Economy : Another Bust before years end ?

[Russian Rocket]

The money printing is exactly what will send us into a nose dive once it stops propping up the unviable model. Once all of the false valuations of assets by the endless pumping in and rates start to tick up, watch out. Everyone keeps pointing to the damn stock market number without actually looking into why its at the level it is.

Smart man

[irish1]

This sounds rational, but i would never bet against the American people. Worst recession since the great depression but the USA responded better than any other country in the world. I don't bet against American ingenuity and smarts.

American INGENUITY and SMARTS got us 20 trillion in debt, 20 million unemployed, 12 million and growing on welfare and 7 million homeless. What so smart about that? Even Greget could accomplish that!

[grease lightnin]

Smart man

Um... not really. http://www.multpl.com/

And valuations are likely to be higher for longer in this ultra low interest rate environment. Investors have no choice but to chase yield.

[Russian Rocket]

Um... not really. http://www.multpl.com/

And valuations are likely to be higher for longer in this ultra low interest rate environment. Investors have no choice but to chase yield.

it's not sustainable long term when your economy is in or about to enter recession

[grease lightnin]

it's not sustainable long term when your economy is in or about to enter recession

What isn't sustainable? Ultra low interest rates? Tell that to Japan. Interest rates do need to normailize in order to have a return to normal economic growth and they will....slowly.

Valuations? As you can see from the chart, valuations are not at bubble-like proportions as they were in '00 and '08.

[Russian Rocket]

What isn't sustainable? Ultra low interest rates? Tell that to Japan. Interest rates do need to normailize in order to have a return to normal economic growth and they will....slowly.

Valuations? As you can see from the chart, valuations are not at bubble-like proportions as they were in '00 and '08.

I was talking about rates.
You can't raise rates right now, because you're already seeing an economic slowdown.... if anything the rates needs to be lowered. But even with the current low rates, you're not seeing a lot of demand for free money. I gave you an example on page 2, what signs to look for in recession. Check out the spread between the two and 10-year Treasury notes and tell me how exactly your banks are going to make money going forward, if the spread stays at the current levels?

[grease lightnin]

I was talking about rates.
You can't raise rates right now, because you're already seeing an economic slowdown.... if anything the rates needs to be lowered. But even with the current low rates, you're not seeing a lot of demand for free money. I gave you an example on page 2, what signs to look for in recession. Check out the spread between the two and 10-year Treasury notes and tell me how exactly your banks are going to make money going forward, if the spread stays at the current levels?

In the US, I bet 2nd qtr gdp will be revised up, strong 3rd qtr and we will get at least 1 hike this year.

Banks in the US have not made $ on the spread in quite some time.

[Greget]

US economy is much stronger than EU, because we lowered rates and did QE as soon as the Recession started. EU did the opposite and did Austerity(what Republicans want to do to the US), and their economy has suffered because of it. Look at brexit, UK's economy is tanking and the response from BOE is lowered rates. Trump is trying to Brexit the US.

[Greget]

People have been calling for a recession since Obama took office, the exact opposite happened.

[Russian Rocket]

In the US, I bet 2nd qtr gdp will be revised up, strong 3rd qtr and we will get at least 1 hike this year.

Banks in the US have not made $ on the spread in quite some time.

Hike..this year? Not going to happen my friend...look at the Dollar/Yen chart for the past 3-5 months...that should tell you all you need to know where the dollar is heading for next 6-12 months.

[grease lightnin]

Hike..this year? Not going to happen my friend...look at the Dollar/Yen chart for the past 3-5 months...that should tell you all you need to know where the dollar is heading for next 6-12 months.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/28/wall-street-banks-bet-on-federal-reserve-increasing-interest-rates.html

[lakerboy]

The "market crashed " 2 months ago.

[Russian Rocket]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/28/wall-...est-rates.html

From that same article "...Wall Street banks began the year thinking (or, hoping) that the Fed would raise rates repeatedly this year, only to see those hopes dashed after June's Brexit vote and a weak U.S. jobs number in May..."

All I'm saying is watch the USD/JPY basket - you'd know well ahead of time when the shit starts to heat up as far the possibility of interest rates hike goes.

[grease lightnin]

From that same article "...Wall Street banks began the year thinking (or, hoping) that the Fed would raise rates repeatedly this year, only to see those hopes dashed after June's Brexit vote and a weak U.S. jobs number in May..."

