NFL thoughts

[lakerboy]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-coaches-are-getting-away-with-crimes-against-middle-school-math/

[lakerboy]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-coaches-are-getting-away-with-crimes-against-middle-school-math/

[gauchojake]

Guy who wrote the article clearly doesn't understand that the games are rigged

[DrunkHorseplayer]

He doesn't understand football either.

[The Giant]

Dumb article.

[DwightShrute]

Dumb article.

this

[TheMoneyShot]

I thought LB was going to say he has a wager on Carolina, Arizona, Denver, and New England on Sunday.

"NFL Thoughts"

[birdman24]

4 team 13pt teaser
denver +16
Arizona +16
New England +10
Carolina +10

[Pick9]

4 team 13pt teaser
denver +16
Arizona +16
New England +10
Carolina +10

[Calgunner23]

4 team 13pt teaser
denver +16
Arizona +16
New England +10
Carolina +10

Love it!

[DOM-Ganador]

Love it!

I would definately take a close look at a total or 2 with this bet.

[Calgunner23]

I would definately take a close look at a total or 2 with this bet.

Guy has every team, can't lose! LOL

Who is that in your avatar brotha? He looks like Ricky Ricardo to me.

[BigdaddyQH]

That is a pu**y wager. Give the house away as far as vig is concerned so he can say he has a wager down. 5 bucks to win 4.50. Onlhy a true wuss would make a wager like that, but look at his avatar. Clown has been a member since 2009 and has under 2000 points.

[Allure]

I thought LB was going to say he has a wager on Carolina, Arizona, Denver, and New England on Sunday.

"NFL Thoughts"

[birdman24]

That is a pu**y wager. Give the house away as far as vig is concerned so he can say he has a wager down. 5 bucks to win 4.50. Onlhy a true wuss would make a wager like that, but look at his avatar. Clown has been a member since 2009 and has under 2000 points.

I have less than 2000 points because I bet with real money. You're a real tough guy in your moms basement. I don't gotta prove shit to you pussy!!

[birdman24]

....and that's just this week!!

[POOLSIDE]

The argument that it's "for sure" the better decision in the Packers' situation is absurd. There are so many factors that cannot be calculated even remotely with any sort of grade school math. Things like injuries. Example, if Palmer and Fitzgerald and Johnson had all left the game with injuries, going for two in that situation becomes retarded. Things like defensive stamina and momentum. If your d is feeling fresh and has stopped the home team five drives in a row, you kick the extra point and hope that momentum carried on to overtime. These things simply cannot be calculated at all, especially by using strictly historical data of other unrelated football games. Insane.

The Chiefs' scenario though, that's another story. The math is sound there. It's insane to play for a tie there, when gambling for a two point conversion actually increases your chances of winning. This cannot be argued against, except in very very rare cases.

[Snowball]

The article exaggerates the benefits of the 2-pt without mentioning the dangers,
however I was thinking the same thing at the time re: Green Bay..
they had the momentum and the chance to end the game right there and
should have taken it. You can't be afraid to lose when you're on the road and
have a chance to end it.
Concerning KC however, he is dead wrong because even if they got 2 they would
be down by 6 so would need an onside recovery and a TD anyway after which they
could go for 2 and win - but if they failed a 2 in the first one they wouldn't have that shot.

[POOLSIDE]

Concerning KC however, he is dead wrong because even if they got 2 they would be down by 6 so would need an onside recovery and a TD anyway after which they
could go for 2 and win - but if they failed a 2 in the first one they wouldn't have that shot.

No. If they got the two they would not need another two point conversion for the win. They would only need an extra point. And if they failed the initial conversion, they would not be dead. They could make the second conversion and still go to overtime.

Mentioning the need for an onside recovery is nonsense, as they're looking for that no matter what they do with the initial extra point.

The fact is, going for two in that scenario, with such a small amount of time on the clock, is the mathematically wiser decision.

[StackinGreen]

POOL, have you seen the GB schedule for 2016-17? Before I give you my thoughts, what's your take on where LVH or others will set the win total?

[Grits n' Gravy]

That is a pu**y wager. Give the house away as far as vig is concerned so he can say he has a wager down. 5 bucks to win 4.50. Onlhy a true wuss would make a wager like that, but look at his avatar. Clown has been a member since 2009 and has under 2000 points.

Pot meet kettle with your 553 points. Go back to putting on your helmet and velcro sneakers.

