An example how you cannot outsmart the bookmakers

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  • Seaweed
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 01-19-12
    • 26320

    #1
    An example how you cannot outsmart the bookmakers
    Minnesota Timbs 1st Q Points: 31; 2nd Q Points 41

    Line for their Team Total for 3rd was 21.5 @-115

    Being the sucker that I am i fell for it

    They scored 19

    How do they know?
  • dlowilly
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-09-16
    • 13870

    #2
    That is pretty weird

    I was going to say maybe they score less in the 2nd half because they play their starters so many minutes but 3rd quarter they just had halftime rest so it shouldn't be a factor
    Comment
    • Seaweed
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 01-19-12
      • 26320

      #3
      Originally posted by dlowilly
      That is pretty weird

      I was going to say maybe they score less in the 2nd half because they play their starters so many minutes but 3rd quarter they just had halftime rest so it shouldn't be a factor
      Very weird

      Seems sometimes that games are fixed
      Comment
      • unde0087
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 03-27-08
        • 28997

        #4
        Seaweed, did you think they were going to continue to shoot the lights out? Its a simple law of averages, at some point a team is going to start missing shots in a game.
        Comment
        • Seaweed
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 01-19-12
          • 26320

          #5
          Originally posted by unde0087
          Seaweed, did you think they were going to continue to shoot the lights out? Its a simple law of averages, at some point a team is going to start missing shots in a game.
          Yeah but 21.5?

          Bigg drop

          If it was 25.5 i wouldnt touch but 21.5 seemed so low after putting up 31 and 41
          Comment
          • dlowilly
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-09-16
            • 13870

            #6
            Originally posted by unde0087
            Seaweed, did you think they were going to continue to shoot the lights out? Its a simple law of averages, at some point a team is going to start missing shots in a game.
            That's the gambler's fallacy

            Might as well lurk around roulette tables and wait for one color to hit 4 times in a row so you can bet the opposite

            It really is strange, would love to know why that line was so low. What is their 3rd qtr avg. for the season? Were there any injuries in the 1st half?
            Comment
            • Seaweed
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 01-19-12
              • 26320

              #7
              Originally posted by dlowilly
              That's the gambler's fallacy

              Might as well lurk around roulette tables and wait for one color to hit 4 times in a row so you can bet the opposite

              It really is strange, would love to know why that line was so low. What is their 3rd qtr avg. for the season? Were there any injuries in the 1st half?
              No injuries

              They stole my money
              Comment
              • Hu$tle
                SBR MVP
                • 03-31-15
                • 1365

                #8
                it flucuates
                Comment
                • DiggityDaggityDo
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-30-08
                  • 81463

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Seaweed
                  No injuries

                  They stole my money
                  Weeder, you got robbed man.
                  Comment
                  • unde0087
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 03-27-08
                    • 28997

                    #10
                    Okay, your right, averages have nothing to do with it. I guess a team shooting and scoring off their ass in a half means that they will probably continue to do it for the full game right? This is very basic stats, eventually a team no matter how good or bad they start percentage wise will work their way back to the mean. Numbers don't lie and is why blind bettors lose their ass on over/unders as they see a team shoot the lights out and expect it to continue over the full game. Obviously there is exceptions, like in everything, but they were on pace to score 140 and how many times do you see that happen? Hardly ever, which is why the total seemed low, to people that thought the Twolves were going to keep on that pace. Look at most teams in the league, you can look at box scores at games that are very high scoring first halves then what happens? You see a big drop off in 3rd or 4th quarter because they can't sustain the pace or the high percentage of shooting. If you think about it, 21.5 in the 3rd would put the Twolves at 93 points after 3 quarters. They average 102 points a game. You do the math on that.
                    Comment
                    • CWD
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-22-12
                      • 7665

                      #11
                      props are for suckers

                      avoid all in future and you will be good
                      Comment
                      • dlowilly
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-09-16
                        • 13870

                        #12
                        Originally posted by unde0087
                        Okay, your right, averages have nothing to do with it. I guess a team shooting and scoring off their ass in a half means that they will probably continue to do it for the full game right?
                        No, it means they will tend to score what their average 2nd half score is unless they are way ahead and decide to play a slower paced game and protect a lead which wasn't the case with this Minn game i don't think
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                        • Seaweed
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 01-19-12
                          • 26320

                          #13
                          Bullshit
                          Comment
                          • unde0087
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 03-27-08
                            • 28997

                            #14
                            Originally posted by dlowilly
                            No, it means they will tend to score what their average 2nd half score is unless they are way ahead and decide to play a slower paced game and protect a lead which wasn't the case with this Minn game i don't think
                            All I am saying to you is, in this case, Twolves were shooting/scoring at a very high rate. Much more than they average per game. The total doesn't seem off to me because in most cases they can't keep up the pace they were on. One thing about totals is, if it seems way low or way high there is probably a reason. Books aren't trying to hand out free money. I can pretty much guarantee if you go back and look at Twolves games that they score over 70+ points in the 1st half that they don't average more than 21 in the 3rd quarter, especially against good teams on the road.
                            Comment
                            • vividjohn45
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 11-21-10
                              • 6331

