There are many ways to handicap these sports and some ways work better in different situations than others. Sometimes more sophisticated ways to handicap tend to meet eye to eye with less sophisticated methods and average handicapping. This can be mere coincidence or by design in the marketplace.
Many modelers have the Spurs -7 and Under 196. When forecasting this game I can see much agreement with projections, from less sophisticated bettors to more advanced bettors, of the Spurs winning by about 9 points in games falling some 20 points under the Total of 196.
As projections get a little more sophisticated, however, we begin to see a higher scoring game, closer to 200, with a much closer spread…all the way down to near a pick em, with the Spurs getting the nod.
This is not say some are any less sophisticated than the next guy, but to illustrate the truth that different players can agree; while everyone will eventually, with some games, have outlier results, far from the lines offered. This is often dictated by the marketplace.
As for the Boston Celtics, again a large part of the space, including less sophisticated players, have the Celtics winning by about 5 points. As the predictions get more enhanced, however, we find Boston can be projected to win by as many as 13 points. This type of agreement could easily spell trouble for the Celtics and we could see a high scoring game if the underdog plays tough.
I would expect line movements consistent with the more sophisticated projections here. For example, if you see a drop in the Spurs point spread, be aware that it wasn’t a volume of tickets with money, but few tickets with large money, or what they call reverse line movement.
Interestingly, for the Celtics game, virtually everyone agrees with a total around 203 or 204. Despite this, the books show a 208 point line that has pressured upward to 208.5.
The Celtics get into the hundreds quite a bit and Milwaukee tends to give up in the hundreds, could public perception have caused the oddsmakers to open the line a bit too high or are the books trying to draw the forecasters into an Under bet? In this market of give and take, it seems to me, that the OVER 208, despite appearing to get a lot of play, could be a difficult bet to swallow.
Then again, those most difficult bets can often be the winning bets.
Watch out for the Heat at home tonight and a close game in Milwaukee could spell the OVER in that issue.
Good Luck
Many modelers have the Spurs -7 and Under 196. When forecasting this game I can see much agreement with projections, from less sophisticated bettors to more advanced bettors, of the Spurs winning by about 9 points in games falling some 20 points under the Total of 196.
As projections get a little more sophisticated, however, we begin to see a higher scoring game, closer to 200, with a much closer spread…all the way down to near a pick em, with the Spurs getting the nod.
This is not say some are any less sophisticated than the next guy, but to illustrate the truth that different players can agree; while everyone will eventually, with some games, have outlier results, far from the lines offered. This is often dictated by the marketplace.
As for the Boston Celtics, again a large part of the space, including less sophisticated players, have the Celtics winning by about 5 points. As the predictions get more enhanced, however, we find Boston can be projected to win by as many as 13 points. This type of agreement could easily spell trouble for the Celtics and we could see a high scoring game if the underdog plays tough.
I would expect line movements consistent with the more sophisticated projections here. For example, if you see a drop in the Spurs point spread, be aware that it wasn’t a volume of tickets with money, but few tickets with large money, or what they call reverse line movement.
Interestingly, for the Celtics game, virtually everyone agrees with a total around 203 or 204. Despite this, the books show a 208 point line that has pressured upward to 208.5.
The Celtics get into the hundreds quite a bit and Milwaukee tends to give up in the hundreds, could public perception have caused the oddsmakers to open the line a bit too high or are the books trying to draw the forecasters into an Under bet? In this market of give and take, it seems to me, that the OVER 208, despite appearing to get a lot of play, could be a difficult bet to swallow.
Then again, those most difficult bets can often be the winning bets.
Watch out for the Heat at home tonight and a close game in Milwaukee could spell the OVER in that issue.
Good Luck
