Trump to win individual states...

[reigle9]

I wouldn't bet anything. It's all fugazi. I have literally (and I shockingly know the definition of "literally" despite being on the internet) have never seen a hillary sign. It's 100% trump signs.

[SharpAngles]

NOV 1, 2016 AT 3:56 PM
The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There


By Harry Enten

Over the last eight years, Nevada has been getting bluer. Though its voters supported George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, the state voted for President Obama by a wider margin than the nation as a whole in 2008and 2012. So, it’s been interesting that Hillary Clinton has not pulled far ahead of Donald Trump there. The latest FiveThirtyEight forecast puts her at 47 percent, and Trump at 45. Are the polls showing a close race just wrong? Or, has something in the state changed politically?
We’ll have to wait a week to know for sure, but the early vote in Nevada suggests Clinton is relatively safe there.
Nevada is fairly unusual among states that allow early voting because it releases data on the party registration of early voters. Most people in the state vote early, and it hasn’t changed its early voting rules, giving us the 2012 election as a baseline. That means we can know if one party is voting in large numbers while at the same time understanding whether that large lead is going to hold through Election Day. Of course, it’s always possible that the early vote can mislead, so some caution is warranted.
Still, many more Democrats than Republicans have voted in early balloting. Through early Tuesday, 43 percent of early and absentee votes have been cast by registered Democrats and just 37 percent have been cast by registered Republicans. Democrats have a lead in the number of raw votes of greater than 30,000 out of more than 500,000 votes cast, which is about 50 percent of all votes cast in the 2012 presidential election.
Indeed, the pattern in early voting looks pretty much the same as in 2012¹. After one week of early voting in 2012, Democrats made up 45 percent of early voters and Republicans made up 37 percent. Those numbers held through the second week of early voting and into the general election. Democrats had a 7-point edge after early voting that year and a 6-point edge after all the votes were counted. The fact that the registration numbers didn’t change very much after early voting shouldn’t be surprising, because absentee and early voters made up about 70 percent of all ballots cast.
The similarity to 2012 in the early numbers in Nevada is good news for Clinton. Obama won the state by 7 points (or about the Democratic edge in the registration of those who voted). Some polls have given Clinton the same-size lead in the past month, but the current FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast puts her advantage at between 1 and 2 percentage points in Nevada. If Trump were to lose Nevada, the polls-only model gives him just a 9 percent chance of winning the election. It’s a near must-win for him, as most swing states are.
It’s always possible that some Democrats may vote for Trump, or that unaffiliated voters could go heavily for Trump. The math on that, however — as calculated by Nevada reporter Jon Ralston — rarely works out in Trump’s favor. Most Democrats are expected to vote for Clinton and most Republicans are expected to vote for Trump, which allows Democrats to take advantage of their upper hand in the party registration of early voters.
It should be noted that it wouldn’t be surprising for the Nevada polls to be off. The polls infamously predicted Democrat Harry Reid’s defeat in the 2010 Senate race, and underestimated Obama’s margin in the state in 2012. Those errors may have to do with the difficulty of polling the Hispanic population, which constitutes 15 percent of all voters in the state. As David Wasserman has pointed out on FiveThirtyEight, Latinos seem to be voting in large numbers throughout the nation in 2016. If Latinos are difficult to poll in Nevada and they are turning out, it could cause the polls to be too Republican once again in the state, masking Clinton’s lead.
Ralston, who correctly called the victories of Obama in 2012 (based on the early vote) and Reid in 2010, thinks the polls are leaning too Republican, given the early vote numbers. As he told me: “I’ve been following these early voting numbers for a few cycles and they predict a lot in Nevada: the 2012 Obama victory, the 2014 red wave. Unless there are seriously strange voting patterns going on, this is just about over here for Trump.” If it is over for Trump in Nevada, he loses six electoral votes in a race he probably can’t afford to lose.

[pilebuck13]

I wouldn't bet anything. It's all fugazi. I have literally (and I shockingly know the definition of "literally" despite being on the internet) have never seen a hillary sign. It's 100% trump signs.

this is so obvious I'm sorry a Hispanic vote alone will not get her to win Florida...she is banking on women gays and a few closed minded stubborn democrats...most married women do not like her single women yes she has that....people are honestly forgetting a very very important factor to this race she does not have all of the democratic vote not even close...not to mention all the Bernie supporters are not voting for her...and many have flipped from always voting democratic to voting for trump because they can't stand her....while trump is not getting all of the republican vote he will get most I can tell you the ones he does not get will not vote for Hillary....more have flipped democratic to trump this is obvious as all hell and the polls and talking heads can't wrap there heads around it....if politics have always been the same for decades a dark horse like trump has them all stumbling

[trillz]

If there was an underdog state I would pick, this would be it.

