If Penn St wins..

[jtoler]

very slight chance if clemson or uw loses and penn st wins? penn st is a lock if one of those teams loses and they win. i think penn st passes osu if they win regardless of what clemson and wash do.

No way that will happen.

[itchypickle]

Colorado knocks off U-Dub....calling it now.

Door opens again for Michigan.

[LT Profits]

Colorado knocks off U-Dub....calling it now.

Door opens again for Michigan.

Should be Big Ten Champ before Michigan for reasons already mentioned.

[jtoler]

Penn State alumni here (as you can probably tell by my name). Even if we beat Wisconsin to win the Big 10, they will leave us out of the playoffs UNLESS Clemson or Washington loses. If either of those teams lose, we'll have a very slight chance to possibly make top 4 then. A 4 team playoff is just so stupid, they should have made it a 8 team playoff from the get go. If your team is not ranked in the top 8 then there's really no valid argument for you to make the playoffs.

Beating Wisconsin this week is going to be hard, they are a good team and our offense is going to struggle against their defense. So all of these what if scenarios will probably be for nothing if we lose to Wisconsin....it'll be real interesting to see what the committee does though if we manage to beat Wisconsin.

Pretty much what Ive been saying. Beating Wisky is just a start, that certainly doesnt mean PSU will get in top 4.

[5918mike]

Colorado knocks off U-Dub....calling it now.

Door opens again for Michigan.

Door opens for the other 3 conference winners before Michigan jumps back in.

[fried cheese]

No way that will happen.

i dont see why not. committee already said they determine rankings of similar records by conf championship, str of schedule, and head to head. 11-1 vs 11-2 is as comparable as you can get without being the exact same. penn st wins the conf champ and head to head and ohio st maybe has an advantage in str of schedule since they played oklahoma where penn st played temple but penn st has an extra game also.

[Nittany Lion]

very slight chance if clemson or uw loses and penn st wins? penn st is a lock if one of those teams loses and they win. i think penn st passes osu if they win regardless of what clemson and wash do.

If Clemson or Washington lose their championship games I would hope it would be considered a lock for Penn State to make it if they beat Wisconsin. I don't see Clemson losing to Virginia Tech so our only hope is Washington losing to Colorado. If that happens, Penn State should jump to the #4 spot I would think as long as the committee considers Penn State's 11-2 record with a championship win better than #5 Michigan's record at 10-2 with no championship win.

Ohio State is not going to be surpassed at their #2 ranking, that is already clear. They don't even have to play in the Big 10 Championship game yet still get to make the playoffs...they actually benefited from Penn State beating them, lol how messed up is that. They get to play 1 less game so their players get more rest and no chance of injury. They'll be nice and rested for their 1st playoff game.

[LT Profits]

i dont see why not. committee already said they determine rankings of similar records by conf championship, str of schedule, and head to head.

Those criteria are for to break ties between SIMILAR teams, the committee has already said that there is a vast separation between Ohio State and the two teams involved in the Big Ten Championship Game.

[TheMoneyShot]

Could Michigan somehow make #4 if the system is rigged?

What needs to happen?

[fried cheese]

Those criteria are for to break ties between SIMILAR teams, the committee has already said that there is a vast separation between Ohio State and the two teams involved in the Big Ten Championship Game.

link?

[jtoler]

i dont see why not. committee already said they determine rankings of similar records by conf championship, str of schedule, and head to head. 11-1 vs 11-2 is as comparable as you can get without being the exact same. penn st wins the conf champ and head to head and ohio st maybe has an advantage in str of schedule since they played oklahoma where penn st played temple but penn st has an extra game also.

Cant speak for them 100%, but for me OSU' s schedule just better. OSU beat Oklahoma and Wisky on the road, every decent win PSU has was at home. OSU lost to PSU by only 3 and on the road and rather late in the game, that isnt the most horrible thing in the world. I just believe the committee would bring up the fact that OSU beat Michigan and PSU got killed by them, not to mention losing to Pitt. Who knows what all they look at though.

[LT Profits]

link?

This is not exactly news as the committee has been saying it for weeks, but here is a piece I found from last week before the Michigan game:

CFP chair explains why Penn State isn't even close to Ohio State right now

What's unknown is how the committee would treat a two-loss Penn State that wins the Big Ten compared to a one-loss Ohio State. Hocutt's comments about a not-so-small separation between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions could suggest that gap would only be maintained or increased if Ohio State adds a win over No. 3 Michigan.

