Middling NFL Totals?

[gregmav1]

The fact that you're calling yourself the king after a $100 win is hilarious.

i'm fuc.king joking dude. relax. just got a lot of hate in the thread and feels good to come through.

kidcudi agreed bro. i'm well aware 1-0 means nothing overall, but still very happy with the win, excited to see if i can hit around 50% with these which would be a nice profit long term

[SharpAngles]

Your highness,

Analyze the game and you'll see 2 missed FGs, Steelers first and goal from the 2 ending in FG and heyward-bey's toe on the line negating another TD. Oh, I forgot the insanely lucky last second TD that got your middle too. I can only imagine Tomlin was on +7.5 the way he was calling TOs down 14 with 20 seconds left .

And trust me no hate here, I cashed +233 on a Pitt +7.5 AND Under 51.5 prop so I'm glad it worked out this time, but lets not get carried away that this "system" will be profitable.

[gregmav1]

Your highness,

Analyze the game and you'll see 2 missed FGs, Steelers first and goal from the 2 ending in FG and heyward-bey's toe on the line negating another TD. Oh, I forgot the insanely lucky last second TD that got your middle too. I can only imagine Tomlin was on +7.5 the way he was calling TOs down 14 with 20 seconds left .

And trust me no hate here, I cashed +233 on a Pitt +7.5 AND Under 51.5 prop so I'm glad it worked out this time, but lets not get carried away that this "system" will be profitable.

Well I will say you're contradicting yourself slightly... You say there were missed points with 2 missed FGs, and Heyward-Bey's toe on the line for another missed TD. But then the insanely lucky last TD that shouldn't have been. To me it sounds like that's a perfect split and the total ended up exactly where it should have been.

And dude, again if you read through my thread, I have been very non-serious about this the whole time. It's not a "system" at all. I'm a very casual bettor. But I do think I'll be able to look at some lines where I think damn, I see the score being right there, and be able to middle it. I won't be able to do it anything like 75% of the time, but as we showed before, only need to hit about 35% to make it profitable.

I'm just saying, celebration for two-fold, 1. I was getting a ton of hate in the thread, which is fine it's obviously not a super official system (none are, they're all jokes, but i at least admit it), but then when it does win i get no congratulations and still only more hate, which is annoying but I don't care... and 2. I was very excited because that truly was a ridiculous backdoor cover, how could you not be super excited if you had my bet when that 30 yard TD with 2 seconds left happened?

Still, I think it was the right bet. Like you said, missed 7-13 easy points in the game, and the lucky 7 points at the end, I think it all evened out. I think this was a good bet by me. I'm going to look for games where I think it again. I can lose the next two and still be basically even, but if I keep on hitting some, that would be awesome.

[jjgold]

middlers die broke men

Gaps not big enough anymore on key numbers

[gregmav1]

1 for 1 jj!

I agree just like all systems, it's likely a long-term loser. But I'm going to have fun with it with some small bets and see if I can turn a profit for a few weeks. It's a fun bet to make, small risk too.

[gregmav1]

Also I disagree that the gaps aren't big enough... that's what I've been saying. These NFL Vegas totals are so close and sharp, then taking 5 points either way you have to have a good shot at middling it. First game of the season, o/u 51.5, final 49. Going to try and pick out some good ones

[slacker00]

gregmav1, any more for Sunday? You give a lot more analysis than most on here, at least good food for thought.

[gregmav1]

gregmav1, any more for Sunday? You give a lot more analysis than most on here, at least good food for thought.

Thanks man, sorry I was at a wedding all weekend and just saw this.

I'm on 49ers/Vikings Over 37, Under 47. Think this will settle in around 24-17

edit: sorry i got this in a little late, like 3 mins before game time... but I'll try to get some up for next week's games that I like.

[jjgold]

last night total middle came in

[gregmav1]

last night total middle came in

yeah I noticed that jj. i didnt play any this weekend just because I was really busy and didn't get to look closely at the games

[gregmav1]

Oh boy tonight's game screams middle to me. Going Over 39, Under 50. I'm calling a 27-17 score! 1-1 on the year! Just need to go 35% to make a profit, let's get it.

[Patrick McIrish]

Good luck Greg, cash it baby.

[SharpAngles]

I still don't like this approach but hope you hit it

[gregmav1]

Yeah just missed it due to that wild finish, that was crazy. I went from a push (which is a win - push one bet win one bet), to 2x win, to a loss, in the span of about 30 seconds of game time. These are fun bets to make though, don't lose much and can go from rooting for points to be scored to none being scored real quick. Now 1-2 and back to about even.

[SparJMU]

I probably just stupidly, but as a little fun experiment, laid money on Under 56 -210 and Over 46 -210 on tonight's game. If I put down $100 on each, the most I'm losing is about $50, while potentially making $100 if it does end up middling. And I feel like there's more than a 50% chance of that, probably 55-60%.

I think NFL is by far the sport that Vegas is sharpest at - it's bet the most, there's many many stats, and they just seem to NAIL the over/under and spread the majority of the time. If they set the total at 51.5 like tonight, I feel like 75% the time that total will not be more than a touchdown off. I'm sure like all betting systems/schemes, this is a long-term losing idea. But if a total is set at 51.5 for NFL, I bet it winds up right around there moreso than most sports.

Stupid idea? Probably, but whatever. Small risk, medium reward.

I am kind of shocked that this thread went for more than two posts. The original poster presented an idea that was creative, yet destined to cost him his entire bankroll. Thee should have been exactly one more post explaining to the poster why this strategy is horrible.

Do the math, how often does the total need to fall within that range in order to break even? About 35%. How often is the total going to fall in that range? Look at the push charts, map out your own set of 100 games that you would consider betting at the odds you are discussing. The answer is MUCH LESS than 35%. Conversation over. Please do not try to middle NFL totals.

[jjgold]

most people have gone broke chasing middles

its all you need to know

[gregmav1]

Like I said guys I'm a casual bettor, do it during my spare time that I have during law school. I think it's a really fun bet to make and it makes games interesting. Right now 1-2 I'm at even, I'm perfectly fine with that! The one last night honestly should have hit but those 32 seconds where 3 TDs were scored was ridiculous.

[SharpAngles]

I am kind of shocked that this thread went for more than two posts. The original poster presented an idea that was creative, yet destined to cost him his entire bankroll. Thee should have been exactly one more post explaining to the poster why this strategy is horrible.

Do the math, how often does the total need to fall within that range in order to break even? About 35%. How often is the total going to fall in that range? Look at the push charts, map out your own set of 100 games that you would consider betting at the odds you are discussing. The answer is MUCH LESS than 35%. Conversation over. Please do not try to middle NFL totals.

Well thought out and logical post. But every poster did tell OP this is not a winning proposition longterm. He's a "casual bettor" which apparently means cool with losing money in the long run

[gregmav1]

I truly am haha. I"m using 5% of my bets on these kind of bets, the other 95% are going towards regular bets and picking winners.

I'm also still not convinced that someone can do the math that says a range of 6 points +/- the total, doesn't hit 35% of the time. Guys like SparJMU say "Conversation Over." without providing any basis for it rather than their own thoughts, which is exactly the same thing that I'm doing.

[SharpAngles]

Don't get me wrong greg, do your thing. If you have a legit edge at picking the right games with tight total lines you could do better than 35% but you won't know your edge until you apply it. Thing is, any edge you do have is known by the books hence the -210 lines so it will not be easy. Good Luck