How could #10 WV. be giving #1 Baylor 6-6.5 points?

[PAULYPOKER]

I don't follow college hoops, but just looking at the ATS
tells me that
WV is a lock?
bet the house on it?
Public will be all over Baylor...........

[BIGDAY]

Yes. WV by 10+

[PAULYPOKER]

[BIGDAY]

[Hot Jerry]

NO CAN DO THIS ONE - WNT for me !!

[LT Profits]

Because Baylor is not nearly a #1 team.

[shadymcgrady]

I don't know much about college hoops but I saw Baylor play earlier this yr and they looked like crap to me. How are they #1?

[unde0087]

Ya, it's the same thing every year in the Big 12, Baylor and WV start off hot mostly beating up on shit teams then second half of the season both teams finish awful and lose in the 1st round of the tournament because they both recruit kids that can't shoot worth shit.

[LT Profits]

I don't know much about college hoops but I saw Baylor play earlier this yr and they looked like crap to me. How are they #1?

One of only two undefeated teams left along with Gonzaga, but neither of those teams has played a great schedule.

[HeeluvaGuy]

One of only two undefeated teams left along with Gonzaga, but neither of those teams has played a great schedule.

Baylor has wins over Oregon (w/o Brooks), VCU, Mich St, Louisville, and Xavier. That's a pretty decent OOC schedule. But I agree that they're #1 by default.

I'd love to know how many teams have every been an underdog in their first game as #1.

[krk1030]

Not surprised they are a dog on the road...but 6 points is a lot. Thought it would be 3 at most.

[LT Profits]

Baylor has wins over Oregon (w/o Brooks), VCU, Mich St, Louisville, and Xavier. That's a pretty decent OOC schedule. But I agree that they're #1 by default.

I'd love to know how many teams have every been an underdog in their first game as #1.

Even with all that, they are 108th in non-conference SOS.

[CappinTerp]

The line on this game tells you all you need to know! !.........................Lay the 6 points.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Even with all that, they are 108th in non-conference SOS.

Non-conference SOS for big dogs is kind of a silly metric for a couple of reasons. First, by definition they are typically playing down in competition, with the exception of a handful of games. Using Kenpom's ratings, South Carolina St had the toughest non-conference schedule. So what?

Second, conference play is well underway, so there's no reason to ignore those games. Kenpom has Baylor's SOS at 37. Massey has it at 16. Sagarain has it at 19.

Baylor has played 4 games against the Sagarin t25 and 6 against the t50. Only Louisville has played more (7 and 7) out of his top 10. (Not many teams have played more at all. I quickly looked at he top 100 and I think Wisconsin and Stanford are the only two others with more than Baylor.)

Some other non-conference schedule strength rankings for comparison (all kenpom): WVU 347, Kentucky 92, Duke 141, UCLA 249.

[teecee]

Home court means alot in college hoops. West Virginia is very solid historically at home.

[RetiredinPunta]

I liked this play but a lot of squares in many forums are on West Virginia saying that Baylor is a trap, so laying itoff.

[KVB]

Those who follow my posts know I make multiple lines and gauges for the games.

My non predictive public gauge actually shows West Virginia winning by 4 points, that doesn't mean the public won't jump ship and take Balyor, as speculated above, but it does indicate that will be a tougher move than most think. The originators can use this discrepancy against the public, as I believe they are with this game, and the books are following suit as they hold the line.

My sharpest forecast I have right now predicts a tie in this game, with West Virginia having a less than half point edge in the raw score.

The line may be right where market wants it, but it doesn't mean necessarily WV is the play. There's a broader picture to take into account and finishing the handicapping process will show more direction.

It's safe to say there should be pressure on Baylor. That's not saying much as all of you bettors who don't know why the line opens where it does and moves to where it closes will make the same assumption.

This last sentence means if you like Baylor, get the 6. If you like WV, get the 5.5 if it comes and strongly consider the WV moneyline at that point.

Sure, the Baylor moneyline looks good, and it may even come, but know there extra markets risks involved with that play that make those odds on the upset look much shorter than they are.

Good Luck.

[GoBlue23]

Under

[No coincidences]

Because Baylor is not nearly a #1 team.

