An example how you cannot outsmart the bookmakers

[Seaweed]

Minnesota Timbs 1st Q Points: 31; 2nd Q Points 41

Line for their Team Total for 3rd was 21.5 @-115

Being the sucker that I am i fell for it

They scored 19

How do they know?

[dlowilly]

That is pretty weird

I was going to say maybe they score less in the 2nd half because they play their starters so many minutes but 3rd quarter they just had halftime rest so it shouldn't be a factor

[Seaweed]

That is pretty weird

I was going to say maybe they score less in the 2nd half because they play their starters so many minutes but 3rd quarter they just had halftime rest so it shouldn't be a factor

Very weird

Seems sometimes that games are fixed

[unde0087]

Seaweed, did you think they were going to continue to shoot the lights out? Its a simple law of averages, at some point a team is going to start missing shots in a game.

[Seaweed]

Seaweed, did you think they were going to continue to shoot the lights out? Its a simple law of averages, at some point a team is going to start missing shots in a game.

Yeah but 21.5?

Bigg drop

If it was 25.5 i wouldnt touch but 21.5 seemed so low after putting up 31 and 41

[dlowilly]

Seaweed, did you think they were going to continue to shoot the lights out? Its a simple law of averages, at some point a team is going to start missing shots in a game.

That's the gambler's fallacy

Might as well lurk around roulette tables and wait for one color to hit 4 times in a row so you can bet the opposite

It really is strange, would love to know why that line was so low. What is their 3rd qtr avg. for the season? Were there any injuries in the 1st half?

[Seaweed]

That's the gambler's fallacy

Might as well lurk around roulette tables and wait for one color to hit 4 times in a row so you can bet the opposite

It really is strange, would love to know why that line was so low. What is their 3rd qtr avg. for the season? Were there any injuries in the 1st half?

No injuries

They stole my money

[Hu$tle]

it flucuates

[DiggityDaggityDo]

No injuries

They stole my money

Weeder, you got robbed man.

[unde0087]

Okay, your right, averages have nothing to do with it. I guess a team shooting and scoring off their ass in a half means that they will probably continue to do it for the full game right? This is very basic stats, eventually a team no matter how good or bad they start percentage wise will work their way back to the mean. Numbers don't lie and is why blind bettors lose their ass on over/unders as they see a team shoot the lights out and expect it to continue over the full game. Obviously there is exceptions, like in everything, but they were on pace to score 140 and how many times do you see that happen? Hardly ever, which is why the total seemed low, to people that thought the Twolves were going to keep on that pace. Look at most teams in the league, you can look at box scores at games that are very high scoring first halves then what happens? You see a big drop off in 3rd or 4th quarter because they can't sustain the pace or the high percentage of shooting. If you think about it, 21.5 in the 3rd would put the Twolves at 93 points after 3 quarters. They average 102 points a game. You do the math on that.

[CWD]

props are for suckers

avoid all in future and you will be good

[dlowilly]

Okay, your right, averages have nothing to do with it. I guess a team shooting and scoring off their ass in a half means that they will probably continue to do it for the full game right?

No, it means they will tend to score what their average 2nd half score is unless they are way ahead and decide to play a slower paced game and protect a lead which wasn't the case with this Minn game i don't think

[Seaweed]

Bullshit

[unde0087]

No, it means they will tend to score what their average 2nd half score is unless they are way ahead and decide to play a slower paced game and protect a lead which wasn't the case with this Minn game i don't think

All I am saying to you is, in this case, Twolves were shooting/scoring at a very high rate. Much more than they average per game. The total doesn't seem off to me because in most cases they can't keep up the pace they were on. One thing about totals is, if it seems way low or way high there is probably a reason. Books aren't trying to hand out free money. I can pretty much guarantee if you go back and look at Twolves games that they score over 70+ points in the 1st half that they don't average more than 21 in the 3rd quarter, especially against good teams on the road.

[vividjohn45]

Not totally sure but arent 3q nba wagers bettors kandy. Or bettors methadone?

[Seaweed]

I thought it was a winner

Lost $140

[vividjohn45]

High juice? Also. Smh

[Seaweed]

High juice? Also. Smh

How is -115 high juice?

[vividjohn45]

How is -115 high juice?

YoU said you lost $140. I assumed you meant $140 to win $100. Excuse 3q wagers require a different mathematics

[pilebuck13]

Weed the minute u seen 21.5 you should have known better the question you should have been asking yourself was why do they hang 21.5 after 2 quarters of over 30....come on buck anytime you see high scoring like that then a second half line that is low as shit 💡💡💡💡💡

[nyplayer33]

Line indicates it all..when you see something bizarre stay away or bet other side. Week ago wasn't west virg number 10 home vs 1 Baylor and wv blew them out. 1 seed on road to a 10th seed should be minus 4 or 5..didn't they lose by 20??

[juicername]

The Wolves weren't shooting particularly well, but they got a boatload of free throws in the first half which was unlikely to continue. They're also 25th in the NBA for scoring 3rd quarters with 24.1 ppg.

[jjgold]

props are for suckers

avoid all in future and you will be good

yes

When you win a bet you did not outsmart bookmaker you guessed right

[nyplayer33]

Not sure anything explains how they are not a good scoring 3rd quarter team. Is it they eat too much during half? Lol...the line should scream that something us way way off and it's obvious your not seeing what that is. As a default they probably shot much higher percentage early and back to reality was in order.

[chico2663]

Look at wisky and mich total. They score 14 points in 44 seconds to fall depending on the line. Some people got 131-133 and it fell on 132.

[RudyRuetigger]

i had no clue you could bet on total points score in a game???

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Saer I am calling for a steward's inquiry.

Formula one is a much more legitimate sport played by honest gentleman and auto manufacturers.

[BuckyOne]

What was the 3rd qtr team total for the other team.? And. The sides - any correlations there

[Sam Odom]

billy walters outsmarted them for yrs

more folklore than truth now

[rizespor]

Wasn't this a low total game to begin with? Something like 200 and spurs -12 so 21.5 doesn't really seem that strange

[RetiredinPunta]

Minnesota Timbs 1st Q Points: 31; 2nd Q Points 41

Line for their Team Total for 3rd was 21.5 @-115

Being the sucker that I am i fell for it

They scored 19

How do they know?

Its base dont the starter mins. Minnesota starting line up is really good, they can hang with the best of them....if they had a better pg instead of that bum Rubo, they would be so much better. Minnesota bench is crap.....so the starters play the most minutes in the league. they usually get gassed by first half and slow down in the 2nd half. they ran it up in the first half it was expected that they will slow down and wont be as good.

[jjgold]

billy walters outsmarted them for yrs

more folklore than truth now

Sammy he is not even a factor anymore in sports

Vegas just copies Pinnacle now

[Seaweed]

What was the 3rd qtr team total for the other team.? And. The sides - any correlations there

26.5

[importmoon]

props are for suckers

avoid all in future and you will be good

exactly right... they just want you to suffer slowly and kill you in different angles and different dimensions and breed slower... live bet was the worst kind of torture of them all....it's like waterboarding..