Win%?

[twister]

Let's say you were betting on every single NBA sides for next season, so around 1230 games. For arguments sake, let's just make the line -110 for all 1230 games. What would YOU consider to be a good win%?

[Matt Rain]

> 52.381%

[SlickFazzer]

53

[twister]

> 52.381%

I meant if you just assumed you would break-even, what realistic win% would you personally be satisfied with given the amount of work you had put in.

[twister]

53

That would leave you with around +20 units for the season (assuming risking a flat 1 unit per bet). Would you be happy with that return?

[Ganchrow]

Assuming no prior knowledge, you'd need to hit 674 or more out of 1230 (~54.797%) to be at least 95% certain that you were a breakeven handicapper or better.

For 99%+ certitude you'd need a hit rate of at least 686 out of 1230 (~55.772%).

[twister]

Assuming no prior knowledge, you'd need to hit 674 or more out of 1230 (~54.797%) to be at least 95% certain that you were a breakeven handicapper or better.

For 99%+ certitude you'd need a hit rate of at least 686 out of 1230 (~55.772%).

Ganchrow, could you calculate what one would need to hit, out of say 2000, -110 lines, to be 99%+ certain that they were a +25 units or better handicapper?

Edit: Assuming risking 1 unit to win 0.90909 units.

[Matt Rain]

I meant if you just assumed you would break-even, what realistic win% would you personally be satisfied with given the amount of work you had put in.

I prefer to use ROI% instead of a win rate. I'm happy with a 2% ROI over the long term, so ~25 units after risking 1 unit on 1230 games would be satisfactory.