Will NFL over and unders be effected by new rule NFL announced today.

lilpete · 03-23-16, 01:38 PM

they should have moved the kickoff back 5 yards like it used to be NFL kickers drill the ball out of the endzone half the time, not as many kick returns as there used to be

newguy · 03-23-16, 02:06 PM

Obviously affects it. Odds of scoring from 25 a few percentage points higher than from 20. I am sure there is better data out there but a quick google showed data for 2000-2010 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...00&output=html) and 2013 (http://www.footballsavages.com/the-i...djusted-stats/) - both show scoring goes up as you get closer.

This is obvious to anyone but always good to have stats to support it. I also think it could lead to kickers trying to be cuter with the kicks which could affect as well.

I have no relation to either of sites referenced and didn't spend any time at all verifying data - but all seemed to be about what you would expect.

tshafer117 · 03-23-16, 02:10 PM

Interesting

Originally posted by newguy

Obviously affects it. Odds of scoring from 25 a few percentage points higher than from 20. I am sure there is better data out there but a quick google showed data for 2000-2010 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...00&output=html) and 2013 (http://www.footballsavages.com/the-i...djusted-stats/) - both show scoring goes up as you get closer.

This is obvious to anyone but always good to have stats to support it. I also think it could lead to kickers trying to be cuter with the kicks which could affect as well.

I have no relation to either of sites referenced and didn't spend any time at all verifying data - but all seemed to be about what you would expect.

Covy · 03-23-16, 02:14 PM

Teams will try to counter that by having their kickers kick the ball higher and trying to land it inside the 5 to force a return

will actually create more returns I think

Foxx · 03-23-16, 02:16 PM

I think average total will increase by 2.5 next season.

Seaweed · 03-23-16, 02:18 PM

Smart rule

daneblazer · 03-23-16, 03:12 PM

One step closer to eliminate kickoff returns.

just go ahead and fukkin do it

Foxx · 03-23-16, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by daneblazer

One step closer to eliminate kickoff returns.

just go ahead and fukkin do it

Exactly. The only thing though is you really need to preserve the function of the onside kick.

The Giant · 03-23-16, 03:23 PM

Won't even be noticeable in scores.

Relax, guys.

This is nothing.

daneblazer · 03-23-16, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by The Giant

Won't even be noticeable in scores.

Relax, guys.

This is nothing.

dont think it will either. punts after kickoffs will be longer now.

habitualwinning · 03-23-16, 03:50 PM

More returns means more returns for TD's and also more fumbles, which gives the other team great field position, if not a scoop and score. I don't see how this wouldn't make scores go up overall, even if slightly, only a couple points per game. Think about how many times you watch a game and the drive stalls about the 30 or 35 and the announcer is always like will the coach punt it now or try the long FG on 4th and 4 from the 35 yard line. You don't think those extra 5 yards make that decision easier? Even if the kicker misses the FG, then the other team starts with great field position off the miss. Whereas in the past they would've just coffin cornered it, now you have the possibility of 3 pts from the offense or even if they miss, the other team has a higher probability of scoring now cause they start a shorter drive. Think about this scenario too. You just scored to go up 6 with 55 seconds left in the game and you want the touchback as a coach to prevent a kickoff return for a TD. Now Brady or Rodgers or whoever has 5 less yards needed to score or in other words is 5 yards closer for throwing a last second deep route or hailmary if needed. There's all kinds of scenarios where this helps the offenses.

TheMoneyShot · 03-23-16, 03:58 PM

Editing my post....

So all kicks go to the 25?

I read it wrong.

Harry N. Lloyd · 03-23-16, 06:40 PM

Whatever happened to "If it ain't broke, don't fix it"? Ever since that despicable ginger Goodell took office it's been rule change after rule change. He hides behind the mantra of players safety but it's actually all about scoring more and more points so the pink hats and fantasy geeks keep watching. It's getting close to the XFL.

pavyracer · 03-23-16, 06:50 PM

Stupid rule. Won't affect scoring.

