Wimbledon Thread

[cryptocap]

I have Federer and Murray on a future...I can see them both making the final...If Cilic mounts a strong game he will go to the final as well!

[FoxMulder]

I took Kerber to win the first set and the match and immediately regretted it. This woman is clearly stupid

[w@lt]

WTTFFF. Have Shvedova +1.5 sets. Up 5-2 in first set tiebreak, proceeds to lose the next 5 fukking points. FUK YOU.

[jjgold]

Looks like only women today?

[FoxMulder]

Shvedova please win a set...

[w@lt]

There is no reason Shvedova should be losing this. Fukking horrible

[lonegambler23]

WTTFFF. Have Shvedova +1.5 sets. Up 5-2 in first set tiebreak, proceeds to lose the next 5 fukking points. FUK YOU.

its womens tennis. being up 3 points in a game is accumlative to one point

[FoxMulder]

Moron finally wins..That match could have been easily wrapped up 6-3 6-3.

Shvedova owes me 250 bucks since she penetrated up my Kerber to win / Shvedova +1.5 parlay

[gaebiskon]

halep vs kerber match was unbearable to watch
in the end lesser idiot prevailed

[goduke]

Does vesnina have a shot in her match coming up?

[jjgold]

I doubt it
too slow

Kerber has shot again to win another major..strange as she gets older too

[goduke]

I doubt it
too slow

Kerber has shot again to win another major..strange as she gets older too

Looks fast enough so far

[jtoler]

Does vesnina have a shot in her match coming up?

Making good coin off of her.

[jjgold]

Can you imagine if it's a Williams vs Williams final probably would be one of the greatest sports feats of all times based on their age and longevity

[floridagolfer]

As I was watching on Monday, I noticed something that is driving me crazy and I'm looking for an explanation.

My wife was rooting for Serena, the No. 1 seed, to meet Venus, the 8 seed, in the final, and I kept telling her that in a match-play bracket, 1 can't play 8 in the final. We all know that in a match-play bracket, provided the top-seeded teams win and advance, the quarterfinals would be 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 against 6 and 4 against 5 — just like it's supposed to be in the NCAA Championship. Much to my shock, I see the Wimbledon draw on the TV screen and this isn't how they progress.

Can someone give me an explanation for how Wimbledon places their seeded players in a bracket . . . other than saying this is just another example of screwed-up Brits?

I've Googled this to death and can't find an answer.

[terpkeg]

As I was watching on Monday, I noticed something that is driving me crazy and I'm looking for an explanation.

My wife was rooting for Serena, the No. 1 seed, to meet Venus, the 8 seed, in the final, and I kept telling her that in a match-play bracket, 1 can't play 8 in the final. We all know that in a match-play bracket, provided the top-seeded teams win and advance, the quarterfinals would be 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 against 6 and 4 against 5 — just like it's supposed to be in the NCAA Championship. Much to my shock, I see the Wimbledon draw on the TV screen and this isn't how they progress.

Can someone give me an explanation for how Wimbledon places their seeded players in a bracket . . . other than saying this is just another example of screwed-up Brits?

I've Googled this to death and can't find an answer.

To avoid players trying to manipulate rankings in weeks leading into tournaments to avoid match ups draw makes 5-8 random, 9-12 random, 13-16 etc. So top four seeds in any quarter are one each from above four groups.

[jjgold]

Does anyone think there's an upset tomorrow?

[Lightning]

Does anyone think there's an upset tomorrow?

I'd be very surprised. Can see all of them being straight forward affairs if the favourites all turn up. Pouille in with a chance if he can keep up the level of play. Berdych has held his nerve beautifully when he's needed to, but also looked shaky when it looks like he should run away with the game.

[jjgold]

I think Fed will lose at least one set tomorrow, Murray should win easy

[Conqueror]

Does anyone think there's an upset tomorrow?

Cilic and Pouille can pull it.

[jtoler]

Cilic and Pouille can pull it.

Yes possible, maybe Cilic in 4 or 5 and Pouile in 4. Parlayed a couple bucks book wont let me parlay exact set score or if hit it'd kill. Thinking about doing a single bet with Pouille but need to watch more film to see how he can hurt Berdy tomorrow.

[Lightning]

I don't know how many of you pop over to my thread to read my plays, but I've done a fair bit of analysis for tonight so I thought I'd chuck it in here as well. Enjoy.

MENS

- Raonic vs. Querrey UNDER 43.5 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

For my analysis today I've used statistics. A lot of people often don't bother, or use statistics that don't really matter. To be fair to them, it's a complicated question. But nonetheless, some matter more than most. For me, the SINGLE most important stats are % break points won and % break points saved. All well and good to be nailing winners and aces and hitting low unforced errors, but matches are decided on pivotal points. I think it's fair to say that matches are decided on break points - one way or another. Someone like Djokovic is number one because he has incredible nerve on break points. He converts 44% of the break point chances he gets. That's top echelon. Similarly, lower ranked players are lower ranked players because they often do not play their best tennis on break points.