[fried cheese]

This is not exactly news as the committee has been saying it for weeks, but here is a piece I found from last week before the Michigan game:

CFP chair explains why Penn State isn't even close to Ohio State right now

What's unknown is how the committee would treat a two-loss Penn State that wins the Big Ten compared to a one-loss Ohio State. Hocutt's comments about a not-so-small separation between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions could suggest that gap would only be maintained or increased if Ohio State adds a win over No. 3 Michigan.

hmm i guess ohio st is in unless they are just lying and are gonna say now that penn st won a conf championship there is only a small margin.

[LT Profits]

hmm i guess ohio st is in unless they are just lying and are gonna say now that penn st won a conf championship there is only a small margin.

Have you actually watched the Playoff shows? The chairman has said basically the same thing as above in the interviews after just about every unveiling.

[fried cheese]

Have you actually watched the Playoff shows? The chairman has said basically the same thing as above in the interviews after just about every unveiling.

lol no i dont watch the ranking shows. but it seems kinda ridiculous to say wisc isnt close to ohio st. the difference between those teams is a overtime win.

[5918mike]

lol no i dont watch the ranking shows. but it seems kinda ridiculous to say wisc isnt close to ohio st. the difference between those teams is a overtime win.

And looking at both records it's not that far apart, common opponents and wins. Give Wisconsin a big win over Penn State and a conference title and I would have no problem knocking OSU out.

[itchypickle]

Should be Big Ten Champ before Michigan for reasons already mentioned.

I agree it "should" but the committee has given so much love to Michigan all year.

[habitualwinning]

Could Michigan somehow make #4 if the system is rigged?

What needs to happen?

Hell ya they can make it. The way I see it all that needs to happen is Colorado knocks Washington outta the picture and Penn St. beats Wisky. At that point Michigan would've beaten the Pac12 champ and absolutely destroyed the Big10 champ already this season. Michigan is clearly, without a doubt, the best 2 loss team. The rankings prove that and looking at their schedule, they beat Colorado, Penn St. and Wisky 3 straight weeks back to back to back. All 3 of those teams are in their conference championships. Michigan absolutely destroyed Penn St. by Big10 standards already this year by like 40 points, so that has to account for bonus points to the committee. Plus they have a bigger draw for ratings. A potential rematch with Ohio State in the playoff would be the committee's dream based on that last 2OT game, that Michigan might have actually won. That 4th down in double OT sure looked a bit short but the refs gave it to Barrett. We're seriously talking about like an inch. Michigan lost 2 games this season by a combined 4 points. They beat Penn St. this year by 40 points.

[Nittany Lion]

Hell ya they can make it. The way I see it all that needs to happen is Colorado knocks Washington outta the picture and Penn St. beats Wisky. At that point Michigan would've beaten the Pac12 champ and absolutely destroyed the Big10 champ already this season. Michigan is clearly, without a doubt, the best 2 loss team. The rankings prove that and looking at their schedule, they beat Colorado, Penn St. and Wisky 3 straight weeks back to back to back. All 3 of those teams are in their conference championships. Michigan absolutely destroyed Penn St. by Big10 standards already this year by like 40 points, so that has to account for bonus points to the committee. Plus they have a bigger draw for ratings. A potential rematch with Ohio State in the playoff would be the committee's dream based on that last 2OT game, that Michigan might have actually won. That 4th down in double OT sure looked a bit short but the refs gave it to Barrett. We're seriously talking about like an inch. Michigan lost 2 games this season by a combined 4 points. They beat Penn St. this year by 40 points.

Michigan kicked our ass this year but for those that just look at the final scores and didn't pay attention, we were decimated by injuries on defense and it was a home game for them as well, we also played like shit. I don't think Michigan is that much better of a team then Penn State, we destroyed Iowa and Iowa beat Michigan a few weeks back, does that mean we would dominate Michigan now? No, but anything can happen any given game. Michigan State was a 2 point conversion away from beating Ohio State and we destroyed Michigan State last Saturday. You can't use the transitive property in college football, Team A will beat Team B who beats Team C then Team C will go and destroy team A. When it comes to college football, home field advantage/player and fan emotions plays a lot into it.

[habitualwinning]

Michigan kicked our ass this year but for those that just look at the final scores and didn't pay attention, we were decimated by injuries on defense and it was a home game for them as well, we also played like shit. I don't think Michigan is that much better of a team then Penn State, we destroyed Iowa and Iowa beat Michigan a few weeks back, does that mean we would dominate Michigan now? No, but anything can happen any given game. Michigan State was a 2 point conversion away from beating Ohio State and we destroyed Michigan State last Saturday. You can't use the transitive property in college football, Team A will beat Team B who beats Team C then Team C will go and destroy team A. When it comes to college football, home field advantage/player and fan emotions plays a lot into it.

