If you have nc state be very afraid
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I have Vandy but small. Games like these they try to sell people on the bigger name team, NC State should have been favored by no more than -2.5.Comment -
Many people at this point of the season have lost their roll ten times over and favorites tend to get hammered more
Wouldn't read too much into line movementComment -
Dogs are killing it this year so farComment -
Im sure Vandy will be the combo breakerComment -
A steamed fave finally covers. NC stateComment -
well this will change now because you just had to post stuff like this. Its amazing how people just cant use this information and profit off it without shouting to the masses. BuffoonComment -
Yes because he posted the trend will change
Homie post how i haven't won the lottery in a whileComment -
Thanks for the loss Homie.Comment -
It all eventually goes to 50% it's why most people's way in red lifetime
50% a
Massive loserComment -
Moves based on touts selling picks?Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I dont chase any steam but if you honestly dont think the books will use this site or other sites to pick up on mistakes they make, little odd commonalities, line move simliarities, etc., then you are underestimating them. Just look at how Pinny changed the way they juice nba games now differently. Back about three years ago or more you could almost back an automatic win when they would juice a line -125 or more on the spread for nba. Then alot of talk about it got mentioned everywhere and it went away. Is it the direct cause of it going away? Probably not but I'm sure it doesnt helpComment -
I think you underestimate sports forums as a useful tool for books. If its on players talk its probably also on covers and other gambling forums too. Gamblers like to brag especially losing ones the moment they find a neat trick that works a little bit instead of capitalizing on it for a couple days or week before it goes away. People who know how to read lines can tell you there are tricks books use and times when they are lazy in how they set them or juice them that gives away information. I hope for your sake you know this, and thats all i was saying to the opening poster is that when you notice little things like that that work why not shut up and capitalize on it temporarily and move on. No need to make a thread about it. Homie has been a bum on this site for many years, hes the first to pm someone 5 minutes after they make a wrong pick but then he disappears when he makes picks that go belly upComment -
They don't do anything but wing it pal. This is what the vast majority of the betting public does. I have only been on this forum for 4 years, but I have been on forums on various topics for 20 yrs, and I can tell you that most forum posters are a different breed. They seek out information in a way that regular people do not.Comment -
Yes I thought you might respond with this... I guess it is possible. But with something so secretive (how books make lines, juice lines, move lines, etc) I doubt there is anything the books could garner from forum posters. They are the ones with the info... we are the ones trying to mine it. But who knows?
I have learned a lot here, but I still don't know if there is any solid reason to believe books react to anything other than the flow of money.
One of the things that makes it hard to learn here is you never know if someone is serious or full of shit. lolComment -
So what will books do to combat this newfound knowledge that they weren't able to pick up on their own? Not move lines anymore? Not move them as much?Comment -
I think they garner mistakes they make in how they set or move a line and how its juiced. You got to remember just like any job it becomes repetitive for some and mistakes can be made so if they are constantly seeing a certain line hammered or a certain game bet heavy maybe they can identify it doesnt make sense from a simple forum post about a poster bragging which might see might help them correct it. I used the Pinny example above from a couple years ago and they were juicing their lines a certain way which became repetitive and you could see an edge in how they were doing it which gave away a lot of which side they were leaning on or expecting to win and it was a basically a gift to bettors who noticed it. Well there were a decent amount of threads where people would talk about it and then i noticed it went away. Is it because of this site? Maybe not but I'm sure if it was posted here it was noticed at other forums too and mentioned.Comment -
its not newfound knowledge, they are the ones making the lines, moving them, pricing them, etc. What im saying is sometimes they get lazy and you can notice things if you look hard enough. Pointing it out on forums all over the internet might not be why it goes away but I'm sure it doesnt help. So for instance in this circumstance maybe if they think they can draw money a certain way maybe theyll make a few false line moves on one of these bowl games if they see enough people are chasing it one way or another. Again I'm not the book so I dont know exactly. My point to the whole thing is if you are a good capper and you notice things that help you outside of just general injuries or random thoughts on a game why blab it all over.Comment -
Fair enough. I interpreted your comment earlier like "now they aren't going to cover anymore." ...gamblers fallacy
I feel like There's been a few examples of that in poker. Maybe a tournament with a lot of overlay or an easy way to roll over bonuses. Sooner than later it's gone... due to a forum post or attention brought to it? Who knows.
Theres also been times where something is posted on a forum and doesn't change.Comment -
It all evens out. Look for a run the other way now.Comment
