Gallarado vs Maholm

[Chi_archie]

two big filter alerts for me here.


Gallarado has over 220 pitches in last two starts and 325 for his last 3.... both bad signs for young pitchers. fading high pitch counts on certain pitchers over seasons, 1 game and 3 game cumalative's are where the sharp $ is.


Also facing the same team in back to back starts, this time at THEIR home... against another good young lefty...


take the PLUS money

[diogee]

Nice...I don't look at previous pitch count nearly enough.

[ijustwant2bpaid]

me neither and by your not enough, I mean never, thanks Archie

[JIMMYG13]

Nice info!!! Thanks

[reno cool]

I'll be betting Pit. I'm on a 1-13 run on sides however.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I really don't think pitch count is predictive for Gallardo. He has gone deep into games because he has wicked stuff. You could have used the same rationale for Lincecum all year last year. I really don't think you would have profited. In those 325 pitches, he's allowed 2 earned runs off of one pitch to Carlos Lee. That said, I'm finding good value on the Brewers first five.

[nobshine]

Crew has beat Pit about 15 in a row home and away.

[VegasDave]

I was already looking at this one Arch... great info

[Chi_archie]

in Gallardo's first season in 2007 the brew crew was 1-5 in Gallardo's next start after he pitched over 100 pitches. he was 9-5 that year with a 3.67 ERA

[Chi_archie]

I really don't think pitch count is predictive for Gallardo. He has gone deep into games because he has wicked stuff. You could have used the same rationale for Lincecum all year last year. I really don't think you would have profited. In those 325 pitches, he's allowed 2 earned runs off of one pitch to Carlos Lee. That said, I'm finding good value on the Brewers first five.

If you faded the Giants on a Lincecum start following a start where he went over 110 pitches you would have gone 7-8 and made money on all the heavy dog.

different pitchers have different make ups/tolerances for high pitch counts, but generally you are getting a lot more value when fading a pitcher with a high pitch count over 3 games or after one obscene high pitch count in one game.

guys like Zambrano and Sabathia with their big frames can do a little better with high pitch counts, guys that throw alot of two seamers and sinking stuff, do a little better with more work somtimes too..

ex: Ian snell pitched 131 pitches I believe, during his last start. His next game will not be a good one... fade pitchers their next start after an obscenely high pitch count the previous start like this.

Dusty Baker makes me a lot of $ this way

fade a young (under 25 year old pitcher) the entire next year if he pitches 20% more innings in one year then he has ever pitched in one year.

[onthewhat]

good info archie

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you faded the Giants on a Lincecum start following a start where he went over 110 pitches you would have gone 7-8 and made money on all the heavy dog.

different pitchers have different make ups/tolerances for high pitch counts, but generally you are getting a lot more value when fading a pitcher with a high pitch count over 3 games or after one obscene high pitch count in one game.

guys like Zambrano and Sabathia with their big frames can do a little better with high pitch counts, guys that throw alot of two seamers and sinking stuff, do a little better with more work somtimes too..

ex: Ian snell pitched 131 pitches I believe, during his last start. His next game will not be a good one... fade pitchers their next start after an obscenely high pitch count the previous start like this.

Dusty Baker makes me a lot of $ this way

fade a young (under 25 year old pitcher) the entire next year if he pitches 20% more innings in one year then he has ever pitched in one year.

Lincecum wasn't a heavy favorite much of the year. So you might have lost money. I'd have to know the units won/lost. And how much research have you done on this? What is your correlation coefficient? It's an interesting theory. Not sure if I'm sold. I'll have to look into it further.

[smitch124]

Some other interesting things to consider, if you wanna to add a few layers to this angle:

1. How many "stress" pitches did said pitcher throw. Either out of the stretch or with runners in scoring position.

2. How many pitches over 20 did he throw in any one inning.

How do either of these factors affect his next start?

[Madetowin]

So taking the OVER !!!?!??!?

[hoop guru]

Gallardo has given up 1 run in the last 18 innings pitching against the pirates. The pirates hit a solo homerun and that was it. The pirates did not have many baserunners in those 3 starts by Gallardo. Moholn pitched decent in April 2008 and April 2009. In May 2008, Mahom struggled. In his starts against the brewers, Maholm walked a lot of brewer hitters. Maholn walked 5 batters in his last start against the brewers. The brewers did not have a good series offensively against the diamondbacks as they scored a total of 7 runs in that series. I also like the over in this game and the brewers team total over 4. The brewers are going to rough Maholn early in this game. the brewers may score 8 runs by themselves.

[nobshine]

Be careful on that over. Braun out? Weeks in 3 hole has been hitting along with Cameron. They are not scoring many runs and with Yovanni on the mound I would not be surprised with a 3-1, 4-2 Crew win.

[Brock Landers]

This game is a PASS, much better angles on the board tonight

[Wilforth]

Under 4 FF is the play!

[Chi_archie]

I Like the over myself too, since both these teams saw the opposing pitchers a few days ago.

by the way there is some potential for a brawl in this game...

[Chi_archie]

Hall out of the game


1-1 two ducks on the pound for the pirates....

Gallarado not hitting his spots, wild, and his arm slot/release point is all over the place.... not repeating his motion....


just where we wanted him..

[Chi_archie]

4 pitch walk of the pitcher to load the bases...

24 pitches in the 2nd inning.... get the bullpen up don't ruin this young kids arm here

[BeatTheJerk]

Chi Archie why are you so sharp on most of your assessments , but on the other hand such a small time bettor .................... or have things changed since the last time we disgusted this ? (you could make a killing bro if you had the BR) "real talk"

[Chi_archie]

they actually did get the bullpen up there.... but he worked out of the jam...


I lie about my bet sizes BTJ....

[laxdjock]

I'm on the Over.....too bad PITT couldn't cash in last inning.

[Dexter]

fade a young (under 25 year old pitcher) the entire next year if he pitches 20% more innings in one year then he has ever pitched in one year.

the verducci effect

another good one i like to do is play the under when both pitchers are coming off 115+ performances

[Dexter]

Lincecum wasn't a heavy favorite much of the year. So you might have lost money. I'd have to know the units won/lost. And how much research have you done on this? What is your correlation coefficient? It's an interesting theory. Not sure if I'm sold. I'll have to look into it further.

yeah, he was a pretty decent sized favorite most games. esp at the end of the year when he was chasing the cy...

fading him at 7-8 would have no doubt netted a nice return

[ebbearsfb1]

i doubt this game would go over, both pitchers are good, and both teams bats have been junk lately

[ebbearsfb1]

i knew i should of went with my gut and took the pirates... shit

[Chi_archie]

time to get some insurance runs buccos

[Chi_archie]

101 pitches and counting....

[Dexter]

chi archie - where do you look for pitch counts? i have to dig into various sites (non gambling) to get the info. pain in the ass...

[laxdjock]

Come on SF, CIN, CWS, and PIT!

[BeatTheJerk]

wtf happpen ?

[MonkeyF0cker]

yeah, he was a pretty decent sized favorite most games. esp at the end of the year when he was chasing the cy...

fading him at 7-8 would have no doubt netted a nice return

It depends at what point in the season those losses came. He wasn't a heavy favorite until the second half of the season and even then, he was rarely above -150.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Weather seemed to play a bigger part in this one than anything. It didn't look like anyone really wanted to be playing this game.