Why I'm Betting The Patriots

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Better defense. Defense wins Super Bowls.

Lowest scored upon D in league. On a team that went 14-2 and seldom trailed. Were in prevent half the time and still didn't give up many points. They give up yards between the 20's, but then tighten up and hold 'em to a FG. Almost always win the turnover battle.

Lay the 3 and also play the Under.

As always, best of luck
Harry

[RudyRuetigger]

what sport

[DOM_Toretto]

Harry!

Defense wins championships, true. #1 scoring D in the league. But then I went back and looked at schedule - and holy FUKK patriots have no good regular season wins so I throw that #1 D stat out.

This is a tough matchup. Bill will take away Julio - then the Falcons run game goes off. Or vice versa. Tough tough matchup. Can't figure it out yet.

[The Giant]

Harry, I've heard you've won 17 out of 20 Super Bowls.

Please confirm.

[ManOfValue]

YES! People seem to forget how many shitty teams the Pats faced. Doesn't mean they will lose but worth mention. Also worth mentioning how well the Atlanta D! has played. never thought I would be saying that.

Harry!

Defense wins championships, true. #1 scoring D in the league. But then I went back and looked at schedule - and holy FUKK patriots have no good regular season wins so I throw that #1 D stat out.

This is a tough matchup. Bill will take away Julio - then the Falcons run game goes off. Or vice versa. Tough tough matchup. Can't figure it out yet.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Harry, I've heard you've won 17 out of 20 Super Bowls.

Please confirm.

It's true. But only because I tail Brandon Lang.

[Bostongambler]

So harry what you are saying is " There is a chance"!!!

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Boyz, it's the NFL. No team can go through an entire season 14-2, then win 2 more playoff games, but have critics say they didn't face anyone. They faced whomever the NFL put in their way. This week it's the Falcons. Both teams have great offenses, Atlanta's probably even better. But the Pats have the better defense, pure and simple. Defense wins the big ones. Look it up.

[jjgold]

Why??


Tom Brady

[BIGDAY]

Tom Brady. Nuff said.

[GunShard]

Good points mentioned in this thread about the teams defense stats can be false by easy schedule opponents. Both teams have equally average defenses.

[chico2663]

i disagree. The falcons d is better than advertised. They score so quick that their d spends a lot of time on the field. All I know is i played sea d against them and he didn't do shit.

[tony_come]

Which team have more black players?

More will win the game

Less will lose the game

[JIBBBY]

Besides the fact that defense wins championships like OP said,

Tom Brady has been to the super bowl 6 times and won 4 of them.. Giants were the only team to beat them in the superbowls and the Patriots aren't facing the Giants and Eli this time around..

Tom Brady's numbers have gotten better with each super bowl he's been in as well.. Hard to bet against that..

Super Bowl

2001	XXXVI	NE	STL	16	27	59.3	145	5.4	1	0	86.2	1	3	3.0	0
2003	XXXVIII	NE	CAR	32	48	66.7	354	7.4	3	1	100.5	2	12	6.0	0
2004	XXXIX	NE	PHI	23	33	69.7	236	7.2	2	0	110.2	1	−1	−1.0	0
2007	XLII	NE	NYG	29	48	60.4	266	5.5	1	0	82.5	0	0	0	0
2011	XLVI	NE	NYG	27	41	65.9	276	6.7	2	1	91.5	0	0	0	0
2014	XLIX	NE	SEA	37	50	74.0	328	6.6	4	2	101.1	2	−3	−1.5	0
2016	LI	NE	ATL

[offguard]

Besides the fact that defense wins championships like OP said,

Tom Brady has been to the super bowl 6 times and won 4 of them.. Giants were the only team to beat them in the superbowls and the Patriots aren't facing the Giants and Eli this time around..

Tom Brady's numbers have gotten better with each super bowl he's been in as well.. Hard to bet against that..

