math guys - percent chance Golden State wins title next year??

[homie1975]

I'm too lazy to run all the numbers. My buddy thinks they are 80% to win based on being 4 to 5 odds now on vegas insider after the KD signing. I think that's off by a lot. That number would mean the field is at 20% combined chance and that cannot right.

Someone please run the numbers and list the top 10 teams chances by percent. If u wanna list all teams, even better. Thanks in advance

From vegas insider

GS = 4 to 5
Cavs = 4 to 1
Spurs = 15 to 1
Clippers 30 to 1
Celtics 40 to 1
Okc 50 to 1
Hawks 60 to 1
Miami 60 to 1
Toronto 60 to 1
Pacers grizzlies Knicks all 75 to 1

[TheMoneyShot]

Kind of sad when these teams are all spaced out like this.

One flaw of the NBA product.

[homie1975]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/

[unusialsusp5]

Kind of sad when these teams are all spaced out like this.

One flaw of the NBA product.

a league with many flaws. overpaid players. overpriced tickets. meaningless regular season. too many games. difficult to officiate. way too many teams. too easy to make a 3 pt shot. fans obsessed with winning a championship. players obsessed with their contracts first and foremost. no chance for about 26 teams to win (not that they even care)

[LT Profits]

No-Vig Odds based on VI odds is Golden State 51.31%

[The Kraken]

50% is incredibly high for one team

I like the Spurs or Clippers much better

[homie1975]

LT can u give us the rest of the top 10??

[LT Profits]

My buddy thinks they are 80% to win based on being 4 to 5 odds now on vegas insider

That would be vigged odds of 55.56% (5/9)

[TheMoneyShot]

There's always going to be a team that gels better late in the year.

And if one Golden State all star goes down.... they won't have a chance.

Curry's ankles are fragile.

[LT Profits]

LT can u give us the rest of the top 10??

GST 51.31%
Cle 18.47%
SA 5.77%
Clips 2.98%
Bos 2.25%
OKC 1.81%
Atl 1.51%
Mia 1.51%
Tor 1.51%
Ind 1.22%
Mem 1.22%
NY 1.22%

[homie1975]

Thanks LT. I see how u came up w the vigged numbers but the non vigged percentage equation is puzzling

[samgurt]

0%

KD signing makes their team worse defensively. Doesn't do much for their team offensively that curry and Thompson can't do already. No more bogut or Barnes. The warriors are worse off this coming year. Their D won't be able to stop a nosebleed. Now there's rumors of them going after Ray Allen, which again, does nothing for their team.

Cavs win again, whether wade joins them or not this year.

[LT Profits]

Thanks LT. I see how u came up w the vigged numbers but the non vigged percentage equation is puzzling

When you add up all the decimal odds, you get 1.0828, meaning the vig is 8.28%. So no-vig for each team is vigged odds/1.0828.

[adila1401]

50% since they will be in the finals anyone's ballgame there..Value with CLE, BOS IMO...

[jjgold]

too much pressure actually to win

It could hurt them

[BigDofBA]

GSW won 73 games and people thought they were a lock last season.

OKC slapped them around and blew them out by 20+ a few times and then the Cavs slapped them around and blew them out a few times.

GSW went 7-7 their final 14 when they finally played real teams and several times they were blown out.

The playoffs is different. The Clippers and Spurs could easily challenge them and the Cavs could add Wade.

I'm not sure what Durant adds to the Warriors that they didn't already have. Their depth has taken a hit.

They should be the favorite but they're not going to win 75 games and blow everyone away.