Don't see how that doesn't cash. I lived there for 15 years and I've paid attention to when trump would go there seems like he has a lot of support. Also a lot of Bernie supporters I know from there that are pissed he got screwed

[pilebuck13]

^ sharp they are assuming that every registered democrat is voting for Hillary this is not the case man.....if you have ever participated in a political party or caucus democratic or republican you are registered under that party. So someone could have registered years ago as a democrat....doesn't mean they will vote democratic...and if there is any election that has democrats flipping it's this one

[trillz]

^ sharp they are assuming that every registered democrat is voting for Hillary this is not the case man.....if you have ever participated in a political party or caucus democratic or republican you are registered under that party. So someone could have registered years ago as a democrat....doesn't mean they will vote democratic...and if there is any election that has democrats flipping it's this one

Buckles put a hundy on it

[StackinGreen]

^ sharp they are assuming that every registered democrat is voting for Hillary this is not the case man.....if you have ever participated in a political party or caucus democratic or republican you are registered under that party. So someone could have registered years ago as a democrat....doesn't mean they will vote democratic...and if there is any election that has democrats flipping it's this one

I continue to be baffled as to why people do not understand this.

The obvious, and basic idea is this: People, and lots of them, are charged up for Trump. Not many people are charged for Clinton. It is a battle of turnouts, and Trump has already proven himself on this level.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Go get em, Snowball. Hope u clean up!

[pilebuck13]

Buckles put a hundy on it

Trillz I will

[Snowball]

Go get em, Snowball. Hope u clean up!

thanks Chucky. Look at this. Bobby Knight talking now. Huge crowd in Wisconsin

[Greget]

Prominent Democrats (starting at the very top - Obama washing his hands of the secret server mess) bailing on Hillary. Now they're saying Michelle Obama and Elizabeth Warren stopped following Hillary on Twitter.

#bitches

This is why we should have IQ tests to be able to vote

[Greget]

^ sharp they are assuming that every registered democrat is voting for Hillary this is not the case man.....if you have ever participated in a political party or caucus democratic or republican you are registered under that party. So someone could have registered years ago as a democrat....doesn't mean they will vote democratic...and if there is any election that has democrats flipping it's this one

Far more Republicans are abandoning Trump for Clinton or 3rd party than vice versa. Trump will likely lose Utah because of this.

[Greget]

NOV 1, 2016 AT 3:56 PM
The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There