It's not transitive when it's head to head. There's a lot of "ifs" that still have to occur but if Colorado wins the Pac12 and Penn St. wins the Big10 and you have a team on the sidelines with the same record that destroyed both of those guys already, he's got a damn good argument. If Michigan had beaten Colorado or Penn St. by a FG or a TD, we're not even talking about this. They beat down both of them. The committee definitely looks at style points. That's why you see the really good CFB coaches play the entire game. Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma etc. always pound the ball in whenever they can for this exact scenario. It might save their ass when the committee is in there looking at strength of schedule and sees, hey look here this guy and this guy are fighting for the last playoff spot and this guy absolutely decimated this other guy already this season head to head. If I'm thinking about this stuff, you know the committee is too damn well. Just my opinion but Michigan has a better chance at beating a Bama in the playoff, than Washington or Oklahoma or Penn St. does based on this season. This whole scenario is screwy though, I'm glad I don't have to make the decision. Somebody's gonna get screwed any way you call it. 4 spots for about 6 or 7 teams that have a legitimate claim.

[kellen2811]

It's not transitive when it's head to head. There's a lot of "ifs" that still have to occur but if Colorado wins the Pac12 and Penn St. wins the Big10 and you have a team on the sidelines with the same record that destroyed both of those guys already, he's got a damn good argument. If Michigan had beaten Colorado or Penn St. by a FG or a TD, we're not even talking about this. They beat down both of them. The committee definitely looks at style points. That's why you see the really good CFB coaches play the entire game. Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma etc. always pound the ball in whenever they can for this exact scenario. It might save their ass when the committee is in there looking at strength of schedule and sees, hey look here this guy and this guy are fighting for the last playoff spot and this guy absolutely decimated this other guy already this season head to head. If I'm thinking about this stuff, you know the committee is too damn well. Just my opinion but Michigan has a better chance at beating a Bama in the playoff, than Washington or Oklahoma or Penn St. does based on this season. This whole scenario is screwy though, I'm glad I don't have to make the decision. Somebody's gonna get screwed any way you call it. 4 spots for about 6 or 7 teams that have a legitimate claim.

Finish 3rd in your own division and 4th in your own conference but yeah top 4 in the country sure? I mean just reading that would anyone argue they deserve top 4? At what point do you tell a team you just didn't get it done. Forget the "eye test" for a minute and just look at what teams have accomplished in the season which is what we should be going by. 3 weeks ago Louisville was the darling. Think they pass that now?

[BigdaddyQH]

An interesting discussion, but a moot point. Washington will defeat Colorado Friday Night. Michigan will be on the outside looking in unless Va. Tech defeats Clemson. Penn State is already out. If the Committee refuses to put them ahead of a team that defeated them, there is no chance that they will jump a team that beat them by 39 points. Wisconsin also has no chance. They lost to BOTH Michigan and Ohio State.

[smittyallsports]

do we really want to see penn state? They would be at least a two touchdown dog to anybody in the playoff.

[BigdaddyQH]

From what I have been told, it seems as if the Committee is dead set on keeping Penn State OUT of the playoffs. If Penn State defeats Wisconsin, they must hope that either Washington or Clemson to lose just to get into the Orange Bowl, much less the playoffs. If Penn State loses (which would make the Committee very happy) then they still may get a New Years 6 game, but only if Washington and/or Clemson loses moving Michigan up to the #4 spot. It is hard to say why the Committee apparently has it in for Penn State, but just about everyone that I have talked to that has some inside info on this subject seems to think so.

[TheMoneyShot]

All good points about why Michigan should be in the Top 4 and not be in the Top 4.

There are some books that still have Michigan as a prop wager... Will Michigan Win the College Playoff and be #1 in the Nation? +2400 right now.

Somehow... I want to believe (50/50) that the system is rigged... and will put Michigan #4.

Going to be some pissed off people nationwide lol

I don't see Colorado beating Washington though.

So what else needs to happen? Virginia Tech must beat Clemson?

[Ra77er]

What makes the most money for the business? What matchups would be ideal for the CFBP, ignoring records and everything?