All I'm saying is watch the USD/JPY basket - you'd know well ahead of time when the shit starts to heat up as far the possibility of interest rates hike goes.

I said ONE rate hike before the end of the year. GS and JPM said in the article that they see a hike in Dec...

And usd/jpy could turn in a hurry. It is August

[Russian Rocket]

I said ONE rate hike before the end of the year. GS and JPM said in the article that they see a hike in Dec...

I gotcha...I just personally don't see this happening this year.

I guess we'll see in about 4-5 months who was right or wrong.

BTW: I'm long Dollar...so I'm all for the rate hike.

[grease lightnin]

I gotcha...I just personally don't see this happening this year.

I guess we'll see in about 4-5 months who was right or wrong.

BTW: I'm long Dollar...so I'm all for the rate hike.

The glass is half full, my friend

[Russian Rocket]

The glass is half full, my friend

Na Zdorovie!

[TheMoneyShot]

Hillary will crash it

[eidolon]

Mid 2017 to end of 2017 is when it will begin to turn sour. Just a heads up.

[grease lightnin]

Na Zdorovie!

+255,000 jobs vs. +180,000 expected in july. Boom! Pump that well baby, God Bless America!!

[jjgold]

+255,000 jobs vs. +180,000 expected in july. Boom! Pump that well baby, God Bless America!!

$9 an hr chief

America is in big trouble

[rkelly110]

I said ONE rate hike before the end of the year. GS and JPM said in the article that they see a hike in Dec...

And usd/jpy could turn in a hurry. It is August

Aren't they talking about negative rates?

[Russian Rocket]

+255,000 jobs vs. +180,000 expected in july. Boom! Pump that well baby, God Bless America!!

Not a bad number...yet the Dollar/Yen basket only moved up 30 pips



It's a very solid report but the market has been here before with a strong report (last month) and that still wasn't enough for a hike.

[jjgold]

Plenty of jobs especially part time for $10 an hr

real jobs it is bad

[Sam Odom]

Plenty of jobs especially part time for $10 an hr

real jobs it is bad

Full Time Sports Bettor = Sky is the limit

[jjgold]

Sammy nobody wins

[Sam Odom]

JJ , Vegas slots did you in

you're an action junky

[Shafted69]

Not a good day or week for the Rethuglicans.

[grease lightnin]

Not a bad number...yet the Dollar/Yen basket only moved up 30 pips



It's a very solid report but the market has been here before with a strong report (last month) and that still wasn't enough for a hike.

I don't expect a hike until later in the year.

Where did you get that image?

[grease lightnin]

Aren't they talking about negative rates?

No, not here. That is in Europe and Japan

[Russian Rocket]

I don't expect a hike until later in the year.

I know - I'm just showing you how today's jobs' report has changed the probability of this hike.

Where did you get that image?

From one of the market analysis sources that I follow.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-05/good-news-good-news-now-jobs-beat-sparks-bond-bullion-beating

Also from ZeroHedge "It appears that seasonal adjustments were the culprit for today's blowout headline print which excluding the Arima X 13 contribution to the headline number, would have been notably weaker. As Mitsubishi UFJ strategist John Herrmann wrote in a note shortly after the report, the "jobs headline overstates" strength of payrolls. He adds that the unadjusted data show a “middling report” that’s “nowhere as strong as the headline" and adds that private payrolls unadjusted +85k in July vs seasonally adjusted +217k.
In Herrmann’s view, the government applied a “very benign seasonal adjustment factor upon private payrolls to transform a soft private payroll gain into a strong gain.”

[grease lightnin]

There are some smart guys at ZH, but they err in that they mix their political ideology with their investment advice. Years of predicting market crashes.... with no market crashes.

[Russian Rocket]

There are some smart guys at ZH, but they err in that they mix their political ideology with their investment advice. Years of predicting market crashes.... with no market crashes.

yeah you gotta cherry pick what you read and follow on their board

[grease lightnin]

Not a bad number...yet the Dollar/Yen basket only moved up 30 pips



It's a very solid report but the market has been here before with a strong report (last month) and that still wasn't enough for a hike.

First paragraph homeboyeee:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/wholesale-trade-inventories-for-june-2016-reported-by-census.html

[jjgold]

Most college grads are failures....protest, work at food places, ect

why ??

No jobs for the regular guy any longer in corporate world..so many foreigners that are smarter taking them