By Harry Enten

Over the last eight years, Nevada has been getting bluer. Though its voters supported George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, the state voted for President Obama by a wider margin than the nation as a whole in 2008and 2012. So, it’s been interesting that Hillary Clinton has not pulled far ahead of Donald Trump there. The latest FiveThirtyEight forecast puts her at 47 percent, and Trump at 45. Are the polls showing a close race just wrong? Or, has something in the state changed politically?
We’ll have to wait a week to know for sure, but the early vote in Nevada suggests Clinton is relatively safe there.
Nevada is fairly unusual among states that allow early voting because it releases data on the party registration of early voters. Most people in the state vote early, and it hasn’t changed its early voting rules, giving us the 2012 election as a baseline. That means we can know if one party is voting in large numbers while at the same time understanding whether that large lead is going to hold through Election Day. Of course, it’s always possible that the early vote can mislead, so some caution is warranted.
Still, many more Democrats than Republicans have voted in early balloting. Through early Tuesday, 43 percent of early and absentee votes have been cast by registered Democrats and just 37 percent have been cast by registered Republicans. Democrats have a lead in the number of raw votes of greater than 30,000 out of more than 500,000 votes cast, which is about 50 percent of all votes cast in the 2012 presidential election.
Indeed, the pattern in early voting looks pretty much the same as in 2012¹. After one week of early voting in 2012, Democrats made up 45 percent of early voters and Republicans made up 37 percent. Those numbers held through the second week of early voting and into the general election. Democrats had a 7-point edge after early voting that year and a 6-point edge after all the votes were counted. The fact that the registration numbers didn’t change very much after early voting shouldn’t be surprising, because absentee and early voters made up about 70 percent of all ballots cast.
The similarity to 2012 in the early numbers in Nevada is good news for Clinton. Obama won the state by 7 points (or about the Democratic edge in the registration of those who voted). Some polls have given Clinton the same-size lead in the past month, but the current FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast puts her advantage at between 1 and 2 percentage points in Nevada. If Trump were to lose Nevada, the polls-only model gives him just a 9 percent chance of winning the election. It’s a near must-win for him, as most swing states are.
It’s always possible that some Democrats may vote for Trump, or that unaffiliated voters could go heavily for Trump. The math on that, however — as calculated by Nevada reporter Jon Ralston — rarely works out in Trump’s favor. Most Democrats are expected to vote for Clinton and most Republicans are expected to vote for Trump, which allows Democrats to take advantage of their upper hand in the party registration of early voters.
It should be noted that it wouldn’t be surprising for the Nevada polls to be off. The polls infamously predicted Democrat Harry Reid’s defeat in the 2010 Senate race, and underestimated Obama’s margin in the state in 2012. Those errors may have to do with the difficulty of polling the Hispanic population, which constitutes 15 percent of all voters in the state. As David Wasserman has pointed out on FiveThirtyEight, Latinos seem to be voting in large numbers throughout the nation in 2016. If Latinos are difficult to poll in Nevada and they are turning out, it could cause the polls to be too Republican once again in the state, masking Clinton’s lead.
Ralston, who correctly called the victories of Obama in 2012 (based on the early vote) and Reid in 2010, thinks the polls are leaning too Republican, given the early vote numbers. As he told me: “I’ve been following these early voting numbers for a few cycles and they predict a lot in Nevada: the 2012 Obama victory, the 2014 red wave. Unless there are seriously strange voting patterns going on, this is just about over here for Trump.” If it is over for Trump in Nevada, he loses six electoral votes in a race he probably can’t afford to lose.

A thousand idiotic right wing comments, and one straight forward statistical analysis decimates the entire lot.

[d2bets]

When the dust settles, it's going to end up looking a lot like 2012, maybe Trump will win a couple of Obama states, but not enough. Don't forget Romney was 64 away from 270.

[rizespor]

Betting market is largely based on the polls. Who knows just how accurate they are in the first place?? Trump behind by double digits and he just makes it up in a week?

Everywhere I look on social media, Facebook twitter YouTube, so much support for trump. And not just support for him but overwhelming disdain for Hillary. I live in a blue state and even people I talk to, no one can fukking stand Hillary. Women, blacks, asians, even Hispanics.

[d2bets]

Betting market is largely based on the polls. Who knows just how accurate they are in the first place?? Trump behind by double digits and he just makes it up in a week?

Everywhere I look on social media, Facebook twitter YouTube, so much support for trump. And not just support for him but overwhelming disdain for Hillary. I live in a blue state and even people I talk to, no one can fukking stand Hillary. Women, blacks, asians, even Hispanics.

And I live in a blue state and can't find anyone who would admit wanting to vote for Trump.

But everyone has their own biases. The polls are more broad and scientific. There is a science to it. Is it perfect? No. But it's pretty damn good.

[Mr KLC]

Just played around with the electoral map. I think this thing goes 269-269. Out of the major swing states I have Trump taking NC, FL, OH, IA, NV, AZ, NH. Hillary gets MI, PA, VA, WI, CO. With the other states that are likely to be won, this makes it an even tie. Let the games begin!

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/election-map-quiz/#AL=gop&AK=gop&AZ=gop&AR=gop&CA=dem&CO=dem&CT=dem&DE=dem&DC=dem&FL=gop&GA=gop&HI=dem&ID=gop&IL=dem&IN=gop&IA=gop&KS=gop&KY=gop&LA=gop&ME=dem&MD=dem&MA=dem&MI=dem&MN=dem&MS=gop&MO=gop&MT=gop&NE=gop&NV=gop&NH=gop&NJ=dem&NM=dem&NY=dem&NC=gop&ND=gop&OH=gop&OK=gop&OR=dem&PA=dem&RI=dem&SC=gop&SD=gop&TN=gop&TX=gop&UT=gop&VT=dem&VA=dem&WA=dem&WV=gop&WI=dem&WY=gop

[habitualwinning]

Just played around with the electoral map. I think this thing goes 269-269. Out of the major swing states I have Trump taking NC, FL, OH, IA, NV, AZ, NH. Hillary gets MI, PA, VA, WI, CO. With the other states that are likely to be won, this makes it an even tie. Let the games begin!

