When to go for the middle?

**jjgold** · 11-18-16, 05:50 PM

Most people do not play middles unless they're free or just a couple cent loss

**Smoke** · 11-18-16, 05:51 PM

Be a man. Let it ride.

**funnyb25** · 11-18-16, 06:35 PM

Would go for the middle here...BOL

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**Brooks** · 11-18-16, 06:47 PM

dont dilute +ev. if gtech is 3.5 across the board and you can get +4 that is another matter and you should buy it up to 5 for -130 for 25% of the original wager

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Brooks

dont dilute +ev. if gtech is 3.5 across the board and you can get +4 that is another matter and you should buy it up to 5 for -130 for 25% of the original wager

ehhh I dislike buying points to middle in college hoops. If this was football or NBA or even high level NCAA hoops, I would have middled by now but these lower level games tend to get crazy IMO

**TheMoneyShot** · 11-18-16, 06:50 PM

If you're a serious handicapper and you want to make profits majority of the time.... I wouldn't try to middle.

If you have money to burn... and you're wagering for fun... go ahead and try to middle. I would only imagine you'd burn a lot more money in the long run.

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

If you're a serious handicapper and you want to make profits majority of the time.... I wouldn't try to middle.

If you have money to burn... and you're wagering for fun... go ahead and try to middle. I would only imagine you'd burn a lot more money in the long run.

yeah that was my first gut thought as well in this type of game. Thanks for the serious responses guys

**BuckyOne** · 11-18-16, 07:11 PM

Why did you lead with it to begin with? Did you get lucky that it went in your favor that much or did you identify good value from the get go? Did you take other leads or just this one?

It is kinda like making bets and then betting them back trying for a middle at halftime. You have to eat the losers and then middle off or take a juice bath on the others. Absolutely have to hit a middle or two to make money.

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by BuckyOne

Why did you lead with it to begin with? Did you get lucky that it went in your favor that much or did you identify good value from the get go? Did you take other leads or just this one?

It is kinda like making bets and then betting them back trying for a middle at halftime. You have to eat the losers and then middle off or take a juice bath on the others. Absolutely have to hit a middle or two to make money.

I made the line Ohio PK so I took Ohio +3 -115. Now the line is Memphis +3.5 (-105). My numbers say make both plays but not sure the value is there with both of those together

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-18-16, 07:23 PM

powell I am like a genie and will grant you 3 answers to questions

powell are you sure you want this to be one?

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

powell I am like a genie and will grant you 3 answers to questions

powell are you sure you want this to be one?

Yep bring it on Rudy

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-18-16, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I made the line Ohio PK so I took Ohio +3 -115. Now the line is Memphis +3.5 (-105). My numbers say make both plays but not sure the value is there with both of those together

you answered your own question

ofcourse there is value on both sides, according to YOUR stats

whether your numbers are correct or not is a different story but assuming they are, yes bet both sides here

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

you answered your own question

ofcourse there is value on both sides, according to YOUR stats

whether your numbers are correct or not is a different story but assuming they are, yes bet both sides here

alright wasting another wish. What if Josh Pastner is coaching the team you'd be betting on by going for the middle?

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-18-16, 08:12 PM

this is where your thinking is wrong

it shouldn't be about middling, it should be about placing +EV bets

**Smoke** · 11-18-16, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

this is where your thinking is wrong

it shouldn't be about middling, it should be about placing +EV bets

Rudy put down the malt liquor bro

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-18-16, 08:24 PM

smokey NO, colt 45 tonight

**BuckyOne** · 11-18-16, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I made the line Ohio PK so I took Ohio +3 -115. Now the line is Memphis +3.5 (-105). My numbers say make both plays but not sure the value is there with both of those together

I like what you said there. Had you been busy elsewhere and did not get in at openers you would have seen value at the close and taken that. So, i agree with that tactic that was mentioned here. The math is with you.

I know it is part of the game but it bugs me to make a great play and come away with an empty sack. My style is like take the +155 money line on the closing dog (mould a profit either way) and you still have a 3 point middle shot.
I see it is 13-13 early - pulling for your play to work out!

**zizoudane10** · 11-18-16, 08:47 PM

Key to your initial question is: is it an overestimated middle (sure thing you do it), or an underestimated middle (nope, stay away).

**jjgold** · 11-18-16, 09:08 PM

+ EV middles only ones you should play but hard to find

**daneblazer** · 11-18-16, 09:10 PM

I'll do it sometimes but it's rare. Last year I got unc +3.5 and baylor +3 in a bowl game. College is just so volitale I usually just stick with the better line

**Hu$tle** · 11-18-16, 09:58 PM

Go for the middle if you think it will hit or has a good chance

depends on what sports too

**funnyb25** · 11-18-16, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Hu$tle

Go for the middle if you think it will hit or has a good chance

depends on what sports too

Come on man....so we don't go for the middle if we think it will lose?

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 10:00 PM

didn't do it and it paid off. Ohio pulling away very late. Just couldn't stomach wasting a winner on a middle knowing Pastner was the the other coach

**lonegambler23** · 11-18-16, 10:05 PM

if you think of hedging, you shouldnt be gambling.

**funnyb25** · 11-18-16, 10:08 PM

lol... Let's make a bet, and pray we can get out and only lose juice...funny

**b1slickguy** · 11-18-16, 10:12 PM

I don't usually meddle in middles and hedges, but seeing the success of other posters middling and hedging has my interest peaked. Good luck.

**BuckyOne** · 11-18-16, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

+ EV middles only ones you should play but hard to find

you mean bang-bang plays - get both sides and do not pay any juice? Then the only thing that can go wrong is you cannot collect from one side.

**BuckyOne** · 11-18-16, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

didn't do it and it paid off. Ohio pulling away very late. Just couldn't stomach wasting a winner on a middle knowing Pastner was the the other coach

Nice play - were you able to determine why the game swung six points - injury - tout release???

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by BuckyOne

Nice play - were you able to determine why the game swung six points - injury - tout release???

I didn't see any injuries but don't follow touts much. Line def got bet up too high though IMO

**biggie12** · 11-18-16, 10:42 PM

Tpowell for such a pro u are asking some real amateur questions lately

**BuckyOne** · 11-18-16, 10:53 PM

This topic motivates a good query for a data base. Is a 6 point move predictive or not? Did it still have value at the close?

**TPowell** · 11-18-16, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

Tpowell for such a pro u are asking some real amateur questions lately

amateur question? I asked a general question and gave my current example. You morons are too afraid to ask anything and thats why you stay barreled in

**TheMoneyShot** · 11-18-16, 11:46 PM

A quick example of a game that I think you could of middled... Michigan At Iowa +24 college football. Line closed at 24.... I had +23.5

At the half I believe Michigan was only winning by 2?

Well.... there's your middle... go for it.

And we know how that turned out.

I don't think there is ever a scenario to middle anything. Oddsmakers are way too good.

**TPowell** · 11-19-16, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

A quick example of a game that I think you could of middled... Michigan At Iowa +24 college football. Line closed at 24.... I had +23.5

At the half I believe Michigan was only winning by 2?

Well.... there's your middle... go for it.

And we know how that turned out.

I don't think there is ever a scenario to middle anything. Oddsmakers are way too good.

Not true, I missed the best shot of a night on Arky. I had UT Arlington +12 and they were up 11 at half. 2H line was Arky -9.5. Keep in mind that Arky was down 20 points at 1 time in the first half and closed strong against a road weary UT Arlington. Arkansas ended up winning the game by a few