What Caused The Line In The Auburn Oklahoma Game To Go From -6 To -2?

[tatddy]

You are judging ONE bet though. I bet Auburn +3.5 and would make the same bet over and over, the closing line validated that.

[TheMoneyShot]

Only thing that I can think of... is that Vegas anticipated Joe Mixon possibly being suspended for the bowl game (from public pressure.) We all know he was already penalized by the University of Oklahoma a year ago. Of course I'm thinking of anything that would make the line go slowly from -6 to -2. Like I said... on paper... Oklahoma simply outmatched Auburn.

According to a few line services out there... they claim that when the line hit -2.5 Oklahoma was being hit at 72% and 70%.

Again... why did the other books continue to drop it to Oklahoma -2 and even at Oklahoma -1.5

It's a mystery that will never be solved.

Every time Auburn had Mayfield at 3rd and 15+ they seemingly screwed up and allowed Oklahoma the 1st down. A lot of things that could of kept the game closer. But let's face it... for a surprisingly higher ranking bowl game... this game was very lopsided.

[rizespor]

You are judging ONE bet though. I bet Auburn +3.5 and would make the same bet over and over, the closing line validated that.

Well you are nitpicking the words and not really getting that I was going for the sentiment behind the words

Nevertheless, I bet OU moneyline when they were -1.5 so the closing line validated that as well (though less CLV than you) and I would absolutely make that same bet over and over as well.

[LT Profits]

Only thing that I can think of... is that Vegas anticipated Joe Mixon possibly being suspended for the bowl game (from public pressure.) We all know he was already penalized by the University of Oklahoma a year ago. Of course I'm thinking of anything that would make the line go slowly from -6 to -2. Like I said... on paper... Oklahoma simply outmatched Auburn.

According to a few line services out there... they claim that when the line hit -2.5 Oklahoma was being hit at 72% and 70%.

Again... why did the other books continue to drop it to Oklahoma -2 and even at Oklahoma -1.5

It's a mystery that will never be solved.

Every time Auburn had Mayfield at 3rd and 15+ they seemingly screwed up and allowed Oklahoma the 1st down. A lot of things that could of kept the game closer. But let's face it... for a surprisingly higher ranking bowl game... this game was very lopsided.

It had nothing to do with Mixon, Oklahoma had the worst defensive metrics of all the New Years Six teams and their offensive numbers were inflated by playing poor defenses in the Big 12. That combination is the primary reason why my model spit out Auburn -0.38 (I am going from memory there but was right around that), and many of the so-called numbers groups agreed, driving down the line.

[The Kraken]

He wont be coming back around to provide specifics, that I can guarantee

[KVB]

It had nothing to do with Mixon, Oklahoma had the worst defensive metrics of all the New Years Six teams and their offensive numbers were inflated by playing poor defenses in the Big 12. That combination is the primary reason why my model spit out Auburn -0.38 (I am going from memory there but was right around that), and many of the so-called numbers groups agreed, driving down the line.

I had Auburn winning by .2 points, basically a pik em.

I had Iowa winning by .2 points as well.

Both of those plays obviously worked out well.

[TheMoneyShot]

It had nothing to do with Mixon, Oklahoma had the worst defensive metrics of all the New Years Six teams and their offensive numbers were inflated by playing poor defenses in the Big 12. That combination is the primary reason why my model spit out Auburn -0.38 (I am going from memory there but was right around that), and many of the so-called numbers groups agreed, driving down the line.

I will definitely add this info into the reasoning. Only reasonable logical explanation.

[BigdaddyQH]

Try this. You guys were played. Schooled. This was my biggest play and I gave 4 points because this game was a mismatch. Oklahoma should have been at least a 7 point favorite if you take an honest look at the teams and the conferences involved. The "Wiseguys" (not necessarily the so called "Sharps") know this. They also know that Joe Pub (you guys) are going to be very tired after watching a huge amount of college and pro football. You are going to believe just about anything, and the Mixon thing is the perfect fuse to light the bomb. What they do is play a "Bait and Switch". They put down just enough money to move the line in Auburn's favor and then just sit back and watch the avalanche of wagers come in on the Tigers. Even some of the "sharps" dumped big time on Auburn. Then, at the very last minute, they go down heavy on the Sooners. This was the perfect time and the perfect game to do this. Obviously the books love this. They made out quite well. The big loser, as usual. is Joe Pub and a few high rollers that think they know football, but do not. Too many people confuse "High Rollers", "Sharps" and "Wiseguys". High rollers are guys who wager a lot of money, not necessarily successfully. To sucker them into losing more money, a lot of casino bosses call the "Sharps". Wiseguys are the few "High Rollers" that actually know what they are doing, and always show a profit for a season. Using things like the "Bait and Switch" as well as other tricks is a big reason why.

[jt315]

I have been told that the line finished between 3 1/2 and 5, depending on where you wagered. For the many of you that played Auburn, welcome to the "Bait and Switch" rackets.. You have been had by the wise guys.

Did you really come back to this thread after what you said in bold?

[TheMoneyShot]

I have been told that the line finished between 3 1/2 and 5, depending on where you wagered. For the many of you that played Auburn, welcome to the "Bait and Switch" racket. You have been had by the wise guys.

Did you really come back to this thread after what you said in bold?

Fukking Cleo told him.

[jt315]

Fukking Cleo told him.

Miss Cleo don't know line moves.