PATRIOT/FALCON Super Bowl Thread. Discussion and Analysis. NO TROLLS

**Cuse0323** · 01-23-17, 02:38 AM

Goat, appreciate it, and think you're one of the best around. You actually post insight into your plays.

I already did it. Had Pats ML lined up, but changed my mind. I know that Brady, and Belichick aren't losing to Matt Ryan, and the Falcons. Just was sick of thinking so much about it. I do think it will be a good one, and close.

Just hoping it happens to be Matty's day. I think Vic Beasely, and the pass rush could disrupt Brady. That's their only chance. Brady probably destroys any blitzes, so they have to get pressure with 4. Also, playing man to man helps.

I agree on nerves. It's probably not their time. I flipped a coin, and this is where it led me. $500 lost won't kill me. Gotta bet on the SB, so fck it.

**astro61200** · 01-23-17, 02:42 AM

Falcons are going to roll them, Cuse. No need to worry. NE's defense is a fraud perpetuated by the lack of offensively skilled teams they've faced.

Sit back and watch the Falcons offense provide the fireworks that lead us to victory

**Cuse0323** · 01-23-17, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by astro61200

Falcons are going to roll them, Cuse. No need to worry. NE's defense is a fraud perpetuated by the lack of offensively skilled teams they've faced.

Sit back and watch the Falcons offense provide the fireworks that lead us to victory

Of course I hope you're right, but it isn't going to be a cakewalk. The NE secondary is pretty damn good. I do think they are vulnerable when it comes to their LBs covering across the middle. So, Coleman and Freeman could have big days receiving.

I made my bet quick so I didn't drive myself insane for two weeks, or lose everything and not be able to bet.

Only time will tell. I'm really not a fan of the week off at all. Shiiiit, Falcons and Pats fans are gonna die during the bye week, and miss out. Well, that's life.

**astro61200** · 01-23-17, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

LOL Matt Ryan is a better QB than Brady? You'll see what happens to Matt Ryan in the superbowl when he gets pushed off his spots. You just start watching Matt Ryan this year?

ATL has a better defense than New England? Wow. You're going to eat those words. Mark these words. I want them quoted after the superbowl. Want all my analysis quotes. Oh yeah I was on ATL today and said they would beat GB easily...

Congrats. I also said the Pats would ass rape the Steelers. The Patriots haven't played anyone with an offense since Seattle (who they lost to and gave up 31 points to). Big Ben is garbage on the road, Bell went down with an injury. Steelers couldn't even muster a single TD last week on the road.

Also, yes Ryan is, at this moment, the better QB between he and Brady. Did I just start watching Matt Ryan this year? Nope. Have you watched Matt Ryan this year? When I put "Better QB (at this very moment)" that means that Ryan is playing better than Brady. It also means that the past doesn't really matter. Did I say Ryan was the better career QB? Nope.

As for your instance that Ryan will freak out under pressure. You, literally, couldn't be more wrong:

Ryan had the highest QB rating in situations where 5 or more pass rushers were coming. That mark was 123.2. He also had the 2nd most passing TD's in those situations with 13. Oh, and zero picks.

Next Gen Stats: A case for the three MVP quarterbacks

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000773869/article/next-gen-stats-a-case-for-the-three-mvp-quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady each have a legitimate case to make for the rights to take home MVP honors. Matt Harmon uses Next Gen Stats to make the case for each.

So, the real question is have you watched Matt Ryan at all this year?

**chico2663** · 01-23-17, 03:14 AM

ne isn't fast enough to keep up with them on dirt. What do you think is going to happen on turf, Seattle couldn't run the ball on atl. Gb has a better line than ne . They couldn't halt shit. Yes they were dinged up. Last four underdogs in sbowl won out right and I can't see it stopping. This isn't the tom brady of yesteryear. This one gets flushed in the pocket. Hell if htn has a qb then we aren't even talking ne in sbowl.

**DOM-Ganador** · 01-23-17, 12:01 PM

I am convinced. Shit fellas, so many experts making legit cases for the Falcons being an unstoppable force.
They are going to put up 50 and runaway with the title. Pats are smoke and mirrors. Will be exposed as frauds.

