PM

hondax123 · 03-07-17, 02:25 PM

Very tempting . I'm jumping in probably

TPowell · 03-07-17, 02:30 PM

Idk, after last night I think those chances went down a ton. Gonzaga put in their bad effort while Saint Mary's played crazy good. Water finds its level

RRNJ13 · 03-07-17, 02:58 PM

Agree I actually thought Gonzaga would be a bigger fav I like em to cover the 5

eddycash · 03-07-17, 03:00 PM

I'm trying to trust u otters but damn

BigOrange · 03-07-17, 03:06 PM

First dog you've taken in your life and you pick to go against a 30-1 team? LOL

TPowell · 03-07-17, 03:06 PM

If Gonzaga drops much more, I may unload. Not like Saint Mary's is playing for their tourny lives and Gonzaga is the team wanting to prove people wrong. Had their awful game last night while Saint Mary's had their home run performance. If that flips, this could be a 15+ point game

stackz125 · 03-07-17, 03:24 PM

Otto pound zags then pound ur meat win or loose
Great feeling

jjgold · 03-07-17, 03:26 PM

Otter needs big dogs now

Boookmakers on his tail

klemopixx · 03-07-17, 03:27 PM

Gonzaga already played them twice this year, won both and easily covered in both. Now all the sudden they're going to lose to St. Mary's? Sorry I just don't see that happening.

Gonzaga by double digits.

TPowell · 03-07-17, 03:38 PM

Line down to 4 in some spots. Going to see if I can get Gonzaga -3 at -120 or so before tip. This line is just incredible though.

Darkside Magick · 03-07-17, 03:42 PM

7.5X Gaels +5
2X Gaels +188

JayDr3am · 03-07-17, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

If Gonzaga drops much more, I may unload. Not like Saint Mary's is playing for their tourny lives and Gonzaga is the team wanting to prove people wrong. Had their awful game last night while Saint Mary's had their home run performance. If that flips, this could be a 15+ point game

its at 4.. this is pound potential no doubt

unde0087 · 03-07-17, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

If Gonzaga drops much more, I may unload. Not like Saint Mary's is playing for their tourny lives and Gonzaga is the team wanting to prove people wrong. Had their awful game last night while Saint Mary's had their home run performance. If that flips, this could be a 15+ point game

They have looked pretty average since being downed by BYU. I wouldn't be surprised if they get downed tonight

TPowell · 03-07-17, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

They have looked pretty average since being downed by BYU. I wouldn't be surprised if they get downed tonight

They've only played 2 games since then. They beat Pacific by 30+ granted it was mostly all in the 2H and then the struggle last night against Santa Clara.

chico2663 · 03-07-17, 04:20 PM

well since i watched the last game if the center from st marys stays out of foul troubl could be good game. Also gonzaga going 4 a number 1. should be good game. if pitt covers then i may follow

KVB · 03-07-17, 04:56 PM

The sharpest forecast I make has Gonzaga winning 68-66.

The non predictive public gauge shows Gonzaga winning 68-63.

The line seems low to the general public eye and they are no doubt flocking towards it. Sharper forecasters and modelers obviously know something different in their details and can see why the line has moved to where it has and the total sits where it sits.

This game could get interesting as the line movement really can increase action on the favorite, just read some posts in this thread.

TPowell · 03-07-17, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The sharpest forecast I make has Gonzaga winning 68-66.

The non predictive public gauge shows Gonzaga winning 68-63.

The line seems low to the general public eye and they are no doubt flocking towards it. Sharper forecasters and modelers obviously know something different in their details and can see why the line has moved to where it has and the total sits where it sits.

This game could get interesting as the line movement really can increase action on the favorite, just read some posts in this thread.

LOL, "sharper forecasters and modelers". Gonzaga was a 4 point fave AT Saint Mary's about 3 weeks ago. All this is is an overreaction to Saint Mary's looking like world beaters last night and Gonzaga's loss to BYU and then poor effort last night.

KVB · 03-07-17, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

LOL, "sharper forecasters and modelers". Gonzaga was a 4 point fave AT Saint Mary's about 3 weeks ago. All this is is an overreaction to Saint Mary's looking like world beaters last night and Gonzaga's loss to BYU and then poor effort last night.

I agreed, there is over reaction on both sides of this line. I was just explaining why it is where it is and why it is moving where it moves.

In my opinion, the bigger over reaction is pounding Gonzaga simply because it goes from -5 to -4 as though some extra real value is created. It may be successful short term, but my conclusions show it's destined to fall long term.

There are many ways to handicap, but sometimes the illusion of value comes no matter what.

In my opinion, the total and the spread are fairly tight even if 1 point movement occurs here.

