I want to put a boatload of money on the field to beat Donald in Tuesday's primary....I can't find any that might actually vote him and I live in a very populated area....is anybody with me?!
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I live in MO or misery as some like to call it. Trump will get destroyed in St. Louis/portions of St. Louis County, Columbia and portions of Kansas City. He'll rake it in everywhere else, St. Charles County, Jefferson County, Lincoln County and areas around Springfield and the bootheel. I honestly don't think this is a strong bet one way or the other and the latest line I saw had the field only as a marginal dog like +130. So I personally don't think it's worth betting on.
With all of the candidates still in I would think that would help Trump cause they'll be a lot of split action going on. You could have a result like Trump 30%, Cruz 28%, Rubio 27%, Kasich 15%. Or Cruz 30%, Trump 28% etc. Missouri is a true bellwether state and there is always a lot of regional division in politics. I know people who are voting for every candidate. A lot of older people I know are for Rubio, the religious types I know are for Cruz, a few moderates are for Kasich and a lot of redneck, rural, pro gun, pro military and police types I know are voting Trump.
If you're serious about betting on this you better look up historical results and see what type of candidate the people of MO usually vote for in primaries. For example who won in 2012, 2008, 2000? I can't even remember. Then I would look up how adjacent states to MO voted. Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois. The final thing is weather. That determines voter turnout. The weather for Tuesday is supposed to be great. 70's and sunny, so it could be a huge turnout. See which candidate does better with higher turnouts in other states. If you answer all the questions in this post you will know the winner. BOL.Comment -
I looked it up cause I was curious. Bush won big in the MO primary in 2000, McCain barely beat Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum won big in 2012. That doesn't really help much cause I think Trump and Rubio are most similar to Bush and McCain and I think Cruz is most similar to Santorum and Huckabee. Those previous results kinda back my theory that nobody will run away with this and it could be a tight 3 way race with only a couple % separating the top.
I also looked up the neighboring states. Illinois votes the same day as MO and Nebraska is after MO, so no help in there. The other 6 adjacent states to MO have been pretty split. Arkansas Trump won by 2%, Oklahoma Cruz won by 6%, Tennessee Trump won by 14%, Kansas Cruz won by 25%, Kentucky Trump won by 4%, and Iowa Cruz won by 3%. I have no idea which candidate benefits the most from high voter turnout but I just heard something like they're predicting 30%-40% voter turnout on Tuesday. That's pretty damn high for a March primary. Also FWIW, I've seen a bunch of commercials for Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and a couple for Marco Rubio but none for Trump, Cruz or Kasich which I thought was a bit weird. I have however seen a few anti-Trump CPAC commercials.Comment -
Mizzou will be an easy Trump win. Mizzou wants to make America great again.Comment -
Well let's help each other out and vote for Cruz and make some money on this! I've got a few friends voting for him that usually vote democrat. I've talke to a few of my cousins in KC and they really think it's going to go Cruz with the fact Kansas went his way! And Columbia is going to be going sanders no doubtComment -
Cruz won Kansas big and Iowa and Oklahoma, so that bodes well for Cruz in the western and northern part of the state. Is there an actual line on Cruz winning or is it just Trump vs the field? Trump or Cruz will win. The other two I'd be really shocked if they came close, let alone won. The problem is if you're backing Cruz on a bet, Rubio and Kasich are going to split some of his votes so that leaves the door open for Trump to steal it. If it was just Trump vs. Cruz straight up, I'd be pretty confident in Cruz winning this state. Did you see where they were letting people from Kansas vote in St. Louis during the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last week cause there were so many people from Kansas in MO to watch the Wichita State Shockers play? That was pretty bizarre. I've never heard of people being able to vote in another state before.Comment -
Tomorrow is the day....all Missourians get to your local book, place your bet on the field and let's make some money on Cruz and the field!!!Comment -
Trump 2016 sorry palComment -
Be careful with this one. Some things have happened recently in MO that I think will push Trump over the top now tomorrow and cost Cruz. That rally Trump had in St. Louis over the weekend was absolutely packed. He probably could've filled Chaifetz Arena or Scottrade Center. Thousands of people got turned away cause of fire code capacity. Trump is big on stopping illegal immigration and just last week an illegal immigrant went on a killing spree, murdering 5 people some in MO. It was all over the news. Lastly the latest polls from local news outlet and newspapers show Trump ahead in every poll by a decent margin >5%.
The lines I'm seeing for this have Ted Cruz vs. the field and the line keeps changing. Latest I saw the field was like -120. Field seems like the play. Last week I thought Cruz was the favorite to win Missouri, as of today I think Trump is the favorite. Also all of the violence and protests that broke out over the weekend in St. Louis and Chicago will help Trump cause last time this shit went down in Ferguson after the Mike Brown shooting it was like 1960's all over again. People were staunchly divided often times exclusively based on race and class and nothing else, so he's going to pick up a bunch of undecided/independent/moderate votes just based on that alone. Trump seems like he has all the momentum now in Missouri and other states that vote tomorrow.Comment -
How do they grade this bet, is it based on raw popular vote totals or delegates earned? If it's popular vote it looks like you're screwed man by about 1000 votes. I was hearing political pundits say though that Cruz could actually earn more delegates than Trump in MO even though he lost the popular vote. He was saying that if no candidate gets 51% of the vote as here, that the delegates are divided based on who won each individual congressional district. If this primary was last Tuesday instead of this Tuesday, Cruz would've won. Read my previous post for an explanation why Trump pulled it off. I saw that shit coming like avalanche and called it perfectly. Trump picked up the moderate and undecided vote based on events in the media days before this primary and it pushed him over the top by the slimmest of margins. He stole this one like a thief in the night and Clinton flat out heisted the bank. Bitch was trailing all night and then mysteriously won by only a couple hundred votes. Con job at its finest there.Comment