                              #15
                              Not totally sure but arent 3q nba wagers bettors kandy. Or bettors methadone?
                              Comment
                              • Seaweed
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 01-19-12
                                • 26320

                                #16
                                I thought it was a winner

                                Lost $140
                                Comment
                                • vividjohn45
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-21-10
                                  • 6331

                                  #17
                                  High juice? Also. Smh
                                  Comment
                                  • Seaweed
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 01-19-12
                                    • 26320

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by vividjohn45
                                    High juice? Also. Smh
                                    How is -115 high juice?
                                    Comment
                                    • vividjohn45
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 11-21-10
                                      • 6331

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Seaweed
                                      How is -115 high juice?
                                      YoU said you lost $140. I assumed you meant $140 to win $100. Excuse 3q wagers require a different mathematics
                                      Comment
                                      • pilebuck13
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 05-15-15
                                        • 17920

                                        #20
                                        Weed the minute u seen 21.5 you should have known better the question you should have been asking yourself was why do they hang 21.5 after 2 quarters of over 30....come on buck anytime you see high scoring like that then a second half line that is low as shit 💡💡💡💡💡
                                        Comment
                                        • nyplayer33
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 09-27-06
                                          • 8314

                                          #21
                                          Line indicates it all..when you see something bizarre stay away or bet other side. Week ago wasn't west virg number 10 home vs 1 Baylor and wv blew them out. 1 seed on road to a 10th seed should be minus 4 or 5..didn't they lose by 20??
                                          Comment
                                          • juicername
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 10-14-15
                                            • 6911

                                            #22
                                            The Wolves weren't shooting particularly well, but they got a boatload of free throws in the first half which was unlikely to continue. They're also 25th in the NBA for scoring 3rd quarters with 24.1 ppg.
                                            Comment
                                            • jjgold
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 07-20-05
                                              • 388208

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by CWD
                                              props are for suckers

                                              avoid all in future and you will be good
                                              yes

                                              When you win a bet you did not outsmart bookmaker you guessed right
                                              Comment
                                              • nyplayer33
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 09-27-06
                                                • 8314

                                                #24
                                                Not sure anything explains how they are not a good scoring 3rd quarter team. Is it they eat too much during half? Lol...the line should scream that something us way way off and it's obvious your not seeing what that is. As a default they probably shot much higher percentage early and back to reality was in order.
                                                Comment
                                                • chico2663
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 09-02-10
                                                  • 36993

                                                  #25
                                                  Look at wisky and mich total. They score 14 points in 44 seconds to fall depending on the line. Some people got 131-133 and it fell on 132.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • RudyRuetigger
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 08-24-10
                                                    • 65107

                                                    #26
                                                    i had no clue you could bet on total points score in a game???
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MoMoneyMoVaughn
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 05-08-14
                                                      • 14988

                                                      #27
                                                      Saer I am calling for a steward's inquiry.

                                                      Formula one is a much more legitimate sport played by honest gentleman and auto manufacturers.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BuckyOne
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-02-15
                                                        • 2739

                                                        #28
                                                        What was the 3rd qtr team total for the other team.? And. The sides - any correlations there
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Sam Odom
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 10-30-05
                                                          • 58063

                                                          #29
                                                          billy walters outsmarted them for yrs

                                                          more folklore than truth now
                                                          Comment
                                                          • rizespor
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-21-16
                                                            • 1900

                                                            #30
                                                            Wasn't this a low total game to begin with? Something like 200 and spurs -12 so 21.5 doesn't really seem that strange
                                                            Comment
                                                            • RetiredinPunta
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 11-30-16
                                                              • 262

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Seaweed
                                                              Minnesota Timbs 1st Q Points: 31; 2nd Q Points 41

                                                              Line for their Team Total for 3rd was 21.5 @-115

                                                              Being the sucker that I am i fell for it

                                                              They scored 19

                                                              How do they know?
                                                              Its base dont the starter mins. Minnesota starting line up is really good, they can hang with the best of them....if they had a better pg instead of that bum Rubo, they would be so much better. Minnesota bench is crap.....so the starters play the most minutes in the league. they usually get gassed by first half and slow down in the 2nd half. they ran it up in the first half it was expected that they will slow down and wont be as good.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jjgold
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 07-20-05
                                                                • 388208

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Sam Odom
                                                                billy walters outsmarted them for yrs

                                                                more folklore than truth now
                                                                Sammy he is not even a factor anymore in sports

                                                                Vegas just copies Pinnacle now
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Seaweed
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 01-19-12
                                                                  • 26320

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by BuckyOne
                                                                  What was the 3rd qtr team total for the other team.? And. The sides - any correlations there
                                                                  26.5
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • importmoon
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-22-11
                                                                    • 1140

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by CWD
                                                                    props are for suckers

                                                                    avoid all in future and you will be good
                                                                    exactly right... they just want you to suffer slowly and kill you in different angles and different dimensions and breed slower... live bet was the worst kind of torture of them all....it's like waterboarding..
                                                                    Comment
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