RGG · 03-07-17, 05:25 PM

Gonzaga spread

Otters27 · 03-07-17, 05:49 PM

Only betting the Conference Championships tonight. Got my friend to let me copy the tickets. Good luck posters

$3.00	$6.45	Pending	3/7/17 7:00pm Reduced Basketball 713 Wisc Milwaukee +215* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Northern Kentucky
$3.00	$5.55	Pending	3/7/17 9:00pm Reduced Basketball 715 Saint Mary's CA +185* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Gonzaga
$10.50	$7.00	Pending	3/7/17 9:00pm Reduced Basketball 723 South Dakota State -150* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Nebraska Omaha
$3.00	$5.70	Pending	3/7/17 7:00pm Reduced Basketball 725 St. Francis PA +190* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Mount St. Mary's

HAPPY BOY · 03-07-17, 05:58 PM

buy low sell high think Zaga not getting love St Marys the new darling..phuk it give me Zaga -4.5

Lakers714 · 03-07-17, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

LOL, "sharper forecasters and modelers". Gonzaga was a 4 point fave AT Saint Mary's about 3 weeks ago. All this is is an overreaction to Saint Mary's looking like world beaters last night and Gonzaga's loss to BYU and then poor effort last night.

This post is spot on in my opinion. I've bet on St Mary's the past couple games and watched them destroy mediocre talent. Yes I know BYU beat the Zags but I see that as more of a wake up call for them than a reflection of what their team is. 2 head to head games and Zags won both handily. Rahon is also banged up and I feel Jock will have trouble against Karnowski. Just my 2 cents. I took Zags ML for a good amount.

RangeFinder · 03-07-17, 06:14 PM

Good luck, Otters. If you see that line snap back, beware. That indicates a head fake by sharps.

ManOfValue · 03-07-17, 06:17 PM

So 3rd time is a charm? last time they played St mary's improved on the 20+ point loss they suffered the first time around.

TPowell · 03-07-17, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I agreed, there is over reaction on both sides of this line. I was just explaining why it is where it is and why it is moving where it moves.

In my opinion, the bigger over reaction is pounding Gonzaga simply because it goes from -5 to -4 as though some extra real value is created. It may be successful short term, but my conclusions show it's destined to fall long term.

There are many ways to handicap, but sometimes the illusion of value comes no matter what.

In my opinion, the total and the spread are fairly tight even if 1 point movement occurs here.

A line moving from 5 to 4 is a huge deal. That IS extra value IMO. If I made Gonzaga -7 or so, the move down to -4 would be THE reason I play the game basically

TPowell · 03-07-17, 06:34 PM

Only reason I'm not going huge is Landale DID play well in both meetings but was saddled with foul trouble (19 and 25 mins in 2 games). I feel like Gonzaga puts up a home run effort here though, more so than the previous 2 meetings. May not win by same margins but should win comfortably

MUHerd37 · 03-07-17, 06:44 PM

Zags need to win to get the #1 seed.

KVB · 03-07-17, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

A line moving from 5 to 4 is a huge deal. That IS extra value IMO. If I made Gonzaga -7 or so, the move down to -4 would be THE reason I play the game basically

I agree, my point is that those forecasters finding that value may be off here...even though I acknowledge there are many ways to handicap and successful strategies can differ significantly even among games.

In this particular case I think those giving Gonzaga a 7 point or more win are off on the forecast. I think there is less room for disagreement here. Many will see the market opening and movement a confirmation of this as it's moved towards the closer line, but I think it's best not to overstate market movement and reverse line movement tests for this individual case.

Even though it is a conference tournament, it's still a tournament. This usually requires an adjustment that that bettors take a while to make (and usually only get it coincidentally when adjusting for other factors).

When getting to the Big Dance, the adjustment must be made as conferences are pitted against each other.

Good Luck Powell.

Regul8er · 03-07-17, 06:57 PM

Wait, why should St. Mary's win this game??

I think its a terrible matchup for them. Gonzaga shredded them up both times this season with their size, strength and athletic ability. I'll definately be watching this game, and I can assure you I'll be rooting for the Gaels, but I just don't see it.

Philmill · 03-07-17, 07:00 PM

Zaga blow out..........dont over think this one..........!!!

ManOfValue · 03-07-17, 07:13 PM

If I saw a -4 I would probably lay that. Can't make an argument for Saint Mary's in this one.

KVB · 03-07-17, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by RangeFinder

Good luck, Otters. If you see that line snap back, beware. That indicates a head fake by sharps.

I think we may see something different. At -4.5 it looks tasty to the public, but any move to 5 brings in advantage players. Some will hit and will hit hard.

Remember, I'm not talking about people who are betting on the players or teams. I'm not talking about players who are betting who will win or lose or cover or not.

I'm talking about players and groups that play into a line. They play numbers over a long haul, a very long haul. They seek value and gobble when they can.

Win or lose, they see value in +5. The market is exploiting this and generating plenty of action on a big game for everyone.

Might be an interesting game down the stretch.

Otters27 · 03-07-17, 08:24 PM

St. Francis Blew lead. Milwaukee still in the hunt.