If this keeps up, the Falcons are going to be favorites by game time. Wrap your head around it.
Take ATL TT over, get on those alternate lines at +$, Matty Ice MVP is a +$ lock. Don`t miss the boat.

**JIBBBY** · 01-23-17, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Plaza23

The last great offense the Patriots faced in the Super Bowl was the Rams, and they shut them down. I expect them to do the same with the Falcons.

Patriots win 27-17

I agree, it's safe to say the Pitt defense is stronger then the Atlanta defense also and the Pats ripped them to shreds yesterday.. The over might be the best play in the Superbowl.. I can see the Pats and Falcons scoring alot in this game if anything else..

**BigdaddyQH** · 01-23-17, 01:48 PM

I can argue this game both ways. Atlanta has, by far, the superior offense. Ryan uses all of his receivers. He forces defenses to go back to single man coverage on Julio. New England has the superior defense and the experience. The game is playing indoors, an advantage for Atlanta. The fans will be for Atlanta. The problem is that this has been a rather terrible post season as far as exciting games are concerned. In the last 27 Superbowls, 17 have been routs and 10 have been relatively close. Yesterday's Over the total wager between the Falcons and the Packers was the easiest bet in many a year. I cannot see this game going under. The Total opened at 57 1/2 and is now up to 59. Those who got in early will profit by that. Atlanta is averaging 40 ppg in their last 6 games. New England has the same average in their last 4 games. Notice how many points have been scored in "garbage time".

**johnnyvegas13** · 01-23-17, 01:50 PM

I'm definitely taking Atlanta

line might dance around but won't get to 3.5

books smart art here despite public on pats

**Notorious_Donk** · 01-23-17, 02:15 PM

Fixed. Goodell does NOT want to hand that trophy to Brady and Kraft.

Falcons roll, take ML

**Bostongambler** · 01-23-17, 03:17 PM

Pats # 1 scoring D. Falcons # 1 scoring O. Last 6 out of 7 SB's have gone to the D. Should be a good game.

**JIBBBY** · 01-23-17, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by Bostongambler

Pats # 1 scoring D. Falcons # 1 scoring O. Last 6 out of 7 SB's have gone to the D. Should be a good game.

Defense wins championships in most sports including football.

I remember a couple of defensive minded football teams off the top of my head in the Ravens and Tampa Bay Bucs winning it years ago... These Atlanta Falcons aren't a defensive power house this year.. They win games by outscoring their opponents period..

If the Packers didn't fumble or turn over the ball early on that could have been a different game.. Packers defense was getting some stops as the game went on and that Packer defense is garbage.. Pats have a much better defense then the Packers..

**shocka1212** · 01-23-17, 07:13 PM

I'm taking New England - 2.5... really don't think this one is going to be close. Every dynasty has its Mona Lisa moment in the super bowl and this is going to be it for the pats.. really think they put up a 50 spot on the Falcons.

**DOM-Ganador** · 01-23-17, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by shocka1212

I'm taking New England - 2.5... really don't think this one is going to be close. Every dynasty has its Mona Lisa moment in the super bowl and this is going to be it for the pats.. really think they put up a 50 spot on the Falcons.

Total only @ 58 or so.
If you really think the Pats going for 30++, then the over is happening. Pats aren`t holding that offense, in a dome, on turf to under 21++. So 58 seems very doable.

**shocka1212** · 01-23-17, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by DOM-Ganador

Total only @ 58 or so.
If you really think the Pats going for 30++, then the over is happening. Pats aren`t holding that offense, in a dome, on turf to under 21++. So 58 seems very doable.

It's not turf. It's indoors, but natural grass.. they'll Eric Rowe and a safety on Julio and then put Butler on Sanu. As far as the ATL defense, that rookie safety is good but too young. Gonna be a long day for him

**ABEHONEST** · 01-23-17, 09:17 PM

Here are two Bookies on Super Bowl Day.

Play if you have the itch, but guess what's the favorite day of the year for Bookies? Yep, you're right.