If you'd watch a game every once in a while, you'd see how good this team is.

That means nothing tonight, but saying this is equally absurd.

[No coincidences]

Let me guess: KenPom has WVU by 5-7.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i don't understand these rankings and strength of schedule.

baylor has beaten 5 name teams out of conference with zero losses....... wvu is 2-1 against name ooc teams. one of the teams they've beaten is very good. one not so good... not sure about baylor's 5 OOC wins and those teams' quality this year.

[QuantumLeap]

Baylor wins outright.

[LT Profits]

If you'd watch a game every once in a while, you'd see how good this team is.

That means nothing tonight, but saying this is equally absurd.

I didn't say Baylor was not "good", I said they are nowhere near a #1 team. They are a fringe Top 10 at best. They are simply #1 by default right now, a ranking that will last one week.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i really don't understand the math.... i see most power ratings have WV as #1 or #2 team in country.... but they are 4-2 against decent name schools. they have 2 losses and their strength of schedule so far is above #200 i.e. very very weak... makes no sense to me. they have really blown out some teams i guess.......

i am not sure but seems like sagarin doesn't do elo chess rating or at least calls it something else.. that was the rating where only winning the game mattered.

[HeeluvaGuy]

i really don't understand the math.... i see most power ratings have WV as #1 or #2 team in country.... but they are 4-2 against decent name schools. they have 2 losses and their strength of schedule so far is above #200 i.e. very very weak... makes no sense to me. they have really blown out some teams i guess.......

i am not sure but seems like sagarin doesn't do elo chess rating or at least calls it something else.. that was the rating where only winning the game mattered.

WVU has played 3 300+ ranked kenpom teams and 4 other 225+ ranked teams. Nearly half of their wins are against bottom 1/3ish teams. That's dragging down their SOS, but MOVs are pretty high and they have a win over #4 Virginia.

[No coincidences]

I didn't say Baylor was not "good", I said they are nowhere near a #1 team. They are a fringe Top 10 at best. They are simply #1 by default right now, a ranking that will last one week.

Based on what?

Do me a favor and take a look at this instead of burying yourself with some out-dated model.

http://www.kpisports.net/d-i_mbb/2016-17-d-mbb-kpi-rankings/

[trytrytry]

Based on what?

Do me a favor and take a look at this instead of burying yourself with some out-dated model.

http://www.kpisports.net/d-i_mbb/201...-kpi-rankings/

omg that web site has Minnesota 7th

thats hysterical

[No coincidences]

omg that web site has Minnesota 7th

thats hysterical

It's the best power rankings around, hands down.

Keep an eye on it as the season progresses. You won't be sorry.

[gojetsgomoxies]

WVU has played 3 300+ ranked kenpom teams and 4 other 225+ ranked teams. Nearly half of their wins are against bottom 1/3ish teams. That's dragging down their SOS, but MOVs are pretty high and they have a win over #4 Virginia.

thx.. i agree the UVA win is nice ............... and also WV MOV is very impressive, whereas baylor's - for similar opponents - is not nearly as good...... but not sure beating up on norfolk state by 50 points is that relevent as i would guess you might agree..

fyi, 4 of the 5 OOC teams that baylor has beaten are good...... those 4 teams have 10 loses total including the 4 losses to Baylor.... the 5th team is MSU which has 6 losses..

[trytrytry]

It's the best power rankings around, hands down.

Keep an eye on it as the season progresses. You won't be sorry.

how have you used it to determine some value plays? vs the spread. i dont see a power ranking number or anything.

[KVB]

Man, I tried to step the thread up a notch, and it I think it went the wrong way.

[PAULYPOKER]

I read your post...Impressive.

[krk1030]

16 Baylor turnovers in 18 minutes and they are only down 4....baylor will roll in the 2h

[No coincidences]

how have you used it to determine some value plays? vs the spread. i dont see a power ranking number or anything.

More in comparing their rankings to others and going from there. No, there is no direct score projections.

[KRIT]

I don't care what the model or stats say, Baylor is not a great team. They're a good team. Probably finish third in the conference, get a #4 or #5 seed in the tourney. Their team last year is probably better, that team had Prince.