Early in the seasons, books don't quite have a feel for teams, so the lines are off and the market is relatively inefficient.
Now granted, we dont know how teams will perform either but it's besides the point for two reasons 1.) We're all dart chuckers anyhow, so may as well be throwing at a mispriced dog, ie the Pats being over +400 in game 1 this year and 2.) Its the time of year our knowledge and understanding of teams is closest to what the books is.
The middle seasons are the absolute worst for value in every sport but MLB. This is because we still have no clue and throw darts while the books get smarter, the market more efficient, early lines get hit and the value disappears, we're left with scraps at the end and paying 5-10% to play. Terrible proposition.
But the end of the year the pendulum slightly swings back into our favor for the sole reason that now we can judge what a team is playing for. This helps. In the mid seasons, teams take games off, players lose interest and you end up with huge favs losing, and honestly there is little way to predict when they might take a game off, ie Spurs. Its a true gamble. Books can afford to lose these games because we pay vig all year, they dont.
But now in NCAAF, all the marbles are out, we know whats at stake. This means in NCAA, this is one of the two times in the year we stand to possibly scratch out an edge.
Pound away this weekend boys
Now granted, we dont know how teams will perform either but it's besides the point for two reasons 1.) We're all dart chuckers anyhow, so may as well be throwing at a mispriced dog, ie the Pats being over +400 in game 1 this year and 2.) Its the time of year our knowledge and understanding of teams is closest to what the books is.
The middle seasons are the absolute worst for value in every sport but MLB. This is because we still have no clue and throw darts while the books get smarter, the market more efficient, early lines get hit and the value disappears, we're left with scraps at the end and paying 5-10% to play. Terrible proposition.
But the end of the year the pendulum slightly swings back into our favor for the sole reason that now we can judge what a team is playing for. This helps. In the mid seasons, teams take games off, players lose interest and you end up with huge favs losing, and honestly there is little way to predict when they might take a game off, ie Spurs. Its a true gamble. Books can afford to lose these games because we pay vig all year, they dont.
But now in NCAAF, all the marbles are out, we know whats at stake. This means in NCAA, this is one of the two times in the year we stand to possibly scratch out an edge.
Pound away this weekend boys
