Guys, can USC upset Alabama?

[TheSideBet]

I do like Utah as well. They're strong along both lines.

They get USC at a good time, couple of weeks removed from the physical game against Bama and the coming off of the Stanford game and in Salt Lake City. I like their chances heads up. Days away! Good luck this season.

[BigdaddyQH]

nobody ever made money long term fading great teams in any sport

JJ, when are you going to learn to keep your stupid, uneducated mouth shut. To show you just exactly how stupid you are, here is something to shut you up. In the past 4 years, Alabama is 50-6 S/U including two NC's. During the same period of time, they are 26-26 ATS. That is a total of -260 if you wagered $100.00 per game. That is a LOSER, you dumb S.O.B. Just like you are. Now shut up until you are ready to actually make a wager with money, not just shoot your ignorant mouth off.

[Sam Odom]

QH , bringing HEAT

[funnyb25]

Haha bigdaddy always fired up

[RudyRuetigger]

JJ, when are you going to learn to keep your stupid, uneducated mouth shut. To show you just exactly how stupid you are, here is something to shut you up. In the past 4 years, Alabama is 50-6 S/U including two NC's. During the same period of time, they are 26-26 ATS. That is a total of -260 if you wagered $100.00 per game. That is a LOSER, you dumb S.O.B. Just like you are. Now shut up until you are ready to actually make a wager with money, not just shoot your ignorant mouth off.

ummm you wouldn't have made money fading them either..which is what he said

great example

[TheMoneyShot]

Nothing wrong with taking the points here Giant.

[grease lightnin]

QH acting tough on the internet when he's a fagola in real life... doesn't realize JJ does the opposite.

Hey fagdaddy, I bet JJ would wrap your tail around your head for you

[Bcatswin]

Can pigs fly?

[JayDr3am]

JJ, when are you going to learn to keep your stupid, uneducated mouth shut. To show you just exactly how stupid you are, here is something to shut you up. In the past 4 years, Alabama is 50-6 S/U including two NC's. During the same period of time, they are 26-26 ATS. That is a total of -260 if you wagered $100.00 per game. That is a LOSER, you dumb S.O.B. Just like you are. Now shut up until you are ready to actually make a wager with money, not just shoot your ignorant mouth off.

love the fact that he will insult you while also throwing out accurate analysis. just awesome

[ringemup]

I will likely break this game down in the college thread in a week or so but for beginners loads of motivation on USC's side as they are coming off a disappointing season in which they felt like they were contenders but make no mistake they played in a top 2 conference last year. Bama breaks in a new QB which is always tricky but is stacked with 4, 5 star guys everywhere. They did lose some great players on D and Henry, including veteran center Kelly so they might not be as cohesive up front in the first game or two.

It will come down to Max Browne USC QB who has shown great ability in the spring and can hit the deep ball well especially with a threat like JuJu Smith outside. One thing Helton has to do is find ways to execute quicker 3 step drops against a very stingy front 7 for Bama and it will come down to minimizing mistakes for Browne. As far as the line goes obviously I think you will eventually get some action on Bama before gametime and may be able to get a good number on SC for backers. Few more things to check though before concluding my analysis.

[pavyracer]

No they can't. Half the NFL teams could not beat Alabama.

[jjgold]

When was the last time USC won a big game?

[grease lightnin]

No they can't. Half the NFL teams could not beat Alabama.

Pavy troll on suhn

[Biff41]

Agree with other posters, Trojan defense hasn't been tested yet.

[Biff41]

Look for Colorado Rockies to have strong performance vs Brewers

[funnyb25]

Agree with other posters, Trojan defense hasn't been tested yet.

No defense been tested yet...everyone 0-0

[jjgold]

Alabama usually wears down these type teams like Southern California


This could make USC season with a win

[reigle9]

What I've learned from this thread: 12% of posters even try to do research.

[Ra77er]

This is an intriguing thread. I personally am torn over Texas/ND. Looking at these responses it looks like USC but how the hell do you fade bama?

[jjgold]

ND will rip Texas


Alabama game over safe

[ZINISTER]

I've been looking at the market as a whole and with some tough matchups for high profile teams it seems there may be a tendency for losing bettors to pick upsets as the rotation advances through the weekend, creating a nice chase for a large group of bettors.

Some issues are about one team succeeding, some are more about one team failing or letting down. This game depends on whether the "upset" PREDICTION is founded in a USC success or more of an Alabama failure.

If the notion of the upset comes as USC being successful and you see media hype on USC, the chances of a USC outright upset decreases significantly.

On the other hand, if you are expecting an upset to be more of an Alabama let down, there may be a solid underdog bet.

If you can figure out the prevailing mentality for an upset bet and then quantify the media "hype" my assertion about the chances of this game can be backed with evidence.

The problem is that it is week one and it is difficult to assess who is in a position to "let down" their bettors and who is in a position to be a success. We need to see the flow of money.

The good news is that it is a 5:00 game and there will be plenty of market evidence to at least make a probabilistic decision.

One last thing, it isn't as difficult as it may seem to at least lightly quantify the media hype. There are very few news originators in the world and most outlets simple repeat one of those sources for all news, including sports. We also have things like rankings that contribute to the hype. Once you get a few factors down and some experience, it can be done.