What I've done is compared break point % (saved and converted) and compared it against the player's career average. I've then done a bit of analysis to find the number of times I expect the player to break (or be broken, depending on the way you look at it) in their quarter-final match.

People have been raving about Querrey all tournament, but I've consistently said he's still not playing amazing well. He got a large slice of luck in that Djokovic was off his game and capitalised. The stats back me up. He's won 34% of bp, while his career average is 32%. He's saved 69% of bp, while his career average is 69%.

Raonic, on the other hand, is slightly different. He's won 36%, compared to 37% in his career. He has, however, saved 81%, compared to a 70% career average on grass. It gets even better. If you take away the two first sets in his match against Goffin (where he was playing some absolutely grouse tennis - not his usual level at all), he has saved 100% of break points. 100%. Nobody has broken him.

Querrey is nowhere near as good as Goffin, so I don't think it's a stretch to say Raonic will be more likely to operate at the 100%. Looking at chances generated, Querrey had to face 32 break points, compared to Raonic with 16 (or 8 if you take out the first two vs. Goffin). AFter doing a few simple sums, Querrey will get broken around 2.9 times in the match. Raonic, depending on which set of data you use, will get broken 1.36 times, or 0.68 times. For me, it's a simple answer. Raonic is clearly playing the better tennis at pressure moments, and should end Sam's run with little fuss.

- Berdych vs. Pouille - OVER 36.5 games (SPORTSBET) - $1.83 - TWO STAKES

If you want a classic case where a player has overperformed, look no further than Lucas Pouille. I'll start with Tomas Berdych though. He's won 47% of break points in the tournament, compared to a CA of 35%. This shows he's taking the chances when presented. His bp saved numbers are slightly down, but not enough to suggest anything is drastically wrong.

A few of my friends have been asking why Pouille has been playing so well. Well, here's your answer: During his career on grass, Pouille has won 32% of the bp he earned. In this tournament, he's won 67%. Read that again. 67%. That's an increase of 35%!!!! Adding to that, his career average of bp saved is 56%. He's saved 75% in this tournament. Before this tourney, he hadn't won a match on grass. He's now in the quarters. Correlation does not imply causation, but that is HUGE evidence that Pouille has been playing at a phenomenal level on break points, and that level is why he's lining up against Tomas Berdych for a place in the semis.

I've done the sums, and Pouille should break Berdych around 4.36 times in the match. Berdych should break Pouille around 4.7 times. Now, I expect Berdych to ultimately win, BUT Pouille has been playing at such a level that it would surprise me if he does not win a set.

- Federer vs. Cilic - UNDER 39 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

"Cilic has been playing well" - everyone. Has he, though? Before I start, I have to say that I omitted the data from his match against Nishikori because it's not reliable. In the matches before, he won 25% of the bp he earned, compared to a CA of 37%. That's correct, he's actually down 12% against players that he really should be beating easily. He's winning, but the numbers aren't matching up. To his credit, he's also up 12% on the bp saved, with 80% compared to a CA of 68%.

Federer has allowed only six break points in four games. That's an average of only 1.5 break points in every match. Incredible. The numbers say it's more likely for Federer to not be broken than the alternative. Cilic should only break 0.38 times in the match - a very low number (lower even than Raonic). As a corollary, it shows that you don't need a booming serve to be effective on serve. Federer should win in three sets, but I do expect a tiebreak somewhere, because Cilic has been serving very well.

- Murray vs. Tsonga - First set OVER 10.5 games - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Murray 3-0 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES

Again, after omitting the game against Gasquet, Tsonga is playing at his normal, career level. Murray, on the other hand, is up. 47% break points converted, compared to 41%, and a 4% rise on bp saved. I don't think Murray will be broken, or if he does, not more than once. Interestingly though, in all six of their past six games, the number of games in the first set has been over 10. I'll ride with the trend on that little piece of data.

Cheers!

[Conqueror]

Thanks Lighting!

[Lightning]

No worries mate. Happy to help some fellow punters (hopefully haha)

[floridagolfer]

Thanks for the explanation. I don't think it makes perfect sense, but at least I understand it.

Is this just a Wimbledon thing or is this standard operating procedure in all of tennis?

[jjgold]

I don't know how many of you pop over to my thread to read my plays, but I've done a fair bit of analysis for tonight so I thought I'd chuck it in here as well. Enjoy.

MENS

- Raonic vs. Querrey UNDER 43.5 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

For my analysis today I've used statistics. A lot of people often don't bother, or use statistics that don't really matter. To be fair to them, it's a complicated question. But nonetheless, some matter more than most. For me, the SINGLE most important stats are % break points won and % break points saved. All well and good to be nailing winners and aces and hitting low unforced errors, but matches are decided on pivotal points. I think it's fair to say that matches are decided on break points - one way or another. Someone like Djokovic is number one because he has incredible nerve on break points. He converts 44% of the break point chances he gets. That's top echelon. Similarly, lower ranked players are lower ranked players because they often do not play their best tennis on break points.

