Expected value

[estaban yan]

I'm new to the world of sports betting and am having a tough time calculating and edge on my bets. I've been trying to follow this formula:

(probability of winning) x (amount won per bet) - (probability of losing) x (amount lost per bet)

my question is: where do you find the probability of winning? I've seen things like Boston has an 54% chance of beating philly who has a 46% chance. But where do you find these percentages at??? Any help is greatly appreciated.

[KVB]

It is best to create a final score that is closer to the real world than the books can offer. This can be done many ways but is often done through regressions and "black box" modeling, as well as back testing.

Even then, the markets are dynamic and it good to be flexible.

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