**astro61200** · 01-24-17, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

Play if you have the itch, but guess what's the favorite day of the year for Bookies? Yep, you're right.

Of course it is, you have the majority of people taking the Pats because of their defense. Yet they fail to see the Pats padded all those stats with the Jets, Rams, 49ers, and the bottom third of the offensive team leaders.

**GunShard** · 01-24-17, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Defense wins championships in most sports including football.

I remember a couple of defensive minded football teams off the top of my head in the Ravens and Tampa Bay Bucs winning it years ago... These Atlanta Falcons aren't a defensive power house this year.. They win games by outscoring their opponents period..

If the Packers didn't fumble or turn over the ball early on that could have been a different game.. Packers defense was getting some stops as the game went on and that Packer defense is garbage.. Pats have a much better defense then the Packers..

Be aware that not every NFL season will have defensive teams winning the championship.
This years super bowl have offensive teams winning the championship. The 2010 Colts vs Saints super bowl would be an example of the season of offensive teams.

**Seaweed** · 01-24-17, 01:12 AM

Serious question

The line for ATL over 2.5 TDs is -200

Would you risk that juice taking the over?

**convick** · 01-24-17, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

Be aware that not every NFL season will have defensive teams winning the championship.
This years super bowl have offensive teams winning the championship. The 2010 Colts vs Saints super bowl would be an example of the season of offensive teams.

I think the colts had a slightly better D than the saints by the numbers that year. NO had a top 20 all time scoring offense.

Interesting note about the highest scoring offenses in history: out all the teams that averaged over 32 points per game in the regular season, only the 1999 rams have won a super bowl. They had the best defense from that group of 16 teams, allowing about 15 ppg on d. 7 of these historic offenses lost the sb and the rest didnt even reach it.

**astro61200** · 01-24-17, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by Seaweed

Serious question

The line for ATL over 2.5 TDs is -200

Would you risk that juice taking the over?

Yes. It's about as sure of a win as you can get. Will probably cover before halftime. Tho could get their team total at -110 which wouldn't be many more points than 3 TDs

**Seaweed** · 01-24-17, 04:21 AM

Originally posted by astro61200

Yes. It's about as sure of a win as you can get. Will probably cover before halftime. Tho could get their team total at -110 which wouldn't be many more points than 3 TDs

Thanks for feedback

Wonder who likes the under here

**astro61200** · 01-24-17, 04:55 AM

Originally posted by Seaweed

Thanks for feedback

Wonder who likes the under here

This game is going over. Neither defense is that great. ATL is putting up, at least, 31. Was on the over in the ATL game on Sunday. Going to be on the over again in this. Also on ATL TT over as well.

**DOM-Ganador** · 01-24-17, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by astro61200

This game is going over. Neither defense is that great. ATL is putting up, at least, 31. Was on the over in the ATL game on Sunday. Going to be on the over again in this. Also on ATL TT over as well.

I agree. Can`t see ATL not going over 27.5/28 TT. They are going to score more than 2.5 TD`s.

Pats win though, Tight game, ATL makes the big mistake late.

**Calgunner23** · 01-24-17, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by Seaweed

Serious question

The line for ATL over 2.5 TDs is -200

Would you risk that juice taking the over?

Easy money. 34-28 Pats

**Bluehorseshoe** · 01-24-17, 01:31 PM

Aaron Hernandez has officially been ruled out again for the Pats.

**INVEGA MAN** · 01-24-17, 01:36 PM

I don't believe NE will throw on every down. I think they want to slow it down against Atlanta

**hrsssdog** · 01-24-17, 01:42 PM

To go against the Pats is unthinkable. Look at their wins ATS. Love Matty Ice, he will play well and score points. However, we're talking 2 GOATS with experience like never before. This team is ready to take it all. Balance and chemistry bar none, end of story.

**DOM-Ganador** · 01-24-17, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

Aaron Hernandez has officially been ruled out again for the Pats.