What I've done is compared break point % (saved and converted) and compared it against the player's career average. I've then done a bit of analysis to find the number of times I expect the player to break (or be broken, depending on the way you look at it) in their quarter-final match.

People have been raving about Querrey all tournament, but I've consistently said he's still not playing amazing well. He got a large slice of luck in that Djokovic was off his game and capitalised. The stats back me up. He's won 34% of bp, while his career average is 32%. He's saved 69% of bp, while his career average is 69%.

Raonic, on the other hand, is slightly different. He's won 36%, compared to 37% in his career. He has, however, saved 81%, compared to a 70% career average on grass. It gets even better. If you take away the two first sets in his match against Goffin (where he was playing some absolutely grouse tennis - not his usual level at all), he has saved 100% of break points. 100%. Nobody has broken him.

Querrey is nowhere near as good as Goffin, so I don't think it's a stretch to say Raonic will be more likely to operate at the 100%. Looking at chances generated, Querrey had to face 32 break points, compared to Raonic with 16 (or 8 if you take out the first two vs. Goffin). AFter doing a few simple sums, Querrey will get broken around 2.9 times in the match. Raonic, depending on which set of data you use, will get broken 1.36 times, or 0.68 times. For me, it's a simple answer. Raonic is clearly playing the better tennis at pressure moments, and should end Sam's run with little fuss.

- Berdych vs. Pouille - OVER 36.5 games (SPORTSBET) - $1.83 - TWO STAKES

If you want a classic case where a player has overperformed, look no further than Lucas Pouille. I'll start with Tomas Berdych though. He's won 47% of break points in the tournament, compared to a CA of 35%. This shows he's taking the chances when presented. His bp saved numbers are slightly down, but not enough to suggest anything is drastically wrong.

A few of my friends have been asking why Pouille has been playing so well. Well, here's your answer: During his career on grass, Pouille has won 32% of the bp he earned. In this tournament, he's won 67%. Read that again. 67%. That's an increase of 35%!!!! Adding to that, his career average of bp saved is 56%. He's saved 75% in this tournament. Before this tourney, he hadn't won a match on grass. He's now in the quarters. Correlation does not imply causation, but that is HUGE evidence that Pouille has been playing at a phenomenal level on break points, and that level is why he's lining up against Tomas Berdych for a place in the semis.

I've done the sums, and Pouille should break Berdych around 4.36 times in the match. Berdych should break Pouille around 4.7 times. Now, I expect Berdych to ultimately win, BUT Pouille has been playing at such a level that it would surprise me if he does not win a set.

- Federer vs. Cilic - UNDER 39 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

"Cilic has been playing well" - everyone. Has he, though? Before I start, I have to say that I omitted the data from his match against Nishikori because it's not reliable. In the matches before, he won 25% of the bp he earned, compared to a CA of 37%. That's correct, he's actually down 12% against players that he really should be beating easily. He's winning, but the numbers aren't matching up. To his credit, he's also up 12% on the bp saved, with 80% compared to a CA of 68%.

Federer has allowed only six break points in four games. That's an average of only 1.5 break points in every match. Incredible. The numbers say it's more likely for Federer to not be broken than the alternative. Cilic should only break 0.38 times in the match - a very low number (lower even than Raonic). As a corollary, it shows that you don't need a booming serve to be effective on serve. Federer should win in three sets, but I do expect a tiebreak somewhere, because Cilic has been serving very well.

- Murray vs. Tsonga - First set OVER 10.5 games - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Murray 3-0 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES

Again, after omitting the game against Gasquet, Tsonga is playing at his normal, career level. Murray, on the other hand, is up. 47% break points converted, compared to 41%, and a 4% rise on bp saved. I don't think Murray will be broken, or if he does, not more than once. Interestingly though, in all six of their past six games, the number of games in the first set has been over 10. I'll ride with the trend on that little piece of data.

Cheers!

excellent work guy

[Lightning]

Not entirely sure why I bother trying. Completely pathetic.

[Lightning]

Should just fade myself.

[ACoochy]

Not entirely sure why I bother trying. Completely pathetic.

Thats gambling for you bro and to be honest those write-ups are front page worthy...

For what it's worth alot of us would appreciate hearing your future insights...

[jtoler]

My brother always told me the French are so lazy and never win any wars, Benny and Vasselin up 2 sets to love now all tied, pathetic.

[Lightning]

Thats gambling for you bro and to be honest those write-ups are front page worthy...

For what it's worth alot of us would appreciate hearing your future insights...

Thanks mate. The kind words are appreciated. I love testing myself against the sport - a sort of game - so I'll keep on keeping on. Just demoralising when nothing goes to plan. Raonic up 2-0, gets broken. Berdych up 2-0, guarantee he won't get broken. Frustrating but c'est la vie

[jtoler]

Yes, finally Benny/Vass wins, up a break in 5th set they get broken back, somehow managed to break back later.

[jjgold]

tsonga not quitting

[QuangX]

I'm worried.... have a lot ending with murray

[maletaja]

I thought Tsonga is sushi...