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/20...&WI=dem&WY=gop

That would be awesome. Did you give Trump the 1 electoral vote from Maine's 2nd district though? He's up there. If you already did that then never mind but if you didn't that means Trump wins your projection 270-268.

[StackinGreen]

Betting market is largely based on the polls. Who knows just how accurate they are in the first place?? Trump behind by double digits and he just makes it up in a week?

Everywhere I look on social media, Facebook twitter YouTube, so much support for trump. And not just support for him but overwhelming disdain for Hillary. I live in a blue state and even people I talk to, no one can fukking stand Hillary. Women, blacks, asians, even Hispanics.

Internet analysis also shows Trump ahead big time. The fact remains that many are excited for his ticket, and not many for Clinton.

+300 or more is the best bet you'll make all year.

[StackinGreen]

Just played around with the electoral map. I think this thing goes 269-269. Out of the major swing states I have Trump taking NC, FL, OH, IA, NV, AZ, NH. Hillary gets MI, PA, VA, WI, CO. With the other states that are likely to be won, this makes it an even tie. Let the games begin!

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/20...&WI=dem&WY=gop

In that scenario the Maine divvy puts Trump over the top, 270-268.

It won't come down to that.

I think Trump has a real shot at getting both MI and PA, but just to be on the conservative side, I'll say he gets MI and not PA.

Either way, that's a death blow for the opposition.

[Itsamazing777]

Either there is more trump support than the news will admit, or Democrats just don't put signs out? But I doubt that.....
I am in Michigan and same thing here.


Trump surging

[StackinGreen]

^ remember, Bernie was "down" 10-20 points in Michigan before ... he won in the primary against Clinton.

Trump all day.

[Snowball]

reputable reports of black turnout collapsing in North Carolina and in Florida.

Florida Voting Participation Rates
Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward Counties

2012:
Black 36%
White 35%
Hispanic 23%

2016:
Black 22%
White 40%
Hispanic 31%
source:
Daniel A. Smith Professor of Political Science University of Florida

[Mr KLC]

reputable reports of black turnout collapsing in North Carolina and in Florida.

Florida Voting Participation Rates
Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward Counties

2012:
Black 36%
White 35%
Hispanic 23%

2016:
Black 22%
White 40%
Hispanic 31%
source:
Daniel A. Smith Professor of Political Science University of Florida

News was trying to rebut that by saying there is a higher percentage of Hispanics voting. From what I've seen, that probably won't make a gigantic differences. Polls I've looked at show a higher percentage of support for Trump from Hispanics than from blacks.

[KingJD31]

It's all about turnout, so far dems are down from 2012 and repubs are up.

[habitualwinning]

I live in a county that leans Dem and that Obama won in 2012 and 2008 pretty easily. Back then there were signs everywhere for Obama. On every major street corner, outside business entrances, in front of school lots etc. People were wearing shirts and hats for him. Calls and door knocks for him. I literally haven't seen 1 Hillary sign this year. Haven't seen anybody wearing her shirts or hats and no calls or knocks. If that's indicative, then she's done. Not only that but Trump has way more support on social media, another good indicator of where people actually are. Not just their actual page followers but my feeds have been jammed with pro-Trump and anti-Hillary posts for weeks. Ironically most of them are from my girl and minority friends, the demographics that supposedly support Hillary according to the media, lol.

[mcdonae101]

^ remember, Bernie was "down" 10-20 points in Michigan before ... he won in the primary against Clinton.

Trump all day.

Hillary was -2000 I think on Michigan, and lost. Same thing gonna happen here, she is drawing slim on winning the presidency

[konck]

She ain't shockin' nothing.

I've told you guys a long time, this is time for easy money. The market is horribly skewed based on nothing but historical inertia, and it is inefficient as heck.

You'd be a fool to not grab Trump at +400 or whatever you can get it at right now. I did that months ago, forgetting that I had him 15-1 already last year.

The tidal wave is coming.

Im not voting for the Criminal or the Reality Shyster ....but do you really believe people are ok with Idiot Mouth Trump having his finger on the button.....Oh yeah he loves WAR and He will Bomb the shit out of them lol he never served! He ducked out on a fake foot problem but he was playing sports at the time lol Guys a complete bag of wasted wind

[rizespor]

Trump's most likely path to victory



Trump is favored in every state I marked red except FL (coinflip), NC (coinflip), NV (+200) and NH (+250)

Polls in the 2nd congressional district of Maine have Clinton and Trump in a dead heat. But even that would be extraneous since Trump would win the House vote in a 269-269 tie.

