Game 3 - GSW @ CAVS - UNDER/OVER 206.5 - WHY?

BIGDAY · 06-06-16, 08:26 AM

Books are simply giving gifts. I mean GS -6 for game 1&2??? Too easy.

arie1985 · 06-06-16, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Books are simply giving gifts. I mean GS -6 for game 1&2??? Too easy.

Okay, but how is that related to this over/under thread?

sweethook · 06-06-16, 09:03 AM

cavs get a 100

arie1985 · 06-06-16, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by sweethook

cavs get a 100

If you think Cavs score around 100 points, then if GS loses then it goes under 200 ... !
And if GS wins then it probably goes over the line of 206.5 ...

Still,
I don't seem to understand it....

First game we had 198.5 at half time, went under (1H under, 2H under)....
Second game we had 194.5 at half time, went under (1H under, 2H under)....

It could still go 1H over and 2H under or vice versa ...

There are many more reasons to back the "UNDER" here but also after having too many under games we should expect some change ... so it's very difficult to understand why the line makers reduce the total line by 1-2 points only ...

Are they expecting better performance from the Cavs?

Some feeling I think if Love doesn't play then the line would go even lower and that's actually a good spot for "Over" backers, because without Love there is less defense, and less defense means more scoring.

But that's just a thought ... I honestly don't know how this will develop 2 days from now.

iloseagain · 06-06-16, 12:27 PM

i think over might be the play in this one..

GS OKC series was 2 low scoring in GS, then G3 moved to OKC and it went WAYYYY over the total

arie1985 · 06-06-16, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by iloseagain

i think over might be the play in this one..

GS OKC series was 2 low scoring in GS, then G3 moved to OKC and it went WAYYYY over the total

Thinking likewise ...
But it could always be Game 3 that goes under and Game 4 that goes over - or we can have an "under train" all the way as well ... I think the fact it's harder to bet the over now makes it more attractive bet, so I tend to agree with you .... last night taking GS minus the points was the harder bet to place, psychologically speaking ... and it seems like the only winning bets are the ones that are very hard to take psychologically (i.e. implying Cavs win game 3 then as well?)

iloseagain · 06-06-16, 12:44 PM

yea i wouldnt be surprised if cavs won game 3, but i think it would come down to a close game, and i think GS has a HUGE advantage in close games. Lebron just is not a closer and Cavs do not have a closer like GS does. GS has a bunch of guys who are not afraid to shoot at the end of games and Curry is one of the best at shooting those clutch shots. Unless Cavs blow them out, i think GS would win the majority of close games between these 2 teams.

arie1985 · 06-06-16, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by iloseagain

yea i wouldnt be surprised if cavs won game 3, but i think it would come down to a close game, and i think GS has a HUGE advantage in close games. Lebron just is not a closer and Cavs do not have a closer like GS does. GS has a bunch of guys who are not afraid to shoot at the end of games and Curry is one of the best at shooting those clutch shots. Unless Cavs blow them out, i think GS would win the majority of close games between these 2 teams.

OKC stole a game from GS in the Oracle and won by 6 points, that was game 1 ...
I don't believe the NBA operates based on athleticism, if it was then series should have ended 4-0 ages ago...

You should note how the oddsmakers run the lines in game ... the NBA has become a completely 100% trading platform, it has no logic, or actually it has logic ... of its own ... and only those who manage to read that logic are the ones making money with it.

iloseagain · 06-06-16, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

OKC stole a game from GS in the Oracle and won by 6 points, that was game 1 ...
I don't believe the NBA operates based on athleticism, if it was then series should have ended 4-0 ages ago...

You should note how the oddsmakers run the lines in game ... the NBA has become a completely 100% trading platform, it has no logic, or actually it has logic ... of its own ... and only those who manage to read that logic are the ones making money with it.

i honestly have no clue what this means in relation to what i said

arie1985 · 06-06-16, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by iloseagain

i honestly have no clue what this means in relation to what i said

It just means Game 1 was tight and OKC won it, despite GS playing at home and having many players as you described who can win a game.

It's okay though .... I don't think GS is heading to 6 or 7 games with these series, and just like you mentioned the over looks better here, I tend to agree.

iloseagain · 06-06-16, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

It just means Game 1 was tight and OKC won it, despite GS playing at home and having many players as you described who can win a game.

It's okay though .... I don't think GS is heading to 6 or 7 games with these series, and just like you mentioned the over looks better here, I tend to agree.

i was talking about the GS/Cle series though.. Not the OKC series. Im saying in THIS series, GS has many more closers than Cle. Hence why these games seem to be relatively close for a decent part of the game, and then GS blows it open. We havent really seen a close finish yet, but maybe in G3 we will see what happens if Cle is up or down 1-3 pts late. I think GS will end up winning in most of these situations AGAINST cleveland.

Menses · 06-06-16, 10:42 PM

Absolutely refuse to play Totals in the NBA...and haven't in 10 years...admire anyone who has the moxy to do so....somethings off with the number...

arie1985 · 06-06-16, 10:58 PM

I was thinking about it more and more and I cannot see how the Cavs can even get to score 100 in Game 3.

Let's say LeBron is playing the game of his life (and that's a big IF) and he scores 45 points, which again is extremely big IF ... and say Irving plays the game of his life and scores 25 points... again ... that's a big IF .... 45 + 25 = 70 points

That's the only scenario where the Cavs can even reach 100 points, because then if Love is out you got only Thompson (10 points?) and Frye, JR Smith and Richardson who can help the Cavs to score 100 points or more...

But that requires LeBron and Irving to score 70 point altogether ... extremely unlikely !!

A more feasible scenario is:

LeBron = 30 points
Irving = 20 points
Thompson = 15 points
Frye = 10 points
Richardson = 15 points
JR Smith = 20 points (scoring some 3's)

This is the only way the Cavs score 110 points, and only then the OVER can hit ....

Seems much more plausible for the UNDER to hit again, don't you think??

jjgold · 06-06-16, 11:41 PM

I would buck the trend in this game

Cleveland due to shoot well

greypimps · 06-07-16, 02:26 AM

Why under?? Because cleveland likes to play slow. I also think this game will go under because cavs cant play run n gun with gsw.. that would be suicidal because gsw got too many shooters... i see cavs takes it nice n slow but will lose tbis game as well... if tbey do win it will be by a small margin.

arie1985 · 06-07-16, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

I would buck the trend in this game

Cleveland due to shoot well

Which means you would go over or under?

redbull · 06-08-16, 08:27 AM

lockdown game
hit under
ugly perform jr smit and the king vs iggy , love clown

JE · 06-08-16, 01:36 PM

Over.
Why? Warriors win 109-101
109+101=210 which is greater than 206.5.

JayDr3am · 06-08-16, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by redbull

lockdown game
hit under
ugly perform jr smit and the king vs iggy , love clown

love is out

chargers4222 · 06-08-16, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by JE

Over.
Why? Warriors win 109-101
109+101=210 which is greater than 206.5.

"I've been a Warriors fan for 18 months so the Warriors will win"

JE · 06-08-16, 04:45 PM

Been a warriors fan since they drafted Joe Smith from Maryland back in 95 ... Been through all the misery now they are on top !

vegaschulo · 06-08-16, 05:07 PM

Warriors can easily score 130 points on them..warriors is the pick here.