Just saw that his double murder trial (separate from his "other" murder conviction) has been delayed 2 weeks.
Why is it necessary to spend all that money on a criminal trial when the guy is already doing life??
I could understand a civil case if the psycho has any money left.

That guy snowed the fukk out of the Pats. He got a second contract for some good change and Kraft was singing his praises. BUT, delving deeper into his behavior, plenty of players came out after and said " saw trouble with this kid".
Monday morning QB`s.

**calmeat** · 01-24-17, 02:55 PM

Alright here are some trends i found like 8 years ago. I was updating it every year but the past 3 years i forgot to update and then just last week updated the stats. The percentages are a bit off and dont reflect past couple years. But here they are hope it helps. I Love ATL but can see it being a close game. The trends however favor ATL.

1. Favorites in the Super Bowl are 31-18 SU and own an ATS mark of 22-25-3 (49%). However, over the past 13 years, the underdog owns a 10-3 ATS edge.
NEP SU ATL ATS

2. The NFC holds a 26-23 SU and 26-20-3 (57%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 6-7 SU but 9-4 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.
ATL ATS
3. The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed was just 1-13-2 ATS (6%) in the 17 Super Bowl games heading into last season! Super Bowl XLIV didn’t factor into this because both Indianapolis and New Orleans were No. 1 seeds out of their respective conferences.
ATL ATS
4.The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-16 SU. (Note: 5 times the teams had identical won-loss marks.)
NEP SU
5.The team with the better Win-Loss record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-13-2 ATS (27%) slide.
ATL ATS

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.6 PPG, an average winning margin of 14.5 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

6.The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 3-11-1 ATS (20%) over the last 15 years.
NEP ATS

There have been 19 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record: 0-19 SU & ATS (0%).

7.Teams that avg rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 37-12 SU & 34-12-3 ATS (77%).
ATL SU ATL ATS

8.Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 40-8 SU & 34-11-3 ATS (75%).
ATL 8.798 nep 7.83 ATL SU ATL ATS

9.In the 46 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just 5 SU and 7 ATS (13%).
NEP 14 ATL 11 = ATL SU ATL ATS

10.Teams that win the time of possession battle are 34-13 SU & 33-11-3 ATS (74%).
ATL RegSeason 30:22 PostSeason 33:29 NEP RegSeason 31:13 Postseason29:28

11.Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 38-2 SU & 34-5-1 ATS (87%).
ATL SU ATL ATS
12.Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS loss versus the Patriots
ATL SU ATL ATS - Going with Playoff TOP
13.The Super Bowl team that averages fewer yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-11-2 ATS (38%) in the last 22 games.
- nep=3.9, ATL=4.6 ATL ATS

14.The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 4-8 ATS (13%) over the last 12 years.
ATL +15 NEP +14 NEP ATS
15.The Super Bowl team that allows more yards per rushing attempt on defense is 5-11-2 ATS (31%) in the last 18 games.
NEP 3.9 ATL 4.5 NEP ATS

**DOM-Ganador** · 01-24-17, 03:12 PM

VERY good work Calmeat. #7 and #15 I find very interesting. ATL rushes better/avg on offense.77% win rate
Pats run D/avg better, 69% win rate. Of course if either team gets out of gate quick, 2 scores or so, the running games will be a whole lot less relevant.

7.Teams that avg rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 37-12 SU & 34-12-3 ATS (77%).
ATL SU ATL ATS

15.The Super Bowl team that allows more yards per rushing attempt on defense is 5-11-2 ATS (31%) in the last 18 games.
NEP 3.9 ATL 4.5 NEP ATS

**calmeat** · 01-24-17, 04:03 PM

Just want to say again dont pay attention to the % since they were from 2013, The records are correct though...The % are pretty close to what they should be. I didnt do the math again to come up with the current % sorry didnt have time do it.

Originally posted by DOM-Ganador

VERY good work Calmeat. #7 and #15 I find very interesting. ATL rushes better/avg on offense.77% win rate
Pats run D/avg better, 69% win rate. Of course if either team gets out of gate quick, 2 scores or so, the running games will be a whole lot less relevant.

