This trend has been pretty much automatic for me all season.

[stevenash]

Just hit my fifth straight betting this trend (I would have written it up, but I was multi-tasking with 18" of snow and a car and a SUV to dig out.)

And it's simple.

The 'under' has been covering (with ease) when two NBA teams meet on the back end of a back to back.

I posted the Hawks / Kings game the other night, the under there was a no doubter.
Tonight the Knicks were on the back end of a back to backer, and the Hornets were as well.
Bottom line, another no doubter as Charlotte wins 97-84 (181, total closed at 201.5)

What had me scratching my head was an hour before tip the total was 198 flat and got bet up 3.5 points before tip.
Go figure?

When I spot the next occurrence when two teams hook up and both are playing for the 2nd time in consecutive night I'll post it, but Holy Mother of God this under trend has been gold lately.

[Can U Tank It]

sounds good- thanks. i think maybe feb 6 is next opportunity

[Dan Kelly]

5 straight is coincidence.

Since the start of the 13-14 NBA season, both teams on 2nd game of 'Back to Back', the total is 134-105-2 O/U/P (not considering OT's, the totals are 120-119 O/U - some handicappers take out the "luck factor" of OT, especially when looking for OVERS).
If, in that situation, the road team is on the 2nd or 3rd game of the road trip, then you go 31-40 O/U, not counting OT's (33-38 nominally). Considering the situation, that sample size is nearly statistically significant.

If you are going to bet trends the sample size has to be large enough to be statistically valid.

BoL

[Seaweed]

Dan kelly wow

Post of year

[Capybara]

Dan kelly wow

Post of year

Agreed. Dan, I've never seen you before, but please keep posting shit like that, for all sports, frequently!

[Dan Kelly]

The most important thing to remember about trend betting is that it is just one more weapon in your handicapping arsenal, but you shouldn't bet trends unless other important factors line up on the same side.

And NEVER FORGET = anything can happen. The most important aspect to sports betting is money management. I recommend the Kelly Criterion (no relation) ... It is really very simple =
a good bet is 1% of your bankroll, a great bet is 3% of your bankroll
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

These are the factors I start with for every bet =

News & Injuries
New & Old

Past Performance
Road / Home
By the line
By the total
Recent
Rest Situation
Travel Situation
v. Quality of Opp
In/Out Conf/Div

FOCUS
Revenge
Recent games
Rivalry
History
Next Opponent

Line Movement
Referees

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pag...signments.html

BoL

[stevenash]

5 straight is coincidence.

Since the start of the 13-14 NBA season, both teams on 2nd game of 'Back to Back', the total is 134-105-2 O/U/P (not considering OT's, the totals are 120-119 O/U - some handicappers take out the "luck factor" of OT, especially when looking for OVERS).
If, in that situation, the road team is on the 2nd or 3rd game of the road trip, then you go 31-40 O/U, not counting OT's (33-38 nominally). Considering the situation, that sample size is nearly statistically significant.

If you are going to bet trends the sample size has to be large enough to be statistically valid.

BoL

Dan, you are talking to a math geek who makes a living as an I/T Operations Analyst.
I work for a life insurance company, I can bore you into a coma about actuaries, statistics, variance, etc. etc. etc.
Believe me, I know what you are saying.

My point being the under has been hitting for me at an alarming rate recently, not that it's going to win, day in, day out.

p.s. there is no such thing as a coincidence by the way.

[tatddy]

All due respect to Dan I'm much more interested in relative, recent form and "coincidences" than anything antiquated that's built into the line anyway.

Thanks Nash

[Chi_archie]

automatic

all season long

[Dan Kelly]

Here are the remaining games this NBA season when both teams are on the 2nd game of a Back to Back.
Hope it helps.