And don't forget states in blue Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado are still within reach for Trump too.

This is a very real possibility, gents. Lot can still happen with a week left but I think everyone can agree Hillary is reeling and Trump has all the momentum

[d2bets]

Trump is favored in every state I marked red except FL (coinflip), NC (coinflip), NV (+200) and NH (+250)

Polls in the 2nd congressional district of Maine have Clinton and Trump in a dead heat. But even that would be extraneous since Trump would win the House vote in a 269-269 tie.

And don't forget states in blue Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado are still within reach for Trump too.

This is a very real possibility, gents. Lot can still happen with a week left but I think everyone can agree Hillary is reeling and Trump has all the momentum

New Hampshire polling:


Polling Data

RCP Average	10/22 - 10/30	--	--	46.0	41.3	6.3	1.3	Clinton +4.7
WMUR/UNH	10/26 - 10/30	641 LV	3.9	46	39	6	1	Clinton +7
Emerson	10/23 - 10/25	600 LV	4.9	46	43	6	2	Clinton +3
Monmouth	10/22 - 10/25	401 LV	4.9	46	42	7	1	Clinton +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist	10/20 - 10/24	768 LV	3.5	45	36	10	4	Clinton +9
UMass Amherst/WBZ	10/17 - 10/21	772 LV	4.5	43	38	8	3	Clinton +5
Emerson	10/17 - 10/19	900 LV	3.2	44	36	10	6	Clinton +8
WMUR/UNH	10/11 - 10/17	770 LV	3.5	49	34	8	2	Clinton +15
WBUR/MassINC	10/10 - 10/12	501 LV	4.4	41	38	11	3	Clinton +3
UMass Lowell/7News	10/7 - 10/11	517 LV	4.9	45	39	9	2	Clinton +6
Boston Globe/Suffolk	10/3 - 10/5	500 LV	4.4	44	42	5	1	Clinton +2
WBUR/MassINC	9/27 - 9/29	502 LV	4.4	42	35	13	4	Clinton +7
Monmouth	9/17 - 9/20	400 LV	4.9	47	38	10	1	Clinton +9
NBC/WSJ/Marist	9/6 - 9/8	737 LV	3.6	39	37	15	3	Clinton +2
Emerson	9/3 - 9/5	600 LV	3.9	42	37	14	4	Clinton +5
WMUR/UNH	8/20 - 8/28	433 LV	4.7	43	32	12	4	Clinton +11
CBS News/YouGov	8/10 - 8/12	990 LV	4.3	45	36	5	3	Clinton +9
WBUR/MassINC	7/29 - 8/1	609 LV	4.0	47	32	8	3	Clinton +15

[sportsfan9698]

I would be willing to bet almost any state except for just a few like NY CA and a couple others. I think Trump wins in a landslide

BUT I also think that there is a significant chance that this election could be held up by lawsuits and such for weeks or months... I'm not willing to allow my bankroll to be tied up

[sportsfan9698]

In that scenario the Maine divvy puts Trump over the top, 270-268.

It won't come down to that.

I think Trump has a real shot at getting both MI and PA, but just to be on the conservative side, I'll say he gets MI and not PA.

Either way, that's a death blow for the opposition.

Exactly my thoughts

[rizespor]

Yeah he's an underdog in NH no doubt but just look at what's happened in the last week. He was behind in every key state and now he's ahead in Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, he was a huge underdog in North Carolina and now some places have him favored to win there

[rizespor]

I live in a county that leans Dem and that Obama won in 2012 and 2008 pretty easily. Back then there were signs everywhere for Obama. On every major street corner, outside business entrances, in front of school lots etc. People were wearing shirts and hats for him. Calls and door knocks for him. I literally haven't seen 1 Hillary sign this year. Haven't seen anybody wearing her shirts or hats and no calls or knocks. If that's indicative, then she's done. Not only that but Trump has way more support on social media, another good indicator of where people actually are. Not just their actual page followers but my feeds have been jammed with pro-Trump and anti-Hillary posts for weeks. Ironically most of them are from my girl and minority friends, the demographics that supposedly support Hillary according to the media, lol.

This is exactly my experience. I live in a blue state and the polls just have not synced up to what I've been seeing with my eyes.

[StackinGreen]

I've also said this for MONTHS

Best bet you'll ever make, get that CASH on Trump