7.Teams that avg rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 37-12 SU & 34-12-3 ATS (77%).
ATL SU ATL ATS

15.The Super Bowl team that allows more yards per rushing attempt on defense is 5-11-2 ATS (31%) in the last 18 games.
NEP 3.9 ATL 4.5 NEP ATS

**DOM-Ganador** · 01-27-17, 12:46 PM

Anyone else wondering if:

1) Will the line ever move off the 3 ?? Despite SBR showing a bit more interest in the Pats, all I can find is
closer to 50/50 splits.

2) If any player/coach on either team is going to say/do anything remotely controversial??
All we are getting is mutual BJ`s from both sides.

**ABEHONEST** · 01-27-17, 07:42 PM

Falcon money is coming in today. What do these bettor's know that these Book's do not know?
Most fans would have believed New England would have been a 6 point favorite at least?
There's something fishy in Lobster Country?

Will Atlanta deflate the ball, or do the opposite, inflate it to a sizable round ball, leading Brady in to a confused mind, full of jelly?

**chico2663** · 01-28-17, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by calmeat

Alright here are some trends i found like 8 years ago. I was updating it every year but the past 3 years i forgot to update and then just last week updated the stats. The percentages are a bit off and dont reflect past couple years. But here they are hope it helps. I Love ATL but can see it being a close game. The trends however favor ATL.

1. Favorites in the Super Bowl are 31-18 SU and own an ATS mark of 22-25-3 (49%). However, over the past 13 years, the underdog owns a 10-3 ATS edge.
NEP SU ATL ATS

2. The NFC holds a 26-23 SU and 26-20-3 (57%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 6-7 SU but 9-4 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.
ATL ATS
3. The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed was just 1-13-2 ATS (6%) in the 17 Super Bowl games heading into last season! Super Bowl XLIV didn’t factor into this because both Indianapolis and New Orleans were No. 1 seeds out of their respective conferences.
ATL ATS
4.The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-16 SU. (Note: 5 times the teams had identical won-loss marks.)
NEP SU
5.The team with the better Win-Loss record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-13-2 ATS (27%) slide.
ATL ATS

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.6 PPG, an average winning margin of 14.5 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

6.The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 3-11-1 ATS (20%) over the last 15 years.
NEP ATS

There have been 19 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record: 0-19 SU & ATS (0%).

7.Teams that avg rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 37-12 SU & 34-12-3 ATS (77%).
ATL SU ATL ATS

8.Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 40-8 SU & 34-11-3 ATS (75%).
ATL 8.798 nep 7.83 ATL SU ATL ATS

9.In the 46 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just 5 SU and 7 ATS (13%).
NEP 14 ATL 11 = ATL SU ATL ATS

10.Teams that win the time of possession battle are 34-13 SU & 33-11-3 ATS (74%).
ATL RegSeason 30:22 PostSeason 33:29 NEP RegSeason 31:13 Postseason29:28

11.Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 38-2 SU & 34-5-1 ATS (87%).
ATL SU ATL ATS
12.Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS loss versus the Patriots
ATL SU ATL ATS - Going with Playoff TOP
13.The Super Bowl team that averages fewer yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-11-2 ATS (38%) in the last 22 games.
- nep=3.9, ATL=4.6 ATL ATS

14.The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 4-8 ATS (13%) over the last 12 years.
ATL +15 NEP +14 NEP ATS
15.The Super Bowl team that allows more yards per rushing attempt on defense is 5-11-2 ATS (31%) in the last 18 games.
NEP 3.9 ATL 4.5 NEP ATS

Last 4 sbowls the underdog has won out right. Also sanu in 2014 against new england with andy dalton caught 5 catches -70 yrds and td. think they spread ne out and do to them what ne usually does to other teams. Ne usually goes to 3 or 5 step drop which makes it hard for other teams to get to brady. I think atl can get pressure without having to blitz. 38-24 atlanta wins

PATRIOT/FALCON Super Bowl Thread. Discussion and Analysis. **NO TROLLS**

PATRIOT/FALCON Super Bowl Thread. Discussion and Analysis. NO TROLLS