BoL

				Road		Home
Mo	2/1/16	20:00	BB3in4	Dal		Atl	BB
Sa	2/6/16	19:00	BB3in4	Was		Cha	BB3in4
Sa	2/6/16	19:30	BB3in4	Brk		Phi	BB3in4
Sa	2/6/16	19:00	BB3in4	Dal		Mem	BB
Mo	2/8/16	20:00	BB3in4	Orl		Atl	BB3in4
Sa	2/20/16	19:30	BB	Mil		Atl	BB
Sa	2/20/16	19:30	BB	Was		Mia	BB
Sa	2/20/16	19:00	BB	NYK		Min	BB
Mo	2/22/16	19:00	BB3in4	Det		Cle	BB
Mo	2/29/16	19:00	BB3in4	Ind		Cle	BB3in4
Mo	2/29/16	19:00	BB3in4	Phi		Was	BB3in4
We	3/2/16	19:00	BB	Chi		Orl	BB3in4
Th	3/3/16	19:00	BB	SAS		NOP	BB
Sa	3/5/16	19:00	BB3in4	Bos		Cle	BB
Sa	3/5/16	19:00	BB3in4	Ind		Was	BB3in4
Sa	3/5/16	19:00	BB	Brk		Min	BB3in4
Tu	3/8/16	19:00	BB3in4	SAS		Min	BB4in5
Sa	3/12/16	19:00	BB3in4	Hou		Cha	BB3in4
Sa	3/12/16	19:00	BB3in4	Det		Phi	BB3in4
Sa	3/12/16	19:30	BB	Orl		Por	BB
Su	3/13/16	18:00	BB	Ind		Atl	BB3in4
Mo	3/14/16	19:00	BB	Cle		Uta	BB3in4
Mo	3/21/16	19:30	BB3in4	Orl		Bos	BB3in4
Th	3/24/16	19:30	BB3in4	Chi		NYK	BB
Th	3/24/16	19:30	BB	Por		LAC	BB
Sa	3/26/16	19:30	BB3in4	Atl		Det	BB3in4
Sa	3/26/16	19:30	BB	Cha		Mil	BB3in4
Mo	3/28/16	19:00	BB3in4	Dal		Den	BB3in4
Th	3/31/16	19:00	BB4in5	Den		NOP	BB3in4
We	4/6/16	19:00	BB3in4	OkC		Por	BB4in5
We	4/6/16	19:30	BB3in4	LAC		LAL	BB3in4
Mo	4/11/16	19:00	BB3in4	Mil		Orl	BB3in4
Mo	4/11/16	19:30	BB3in4	Was		Brk	BB3in4
Mo	4/11/16	19:00	BB3in4	Dal		Uta	BB3in4

[TheLock]

automatic

all season long

Archayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!

[jjgold]

anytime threads like this are started watch out

anyway good work Nashy

[bambambegelow]

losing bet in the long run...losing via vigs. books always adjust line even if there is a working trend and eventually it will converge to 50%

someone said that under is money in the bank when a there is a road trip with a team where they play 4 games in 5 nights and the 4th game on the 5th night is an automatic under. i watched a guy go on a 14-2 run betting those unders before closing the season 21-20. But he lost a shit ton because when he went 14-2 he was betting smaller amounts and by then he thought he found the holy grail and started betting 5x the normal amount. he got buried when the season finished 21-20

[jjgold]

losing bet in the long run...losing via vigs. books always adjust line even if there is a working trend and eventually it will converge to 50%

someone said that under is money in the bank when a there is a road trip with a team where they play 4 games in 5 nights and the 4th game on the 5th night is an automatic under. i watched a guy go on a 14-2 run betting those unders before closing the season 21-20. But he lost a shit ton because when he went 14-2 he was betting smaller amounts and by then he thought he found the holy grail and started betting 5x the normal amount. he got buried when the season finished 21-20

everything comes back to around 50%

Only guys that win are guys that beat numbers/closers

[stevenash]

Trick to betting trends is knowing when to get on, and more importantly knowing when to get off.
I'm still on this trend, I'll know when to get off it, now is not the time,