Bama
OSU
Michigan
Clemson

That is my guess. I don't think PSU or U-Dub or UW have the national draw as those others mentioned above. Just for the record I'm not saying thats what it should be, I just think that is the dream scenario.

[RetiredinPunta]

ohio st ain't budging. u come into a game no. 2 and beat the number 3? and drop out? nope. they beat wisconsin, michigan, and oklahoma. penn st. lost by 40 to michigan, and lost to pitt. winning championship game won't wash away losses by 40, and one to an unranked team.

And Penn State beat Clemson.

If penn wins, they are in. They beat Ohio state and they won the conference championship. They will make it and will be ranked over ohio state. Ohio state will probably still make it.

If anything Clemson and Washington state might get the knife.

But Penn state might not win. Penn State passing wont work as good agains Wisconsin and wisconsin should be able to scoreon penn. i think wisconsin wins. but cry babies willl still cry foul if wisconsin wins and didn't make the championship.

[maggiethebestdog]

And Penn State beat Clemson.

If penn wins, they are in. They beat Ohio state and they won the conference championship. They will make it and will be ranked over ohio state. Ohio state will probably still make it.

If anything Clemson and Washington state might get the knife.

But Penn state might not win. Penn State passing wont work as good agains Wisconsin and wisconsin should be able to scoreon penn. i think wisconsin wins. but cry babies willl still cry foul if wisconsin wins and didn't make the championship.

WTF is wrong with you. Penn State beat Clemson??? What are you smoking??
Also, its Washington not Wash St.
Your whole post is nonsense.

[TheMoneyShot]

WTF is wrong with you. Penn State beat Clemson??? What are you smoking??
Also, its Washington not Wash St.
Your whole post is nonsense.

Washington state

In Punta... smoking some Punta.

[meader99]

If wisky wins Saturday, they will move ahead of Michigan, regardless if that's 4 or 5.

[RM Logic]

Most talking heads and fans do not realize the committee looks a teams wins on the road as one of the most important aspects of the resume.
Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin have zero quality road wins.
Ohio State has road wins over 2 top 8 teams. No team even Alabama has that.
That is why OSU is #2 and is clearly ahead of the other B1G teams.
At least Washington has a road win at Utah.
That is probably why they are ahead of Michigan. The coaches in that room know how hard it is to win on the road vs. a top 20 team.

[habitualwinning]

All good points about why Michigan should be in the Top 4 and not be in the Top 4.

There are some books that still have Michigan as a prop wager... Will Michigan Win the College Playoff and be #1 in the Nation? +2400 right now.

Somehow... I want to believe (50/50) that the system is rigged... and will put Michigan #4.

Going to be some pissed off people nationwide lol

I don't see Colorado beating Washington though.

So what else needs to happen? Virginia Tech must beat Clemson?

Money, if you're rooting for Michigan or you're on that +2400 line, you need Colorado to beat Wash. That greatly solidifies Michigan's resume cause they already smoked Colorado earlier this season, so that would ultimately mean they beat the Pac12 champ. I don't see how Michigan gets in without that happening. If that does happen, then Michigan would've beaten both the Pac12 and Big10 champ this season head to head. Major bonus points for that with the committee. Same thing with Ohio State if Oklahoma wins the Big12 and Wisky wins the Big10. Ohio St. would've beaten 2 major conference champs head to head, that solidifies their resume even though they're already in the playoff regardless of what happens.

[JTrain]

Parlay +840
Wmu ML
Bama -24
Clemson ML
Wash -7.5
Wmu Ohio under 59.5

[letsgo]

If wisky wins Saturday, they will move ahead of Michigan, regardless if that's 4 or 5.

Penn State or Wisconsin jumps ahead of Michigan depending on who wins.

[secretstash]

All good points about why Michigan should be in the Top 4 and not be in the Top 4.

There are some books that still have Michigan as a prop wager... Will Michigan Win the College Playoff and be #1 in the Nation? +2400 right now.

Somehow... I want to believe (50/50) that the system is rigged... and will put Michigan #4.

Going to be some pissed off people nationwide lol

I don't see Colorado beating Washington though.

So what else needs to happen? Virginia Tech must beat Clemson?

I am a life long die hard Ohio State fan and I think Michigan has a real legitimate chance to securely be in if Penn St wins and Colorado wins because they will have effectively beat both the Big 10 Champ and the Pac 12 champ by 57 points combined. LOL Michigan is IN under this scenario. No way either PSU or Colorado will jump them. Virginia Tech beating Clemson does not need to happen in this scenario.


-stash