Super Bowl

2001	XXXVI	NE	STL	16	27	59.3	145	5.4	1		86.2	1	3	3.0
2003	XXXVIII	NE	CAR	32	48	66.7	354	7.4	3	1	100.5	2	12	6.0
2004	XXXIX	NE	PHI	23	33	69.7	236	7.2	2		110.2	1	−1	−1.0
2007	XLII	NE	NYG	29	48	60.4	266	5.5	1		82.5
2011	XLVI	NE	NYG	27	41	65.9	276	6.7	2	1	91.5
2014	XLIX	NE	SEA	37	50	74.0	328	6.6	4	2	101.1	2	−3	−1.5
2016	LI	NE	ATL

Good research Jib, I was starting to get "buyers remorse" with my NE bet. In addition the 6 previous Brady bowls sez he win 3 by 3pts & 2015 by 4pts. Both losses to the Giants were also exactly 3 pts. In 20 previous SB's the total has only gone over 58 3 times So I am now thinking an under wager of 2 units to hedge the possibility of a dreaded "push" GL

[JIBBBY]

Good research Jib, I was starting to get "buyers remorse" with my NE bet. In addition the 6 previous Brady bowls sez he win 3 by 3pts & 2015 by 4pts. Both losses to the Giants were also exactly 3 pts. In 20 previous SB's the total has only gone over 58 3 times So I am now thinking an under wager of 2 units to hedge the possibility of a dreaded "push" GL

Yep, all indicators point to the Patriots and Tom Brady winning this thing.. Still Atlanta is high powered on offense and you never know, you can crunch numbers, stats and trends til you're blue in the face and still lose.. That's sports..

I'm on the Pats and going with it.. We'll see and GL as it's the most logical choice.

[chico2663]

Jibs do you take in account that the underdog has covered 7 of the last 9 sbowls including 6 of them . Or how about the last 4 underdogs won out right. New england doesn't have the speed to keep up with atlanta. Just my opinion but I could see atl winning by double digits. Besides jj and twizzler are on new england so you are SO screwed

[JIBBBY]

Jibs do you take in account that the underdog has covered 7 of the last 9 sbowls including 6 of them . Or how about the last 4 underdogs won out right. New england doesn't have the speed to keep up with atlanta. Just my opinion but I could see atl winning by double digits. Besides jj and twizzler are on new england so you are SO screwed

I do, dogs always win in these frigg'n superbowls but since the Patriots have been to the dance 6 times and won 4 of them that curse of dogs winning should be broken..

Any other team but the Patriots and Tom Brady being the favorite and I would have considered the dog winning for sure..

[Fatal1ty]

Pats have faced zero, count'em, ZERO, top 10 QBs this year. Bet your fuggin' house on Pats if you want, but they've had a soft schedule this year. Sad!

[importmoon]

PUSH !!!
Kidding me... Vegas hates PUSH..
Vegas hates offset bets...
Vegas loves landslides actions...
last but not least.. Vegas loves Dogs and Under... If Vegas depends on Vig or Juices...they will be Belly Up...You have no idea how much clam they need to survive daily to survive...

[Fatal1ty]

Everyone and their Aunt Sally are on the Over. I think books make their month on the Under coming thru on his one.

[chico2663]

only way ne wins is if it is a shoot out

[recon1]

Tom Brady. Nuff said.

That thinking is how Vegas was built.

[JayDr3am]

only way ne wins is if it is a shoot out

loses.

[Elton Jack]

6 previous Brady bowls sez he win 3 by 3pts & 2015 by 4pts.

so he never won sb by more than 4 pts? now im thinking just buy falcons up to 4.5 and collect easy money?

[JayLA]

With all the money on the pats, why hasn't the line moved? Books don't wanna hang up +4?

[trevor123698]

"were in prevent half the time"

This guy seriously just wrote that a Bill Belicheck led team played prevent "half the time"...wow

[Andy117]

only way ne wins is if it is a shoot out

They don't want a shoot out. Their offense is good but not at Atlanta's level. A tight defensive game suits them better.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Falcons

[michlafon15]

Who has ATL played that makes their schedule better

They lost to eagles chargers and tb

[44 Mag]

	-2.5	Ov 46.5	-134
09/18	Oakland	W 35-28	Away	1-1	0-1	+4.0	Ov 47.5	+175
09/26	New Orleans	W 45-32	Away	2-1	1-1	+2.5	Ov 54.0	+141
10/02	Carolina	W 48-33	Home	3-1	2-1	+2.5	Ov 48.5	+125
10/09	Denver	W 23-16	Away	4-1	2-1	+3.5	Un 44.5	+175
10/16	Seattle	L 24-26	Away	4-2	2-1	+7.0	Ov 45.5	+258
10/23	San Diego	L 30-33	Home	4-3	2-1	-4.5	Ov 52.5	-208
10/30	Green Bay	W 33-32	Home	5-3	2-1	-3.0	Ov 51.0	-154
11/03	Tampa Bay	W 43-28	Away	6-3	3-1	-4.5	Ov 49.0	-208
11/13	Philadelphia	L 15-24	Away	6-4	3-1	+2.0	Un 48.5	+111
11/27	Arizona	W 38-19	Home	7-4	3-1	-3.5	Ov 49.0	-187
12/04	Kansas City	L 28-29	Home	7-5	3-1	-5.0	Ov 50.0	-212
12/11	Los Angeles	W 42-14	Away	8-5	3-1	-4.5	Ov 44.0	-208
12/18	San Francisco	W 41-13	Home	9-5	3-1	-13.5	Ov 51.5	-900
12/24	Carolina	W 33-16	Away	10-5	4-1	-3.0	Pu 49.0	-150
01/01	New Orleans	W 38-32	Home	11-5	5-1	-7.5	Ov 58.5	-350
01/14	Seattle	W 36-20	Home	12-5	5-1	-6.5	Ov 51.0	-272
01/22	Green Bay	W 44-21	Home	13-5	5-1	-6.5	Ov 59.5	-242
02/05

