Who is going all in on Jake Arrieta today?

[funnyb25]

1. Dexter Fowler (S) CF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Jorge Soler (R) LF
5. Javier Baez (R) 2B
6. Addison Russell (R) SS
7. Matt Szczur (R) RF
8. David Ross (R) C
9. Jake Arrieta (R) P

Yikes...

[funnyb25]

Real Madrid and Manchester United were -400 today and won. But they were playing the bottom teams in their leagues. Are Rockies the worst team in the NL? I don't think so. Arrieta gave up 3 Runs last game. Can the Cubs score 4? Cubs don't seam patient at the plate. Fowler, Hayward and Bryant are into a horrific form. They swing at everything mostly on pitches off the plate. Cubs can win today but this is not an ALL IN game.

If you want an ALL IN game for these odds bet the Raptors. They will beat the Pacers and you don't have to sweat 9 innings.

Big Problem...

[iloseagain]

Big Problem...

lol awful pick. raps havent won a game 1 in the playoffs ever

[jjgold]

I know a guy that has 4000 on Jake ML


Sucker

[d2bets]

I know a guy that has 4000 on Jake ML


Sucker Winner

Fixed it.

[Bigdave117]

But you have to remember that you are cutting your expected winning percentage by at least 25%. If we conservatively use 25% exactly, Pinny line right now is -319/+287 for an implied win% of 74.6% on ML. So .746 * .75 = 56.0%, which is fair odds of -127. So -130 is -EV and actual % is really a bit worse because 25% is low end.

That's for an avg team. An explosive offense like cubs will win 85-90% of their games by 2+ runs

[Bigdave117]

I think Arrieta has a big regression this year, but I don't think it hits until he racks up about 10 starts

but it already appears that he is not as sharp as last year. Still very very good though

Big regression? He's at 3-0 with a 1.23 era and 0.77 whip


He will win 26 games this year with this explosive cubs offense and dominant pen

[jjgold]

good call men

[d2bets]

I think Arrieta has a big regression this year, but I don't think it hits until he racks up about 10 starts

but it already appears that he is not as sharp as last year. Still very very good though

lol what the hell are you talking about? He is way better now than he was early last year. Hard as it is to imagine, he might have an even better season than last year, although they'll likely make sure he pitches fewer innings and maybe couple fewer games, out of an abundance of caution in planning for deep October baseball. I like his chances for another Cy Young.

[Bigdave117]

lol what the hell are you talking about? He is way better now than he was early last year. Hard as it is to imagine, he might have an even better season than last year, although they'll likely make sure he pitches fewer innings and maybe couple fewer games, out of an abundance of caution in planning for deep October baseball. I like his chances for another Cy Young.

I think he'll win the Cy young and actually win it pretty easily


kershaw or somebody else may be pretty close/beat him slightly in ERA but he's going to win 24-26 games. Voters are not going to overlook a 25 win season

[Chi_archie]

lol what the hell are you talking about? He is way better now than he was early last year. Hard as it is to imagine, he might have an even better season than last year, although they'll likely make sure he pitches fewer innings and maybe couple fewer games, out of an abundance of caution in planning for deep October baseball. I like his chances for another Cy Young.

insane jump in total innings thrown last year. and it caught up to him when it mattered most

he'll get the dreaded dead arm at some point, if not a big injury

[Bigdave117]

insane jump in total innings thrown last year. and it caught up to him when it mattered most

he'll get the dreaded dead arm at some point, if not a big injury

he threw 156 innings in 2014
229 innings last year
I don't think he'll throw more than 210-215 innings this year


one thing to keep in mind, yes he does throw a lot of innings, but he's very efficient with his pitches and doesn't give up a lot of baserunners. I'll take 220 low stress innings vs 200 innings where he's giving up baserunners and constantly having to pitch out of big jams. High stress, high pitch innings are horrible for pitchers

[d2bets]

insane jump in total innings thrown last year. and it caught up to him when it mattered most

he'll get the dreaded dead arm at some point, if not a big injury

Dude you've been begging this forever. Arrieta is a different cat. They're going to try to limit his innings, but it is tough when he goes well so effortlessly. Not just innings, but he made 33 reg season starts last season. Cubs should engineer that down to 30 or 31. Win the division to avoid the wild card game. He'll be fine. Could he go through a rough stretch at some point? Sure, he's still human. A human that's the best pitcher in baseball. Nobody outworks or outsmarts this guy. He's a freak. If he gets to FA, he's going to get 35+ mil per season.

[Bigdave117]

Dude you've been begging this forever. Arrieta is a different cat. They're going to try to limit his innings, but it is tough when he goes well so effortlessly. Not just innings, but he made 33 reg season starts last season. Cubs should engineer that down to 30 or 31. Win the division to avoid the wild card game. He'll be fine. Could he go through a rough stretch at some point? Sure, he's still human. A human that's the best pitcher in baseball. Nobody outworks or outsmarts this guy. He's a freak. If he gets to FA, he's going to get 35+ mil per season.

I agree, he's throwing around 89-100 pitches this year and still getting to 7-8 innings. Incredibly efficiency.

[jjgold]

Dave you're right on this one

[Bigdave117]

Dave you're right on this one

People can sit there and scream "square" all they want. If you're not making money off Jake Arrieta, you're not doing it right


He's been incredibly profitable now for last 2 seasons

[funnyb25]

I agree, he's throwing around 89-100 pitches this year and still getting to 7-8 innings. Incredibly efficiency.

incredible efficiency, or incredibly efficient

[habitualwinning]

People can sit there and scream "square" all they want. If you're not making money off Jake Arrieta, you're not doing it right


He's been incredibly profitable now for last 2 seasons

You got the numbers handy? I'd like to see how many units he's up last 2 seasons combined and the -1.5 RL and -2.5 RL numbers when he pitches.