Many of you already do this based on feel and what you've seen, it can be very subjective. You can tell when the media is all over one team or not. I encourage you quantify what you are witnessing, or at least keep notes for the future. I say this for a couple of reasons. One is my often repeated mantra of keeping track of your bets and why you made them. The other is that eventually your notes will need to be organized as even one season's worth of information can be overwhelming.

Good Luck, The Giant.

WWWWWWWWWWWWWhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaattt ttttttttttttttttt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ZINISTER]

Take the QB's age multiply it by the number of times his mom has went down on him and divide it by 0. Of course they can upset them! If they score more points.

[ZINISTER]

WILL they upset them? NO you stupid focks can't seem to understand why west coast powerhouses do poorly against east coast powerhouses. The trenches the games are won in the focken trenches. West coast pucies not Detroit players. Kid Rock says so.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Not a good sign when your graduated QB barely beats out a red shirt freshmen for the starting job.....not a big fan of SC coach as I felt he was completely over matched in last years bowl game................QB has looked terrible in spring practice............hate to say it but Alabama wins here by 20 plus

[jjgold]

The worst thing anyone can do is over analyze any sort of a sporting event I think it's a common mistake for many many handicappers

[MoneyLineDawg]

Roll Damn Tide

All of these big games it's always the same thing since Saban has been there...People fall in love with the dogs and Bama just keeps winning

Bama or no play for me but GL

[KVB]

Lmao

When hippy brought the idea of media hype into this thread I thought I’d expand on it. After I wrote the post I showed it to a couple of colleagues…it was late, but I bugged them anyway as I thought it might have been a bit much but was willing to field questions.

They figured that the very readers are the ones who are led around by the nose by a chain comprised of the “hype” or storylines of sports combined with the oddsdmakers and eventual bookmaking that comprise the marketplace.

The fact that they are so led makes it impossible to even understand the effects the media has on them (not “talk sports TV”, but media a sports watcher of any kind cannot avoid, including what emanates from the leagues themselves as well as the very stats produced).

They may know there is hype, but have no idea the effect it causes over time. My colleagues asserted that because of this condition, because they don’t even know it is happening to them, that the very thought of teaching them to quantify it is preposterous.

You see, that post was less about the Bama SC game and more about the nature of predicting high profile upsets. It wasn’t about over analyzing a sporting event.

It was about applied psychology, being applied correctly to sportsbetting. In the end we have psychology and math together.

Quantifying media hype is by no means a sole handicapping method, but with as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers, it’s one that could be almost universally be applied (with a few adjustments).

I agreed about my colleagues’ assessment of readers in this thread and of course they are correct. There’s a poster in this thread that has admitted in the past that he can’t pick a bold set of numbers out of a paragraph (obviously just to troll).

At the same time, however, I claimed that there are some readers who earnestly wish to learn more, there always are, and if interested my introductory post would draw them out; at the very least in a pm.

It’s not the math guy that learned some psychology who rises to the top in betting, it’s the psychology guy who learned some math.

[KVB]

Now if you want about as sharp a math forecast as you will see for the first week of NCAAF football, one based on year to year metrics that are dynamic, I have one.

If you think it’s impossible to have any kind of market beating forecast the first week know that you are mistaken. As I eventually would have alluded to with the psychology topic above, the fact is the markets do the same thing every year, year in and year out. The key to beating it is patience and discipline.

It's not the same method as forecasting that comes later, but seasons often have different segments to them.

My forecast is most certainly not telling, as it won’t tell you anything you don’t already know…Alabama to win by nearly for touchdowns in a game close to 60 points. As far as my opinion goes, I don’t like the agreement this forecast has with weaker predictions yielded from things like last year’s stats, and arrived at without context.

I never like agreeing with those guys.

Good Luck.

[The Giant]

[Seaweed]

Giant you have adjusted well into the 21st century

[CWD]

vicodin one hell of a drug

[USCPHILLYGUY]

WILL they upset them? NO you stupid focks can't seem to understand why west coast powerhouses do poorly against east coast powerhouses. The trenches the games are won in the focken trenches. West coast pucies not Detroit players. Kid Rock says so.

so now Alabama is on the east coast

THIS is why i love SBR

And he's calling guys stupid fuks

[ZINISTER]

East of the Mississippi-West coast kunt!!! That's what I like about SBR hair splitting pucies that haggle about pucie things to make themselves feel better. Whata twat!!

[Itsamazing777]

Saban vs Harbough for the title, so no.

[Slipknot26]

Well from a Bama fan.
Nothing new with a new QB but they're also replacing the Heisman RB .
The OL is going to be a group of youngsters, mostly Freshman and Sophomores. Take away All American Robinson and it's going to be tough.
I expect 2 losses this season but USC isn't one of them.
But everyone is forgetting this year the OL won't be shit compared to years past that easily help a new QB transition.
Hurts will be starter by mid season anyway. Kid will be great . Bateman had his shot last year , he's not that good.
Bama's defense will be great this season
Love the Under 54 with 2 teams who will keep running if they can't get it going .
If this young OL clicks , watch out but I don't expect it to happen .