[Snowball]

see how many points Atlanta has to put up to have a winning chance ?

Patriots ain't gonna let that happen.

Patriots defense is on top of their game.

This could be a blowout.

[michlafon15]

	-2.5	Ov 46.5	-134
09/18	Oakland	W 35-28	Away	1-1	0-1	+4.0	Ov 47.5	+175
09/26	New Orleans	W 45-32	Away	2-1	1-1	+2.5	Ov 54.0	+141
10/02	Carolina	W 48-33	Home	3-1	2-1	+2.5	Ov 48.5	+125
10/09	Denver	W 23-16	Away	4-1	2-1	+3.5	Un 44.5	+175
10/16	Seattle	L 24-26	Away	4-2	2-1	+7.0	Ov 45.5	+258
10/23	San Diego	L 30-33	Home	4-3	2-1	-4.5	Ov 52.5	-208
10/30	Green Bay	W 33-32	Home	5-3	2-1	-3.0	Ov 51.0	-154
11/03	Tampa Bay	W 43-28	Away	6-3	3-1	-4.5	Ov 49.0	-208
11/13	Philadelphia	L 15-24	Away	6-4	3-1	+2.0	Un 48.5	+111
11/27	Arizona	W 38-19	Home	7-4	3-1	-3.5	Ov 49.0	-187
12/04	Kansas City	L 28-29	Home	7-5	3-1	-5.0	Ov 50.0	-212
12/11	Los Angeles	W 42-14	Away	8-5	3-1	-4.5	Ov 44.0	-208
12/18	San Francisco	W 41-13	Home	9-5	3-1	-13.5	Ov 51.5	-900
12/24	Carolina	W 33-16	Away	10-5	4-1	-3.0	Pu 49.0	-150
01/01	New Orleans	W 38-32	Home	11-5	5-1	-7.5	Ov 58.5	-350
01/14	Seattle	W 36-20	Home	12-5	5-1	-6.5	Ov 51.0	-272
01/22	Green Bay	W 44-21	Home	13-5	5-1	-6.5	Ov 59.5	-242
02/05

Where is the teams that make their schedule better then pats

[Harry N. Lloyd]

"were in prevent half the time"

This guy seriously just wrote that a Bill Belicheck led team played prevent "half the time"...wow

Hey, Vince Lombardi, what do you call it when a team has a huge lead so their defense allows time-consuming underneath routes and run plays but takes away the quick-strike long ball? That's the defense these Pats played half the time this year.

[Da Manster!]

see how many points Atlanta has to put up to have a winning chance ?

Patriots ain't gonna let that happen.

Patriots defense is on top of their game.

This could be a blowout.

Patriots defense at the top of their game?!!........on second thought........The Pats had a good defense because the offenses that they played were god awful!...anyhow, without further ado, the Jets twice (#26 in total offense), Miami twice (#24), Buffalo twice (#16), San Fran (#31), LA Rams (#32..dead last), Denver (#27), Houston (#29), Cleveland (#30)!....need I say more?...Like I said before, this is the game where the Pats are going to miss Gronk...with him, I would most certainly bet New England and lay the FG...but this is when the cream rises to the top...Atlanta throttled Seattle 36 - 20 (yes, the same Seahawk team that beat the Pats in New England!)...and a red, hot, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers 44 - 21!...I'm not taking anything away from the Pats...As long as Belechick and Brady are together, the Pats will always be a formidable team...but this is Matt Ryan's MVP year and I don't think he and the Falcons will be denied...PS...if New England does happen to win, I can't wait to see the look on Roger Goddell's face when he hands the Lombardi trophy to Tom Brady!...