[StackinGreen]

LOL, bigDaddy needs to pick a winner or come within a mile of a game analysis (haven't seen either in at least a month) before he talks about laying a "vig he doesn't like"

[gambler705]

That is a pu**y wager. Give the house away as far as vig is concerned so he can say he has a wager down. 5 bucks to win 4.50. Onlhy a true wuss would make a wager like that, but look at his avatar. Clown has been a member since 2009 and has under 2000 points.

This comimg from the biggest ass clown joke on SBR who throws down $25 on ohio st ML over illinois...

[gambler705]

LOL, bigDaddy needs to pick a winner or come within a mile of a game analysis (haven't seen either in at least a month) before he talks about laying a "vig he doesn't like"

Big Daddy is just a cranky old man... Aint that right Barry?

[POOLSIDE]

POOL, have you seen the GB schedule for 2016-17? Before I give you my thoughts, what's your take on where LVH or others will set the win total?

Honestly have not looked at a single thing for next season. I'm also not a huge futures bettor, but whatever the Packers total is, I'd have to look at the under. With that said, so much can change in the next eight months. That team knows damn well that they absolutely need to add competent receivers. It was a joke this season. If they manage to accomplish this goal, they immediately go back to being one of the teams who can beat anyone on any given day and probably takes care of business against everyone they're supposed to beat.

Wothout even looking king at the schedule, you'd have to assume they'll win between 9-12 games. Huge window, I know. But again, this is me not looking at the schedule. I'm guessing the line will be shaded a little high because everyone loves the Packers, and may open around 11, especially after their playoff resurgence. I can see them getting there, but I'd have to take the under if I was forced to bet it.

[StackinGreen]

Honestly have not looked at a single thing for next season. I'm also not a huge futures bettor, but whatever the Packers total is, I'd have to look at the under. With that said, so much can change in the next eight months. That team knows damn well that they absolutely need to add competent receivers. It was a joke this season. If they manage to accomplish this goal, they immediately go back to being one of the teams who can beat anyone on any given day and probably takes care of business against everyone they're supposed to beat.

Wothout even looking king at the schedule, you'd have to assume they'll win between 9-12 games. Huge window, I know. But again, this is me not looking at the schedule. I'm guessing the line will be shaded a little high because everyone loves the Packers, and may open around 11, especially after their playoff resurgence. I can see them getting there, but I'd have to take the under if I was forced to bet it.

Cross division is NFC East and AFC South is the conference divisional matchup, with Seattle at home and Atlanta on the road in the other two slots.

With just Jordy and Tim Montgomery back, forgetting possibly drafting another WR and/or TE, you don't think that's already a HUGE edge or upgrade given how much Cobb shows he needs Nelson?

[POOLSIDE]

Cross division is NFC East and AFC South is the conference divisional matchup, with Seattle at home and Atlanta on the road in the other two slots.

With just Jordy and Tim Montgomery back, forgetting possibly drafting another WR and/or TE, you don't think that's already a HUGE edge or upgrade given how much Cobb shows he needs Nelson?

I agree, that's already a better football team. I have a gut feeling they won't lose to the Lions next year. They'll be pissed about the way they played in those two games. I also expect Minnesota to regress next year, as Adrian is a year older and Teddy simply isn't good. Teams have to be catching on to the whole stack the box and make Teddy beat you thing. Plus I doubt they'll recover from that devastating loss to Seattle.

For some reason, I expect Chicago to be their biggest threat in the division. I know how stupid that sounds, but I think they were better than their record this season and they're certainly well coached. They also stand to improve the most in the offseason, as they were playing most of the year with very little talent on the skill positions.

They can certainly beat the hell out of everyone in the NFC east. That's an understatement. Same with the AFC south. Pretty fortunate schedule, I had no idea this is the case.

[POOLSIDE]

Just looked at the schedule. Looks like 13-3 to me. I'd be shocked if they win less than 11.

[StackinGreen]

Just looked at the schedule. Looks like 13-3 to me. I'd be shocked if they win less than 11.

Yup.

[StackinGreen]

I agree, that's already a better football team. I have a gut feeling they won't lose to the Lions next year. They'll be pissed about the way they played in those two games. I also expect Minnesota to regress next year, as Adrian is a year older and Teddy simply isn't good. Teams have to be catching on to the whole stack the box and make Teddy beat you thing. Plus I doubt they'll recover from that devastating loss to Seattle.

For some reason, I expect Chicago to be their biggest threat in the division. I know how stupid that sounds, but I think they were better than their record this season and they're certainly well coached. They also stand to improve the most in the offseason, as they were playing most of the year with very little talent on the skill positions.

They can certainly beat the hell out of everyone in the NFC east. That's an understatement. Same with the AFC south. Pretty fortunate schedule, I had no idea this is the case.

I agree with every word.