Golden State is worst team ATS in NBA

[Plaza23]

Best record: 33-6
Worst ATS record: 15-23-1

That shouldn't happen right?

[jjgold]

of course it can happen

point spread covers are a random daily event

[SamsNCharge99]

average spread of their games is probably 12-14 points. Basically GState wins a bunch of games but doesn't blow anyone out. Makes perfect sense.

They beat detroit tonight by 10, they win but don't cover

[shadymcgrady]

Not sure what the stats r but does this first third of the season remind anyone else of the miami heat their first yr after acquiring lebron and bosh? I recall that they struggled to cover spreads early on bc they were both to big or high and there was a ton of public money behind them

[KVB]

Best record: 33-6
Worst ATS record: 15-23-1

That shouldn't happen right?

Yes, it's exactly what should happen. The aura of the Golden State Warriors is finally showing itself.

The constant push of unsophisticated (public) money, the breakdown of which I could do but is beyond the scope of the thread, had finally pushed the line too far.

Again, not one game of "public" reaction, but a broader sense of reaction, is in play.

The line has moved too far and now the market has to catch up, there's always lag with this type of flow.

This is no more than the expected and predictable regular behavior of nearly all sports markets. This happens daily with multiple trends, stats, formula, etc.

If you understand why the line opens where it does and why it moves to where it closes, you will go a long way to winning long term.

With that knowledge, one would immediately know that not only should this happen, it was guaranteed to happen, eventually.

[rizespor]

1-8 in their last 9

About half were close though (vs MIA +14.5 lost by 2.5, @SAC +11.5 lost by 0.5, vs TOR +9.5 won by 0.5, @CLE +2.5 lost by 3.5, @DET +7.5 lost by 1.5)

[kingdom]

yet the world is scared to fade them. because they have potential to beat any by 35

[Cordoba25]

yet the world is scared to fade them. because they have potential to beat any by 35

Which is why books continue to inflate their lines..

[rizespor]

Warriors also still have yet to be a dog this season.

Only chance would be 2 remaining games at San Antonio. 3/11 and 3/29, both games on tail end of b2b AND both are also 3rd in 4 days

[RetiredinPunta]

there were even incidents when they blew out their opponent but didnt cover. I remember when they played some teams as -18 or higher favorite and they won by 15, 16 points etc which is a blow out but still not enough to cover.

[franklee168]

Vegas knows everyone is in love with the Warriors and can throw out a ridiculous line every time. They have not found their stride yet as a team hence the low coverage percentage.

[rizespor]

They were a. 500 team ats just 9 games ago

Streaks happen all the time.

Celtics have played 12 consecutive OVERS. Longest over streak since 92. Is anyone gonna start blindly betting Celtics overs?

[jjgold]

They will not lose spread every game

Watch out tonight

[KVB]

there were even incidents when they blew out their opponent but didnt cover. I remember when they played some teams as -18 or higher favorite and they won by 15, 16 points etc which is a blow out but still not enough to cover.

Perfect example of that market getting out of reach; especially, in my opinion, when not covering starts happening at these blowout levels often.

[jjgold]

Thompson worth at least 6 points on the line

[Git Lo]

Just a continuation of last year -17 spreads all day. Books love banging the population

[mtofell]

The biggest misconception in sports betting is people thinking lines are set where the line setters think the points/scores end up. Reality is the aim of sports books is to get equal money on each side, take their 10% (or more) and live happily ever after. The public regularly get far too excited on flashy teams like the Warriors or the Cowboys or the Yankees. There's a whole posse of professional bettors living outside of Vegas in HUGE houses that, long term, benefit from the public over-inflating spreads on good teams.

NFL this year killed the sports books and pro bettors. There was an inordinate amount of favorites winning. It seems to be the opposite in the NBA. I don't track it close enough but that GSW stat doesn't surprise me. Many other good teams seem to be losing at a pretty good clip - CLE last night, SA and CLE night before along with HOU barely winning (but not covering by a mile).

Admittedly, I'm just some idiot that throws some beer money on the games to make watching more fun. I'm definitely part of the dumb public making the pros rich.

[hedgejob]

GS have covered 9 out of 11 since this thread.

[Git Lo]

GS have covered 9 out of 11 since this thread.

Thats crazy but I bet a lot of ppl shyed away, but there was some juicy matchups like the one vs charlotte. Books set it high so you tail you probably lose but your not gonna fade GS are you??

[Jayvegas420]

Hedge gets it.
How about those wizards?

[p4$$ion]

miami heat on a 9 game winning streak and nobody is even talking about them. im sure thyve covered a bunch too.

[hedgejob]

Dbl post

[hedgejob]

MIA, DAL, GSW all 9 out of 11 ATS.

[krk1030]

pretty sure the nets have to be the worst ats now

[jjgold]

golden st starting to heat up now

[INVEGA MAN]

I didn't know this.