SharpAngles · 03-23-16, 07:12 PM

Coaches still scared of special teams. 95% will still bomb it into the crowd.

ZINISTER · 03-27-16, 09:05 AM

Can't see it effecting anything other then field position. I understand the whole concept of teams are starting closer to the goal line how wouldn't make it go up. But, an OC will not change his 1st down play calling due to the 5 yrd. increase. Scoring from the 20 or the 25 depends on a team moving the sticks the same amount of times or hitting a big play to score from either spot. Shouldn't notice much difference. Remember, it also changes field position just the same when going 3 and out. If you got 5 yards on the drive, you are where you would have been when you got a 1st down before. It's a wash.

lakerboy · 03-27-16, 10:22 AM

Nfl just needs to place the ball at the 20 yard line after a team scores and tell the other team to start their drive.

t-bone · 03-27-16, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by Harry N. Lloyd

Whatever happened to "If it ain't broke, don't fix it"? Ever since that despicable ginger Goodell took office it's been rule change after rule change. He hides behind the mantra of players safety but it's actually all about scoring more and more points so the pink hats and fantasy geeks keep watching. It's getting close to the XFL.

ZINISTER · 03-28-16, 09:25 AM

It's a safety issue at this point. This is no longer a game of brutality. Who can knock the other teams QB outta the game and get to the back-up? Who is going to send somebody to the hospital? The NFL players are playing to preserve themselves! It is still very rough. But, it is in no way-the SAME as it used to be. Everyone knows contract years are the time to shine. They don't hit QB's in the middle of the back, only can grab his shoestring.lol I still love it fock it, it's all we got.

lilpete · 03-28-16, 01:32 PM

nfl is in serious trouble with this CTE stuff

KnownUnknown · 03-28-16, 03:20 PM

Maybe if the league would get back to proper tackling techniques, wrapping up players instead of spearing and bashing guys up high- they might not have as big a problem as we are seeing.

RudyRuetigger · 03-28-16, 03:55 PM

im checking with my model right now

shes at work

back at 5

jjgold · 03-28-16, 04:08 PM

seems to me NFL wants more runbacks now

BriGuy · 03-28-16, 04:36 PM

In the final year of the kickoff being on the 30 yard line, NFL teams scored 22.0 points per game on average.
In the first year of the kickoff being on the 35 yard line, where teams had worse starting field position, NFL teams scored 22.2 points over average.

Just not seeing all that much correlation between a couple yards of improved starting field position on kickoffs and significantly higher scoring.

Thunderground · 03-28-16, 07:05 PM

A botched play now gives a team 5 yards more insurance before they're backed up against their goal line. Once a team has to kick from within their own 10 yard line it sets the other team up pretty nicely for a score (so one towards lower totals) Those extra five yards also change the game, because a team won't have to turn to the run to get out of trouble. And less running means less time off the clock (one towards higher totals). And of course, a shorter field makes it easier to score, especially FG's (one towards higher totals). For TD's it may make less difference, because, unlike FG's, they require a breakthrough, and for those an extra five yards aren't that significant.

habitualwinning · 03-28-16, 11:43 PM

The teams with great offenses and good special teams, like Pittsburgh, New England, Green Bay etc. will benefit from this. Think of it this way. If a team gets 12 possessions in a game, 5 yards times 12 equals 60 yards. Think about giving the greats like Brady or Rodgers 60 free yards every game. Not everyone will benefit from this equally though. Teams with anemic offenses like Cleveland or San Francisco won't benefit cause they can't score anyway even if you give them the ball at the 50. Even if the kickers get cute and try to hit it high and short of the endzone so the returner has to bring it out, he's likely to still get to the 20 which was the old starting point. So worst case is you start about the 20 or 17 like they used too. Best case is you start at the 25 or your returner rips a big return. This benefits teams with good offenses and special teams in my opinion.