Better to bet all games the same unit size or vary unit sizes?

[5 star bomb]

What do you guys think? Is it better to bet games say all 1 unit. Or is it better to rate them 1-5 or something....

[Masu485]

i think it's better to just do the same size for a certain period of time. but i guarantee everyone will disagree with me and base it on the confidence they have in the play.

[5 star bomb]

i have been fighting with myself over this... I dont know what is better. I am trying to tweek something in my baseball capping bc I went on a little losing streak. Trying to determine if I should change all to the same unit size with plays. I feel I am better with the bigger unit bets though, maybe il cut down the amount of games? I dunno yet. Would like some more input here

[durito]

Your bets should be sized via the Kelly Criterion.

In your case it gives the perfect bet size for all of your wagers: $0.

[G's pks]

Your bets should be sized via the Kelly Criterion.

In your case it gives the perfect bet size for all of your wagers: $0.

[InTheHole]

Variable betting in proportion to perceived advantage

[G's pks]

If you are a stiff...should you be betting at all?

[Nicky Santoro]

NEVER bet the same amount every game.. i can have 30 bets in 1 day.. i'll have like 6 small bets, 18 medium sized bets, and 6 large bets..

i decide size of bet on how good the # i got.. if line is -7 and i got -6.5, i put a small wager. if line is -7 and i got -6,, i put a med wager. If line is -7 and i get -5.5, i put a large wager.etc.. this way, your ROI will be much better.. if i put the same on every game, no matter what the line advantage, i will make way way less..

[InTheHole]

Yes Nicky...funny how some people bet equal regardless of perceived edge.

[Nicky Santoro]

here is a small chart i made just to set an example of why to never bet same on every game.. i made this chart as easy as possible to understand.

lets say you have 3 bets of 100 each

bet 1, you have 1% adv.. $100 bet = 1$ proft
bet 2, you have 3% adv.. $100 bet = 3$ profit
bet 3, you have 5% adv.. $100 bet = 5$ profit

Total profit = 9$

______

Now you raise your bets on bigger adv

bet 1, you have 1% adv.. $100 bet =1$ profit
bet 2, you have 3% adv.. $300$ bet = 9$ profit
bet 3, you have 5% adv... 500$ bet =25$

Total profit = 35$


look how you make 4x more by raising bets on bigger edge you get.

[darrell74]

You bet on a game to the point to where if you lose, you can't hate yourself
because if you do hate yourself, after a wager loss
you bet too much

picture yourself, after you lose, on evey wager you place, then you'll be fine

[G's pks]

if you stiff people like yourself...you can go undefeated!

[twister]

Betting on "confidence" is the stupidest thing you can do. Confidence is not only subjective, but will, without doubt, vary from play to play - even if in reality both plays have a similar or equal edge.

If you are looking to vary your bet sizes, you should have a database/log of at least 2000 of your previous plays, along with all the data you use to determine your plays, and then see how your current play matches up with previous similar plays. You then calculate how much edge you had on those similar plays, and bet accordingly.

e.g

Home Dog +100, Home team BA .290-.310, Road team BA 2.70-2.90, Home team SP ERA 3.00-3.50, Team SP ERA 3.00-3.50, Home Team Bullpen ERA 4.50-5.00, Road Team Bullpen ERA 4.00-4.50.
Your picks in this particular situation have gone 220-200.

From this, you can calculate your edge and thus how much you should wager.

Personally, I still wouldn't do this. Unless you are hitting a ridiculous 70-80% in a particular spot, 200-300 similar plays is not enough to factor in variance - your plays could still be -EV/breakeven in the long run, which means you are overbetting significantly more than you would be otherwise. In fact, until I had 1000 similar plays, for each possible combination of line/data, I wouldn't alter my betting units.

[donjuan]

here is a small chart i made just to set an example of why to never bet same on every game.. i made this chart as easy as possible to understand.

lets say you have 3 bets of 100 each

bet 1, you have 1% adv.. $100 bet = 1$ proft
bet 2, you have 3% adv.. $100 bet = 3$ profit
bet 3, you have 5% adv.. $100 bet = 5$ profit

Total profit = 9$

______

Now you raise your bets on bigger adv

bet 1, you have 1% adv.. $100 bet =1$ profit
bet 2, you have 3% adv.. $300$ bet = 9$ profit
bet 3, you have 5% adv... 500$ bet =25$

Total profit = 35$


look how you make 4x more by raising bets on bigger edge you get.

While you are right about varying your bet by edge, this reasoning is at a mind-boggling level of retardation. DUCY?

[5 star bomb]

Some very good info in here... thanks Nicky and Twister

[donjuan]

Some very good info in here... thanks Nicky and Twister

The only good info is in Durito's post.

[ICE-BLOOD]

Vary your unit size, but not by much. See where you are winning more and increase unit size by 10-20 percent. The 1-5 star plays is too extreme for everyday plays

[5 star bomb]

thanks Ice... I am thinking about changing to 1-3 unit system

[MonkeyF0cker]

The only good info is in Durito's post.

True, but these clowns don't like to hear from people who know what they're doing. They'd rather take advice from the crowd that is just as clueless as them.