Rockies +132
Rockies shitty road team vs James shields...yup
Rockies shitty road team vs James shields...yup
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Braves +118Comment -
good luck manComment -
Orioles +128Comment -
Brewers +113Comment -
Reds +149Comment -
open this site. I check up on this everyday . And it's very and I mean very rare that they hit 3 -4 games in a row in day on the score card. Seattle , Tampa , and Royals all won and they picked them right. Now they have Detroit next as they're pick. And on the other side of the card they have Rockies ... Ill repeat myself AGEN , it's very rare that they hit on 4 in a row here a day. And even more rare when its 5 . If ur Gona bet the Rockies , my opinion is wait till last minute and check on the detroit game . If they are blowing up os. Bet the Padres big. that's a big if. But if I had to bet on them I'd pick Padres . And Os.Comment -
And as soon as I type that my statements are put on hold as the white soxs tied it up at 6 in the 9th . They were down by 2Comment -
Dude... flip a coin a hundred times and you'll see your bound to get heads or tails at least 4,5 or 6x in a row.
C'mon man...Comment -
CBS Sports Expert Picks
lol.Comment -
The rarety of it happening is very rare. The source doesn't matter, I follow it everyday just to see what they get wrong and right if u want to listen good if not Good luck on ur picks. I have my picks in my head before they post them up , and then just check up on days like these when there's day games. It's a trend that has been very friendly all year. And reasonably .Comment -
trueOriginally posted by Cordoba25
many games coin flipsComment -
There is no such thing as a "lock" in sports betting unless there's a fix and you got the inside word. And nobody here has a source like that. So every bet is a coin flip. Some bets smarter than others .Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
Disagree 100%. A coin flip is a 50-50 propostion w/out an edge whatsoever. Not the case with sports betting for the right type of bettor...Originally posted by Amadeo-Picks
There's a big difference between a lock (which as you say doesnt exist) and betting with an edge. If sports betting was a 50-50 thing, you wouldn't have professionals who have been doing this for a living for 30+ years. And even if you aren't a professional, so long as you are proficient in whatever sport you invest it.. with the proper research, knowledge, experience, discipline and money management.. one can still make a profit year in year out over a large enough sample of bets. However most casual bettors are squares and fall short with one of the things I mentioned above which kills any consistent +ev.Comment -
Originally posted by Cordoba25
I couldn't agree more with almost everything you said. That's what I meant by some bets smarter than others. Professionals hit on about 56%-60% of their bets (and if ur hitting 60 , I got no words for u other God bless you ) so in the end , it's always a coin flip. Especially in baseball . Last week , twins are down by 5 runs In the 9th inning and came back to win in un real fashion. I had the twins on that game , with all the info I gathered . Irvin Santana was very sharp in his first start vs the hot royals. And he was facing a verlander that had looked terrible. And what do you know? Irvin gives up 6. Verlander gives up 1. Luckily somehow they came back I got paid. Which is all that matters. My point is you can gather all the info in a game, unless you have real hard inside knocwledge of the players and umpires and all that shit. (Nobody here has that type of inside word) so It's a flip coin. Professionals hit 56% . So yes it's a flip coinComment -
But that's why I said over a large enough sample of games. Of course anything can happen in 1 game... especially in baseball which imo is the most random of all the major sports. It's the whole concept of variance. Just like a black jack card counter can loose over the time span of a hundred of hours or so, knowing that so long as he keeps playing with his/her edge, he'll eventually win it back and profit.. it's the same concept with sports betting (hopefully without the massive loosing streak.. and in respect to loosing individual games)
Just have to have right perspective; viewing sports betting as a collection of many, many bets resulting in 1 final result at the end of the year, which hopefully is positive. Not the easiest thing to do, but if one is truly betting with an edge, in the end you'll profit. That's why I disagree with you comparing it to a coin flip regardless of the outcome of individual games.
BTW: I was on Detroit that game. UGH. Don't remind me. Brutal..Comment -
Brewers no action...Comment -
I know a professional in Vegas, he said Verlander would pitch well that night.Comment -
LIVE Mets/Cards u11+115Comment -
Sports betting....where you can get an F avg and be a huge success in life. Tell that to your h.s. guidance counselor lol.
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haha!Originally posted by R.P. McMurphySports betting....where you can get an F avg and be a huge success in life. Tell that to your h.s. guidance counselor lol.Comment -
Like mentioned above its all about finding an edge to gain one in this biz....or a "perceived" one if nothing else. Had Mariners tt ov 3.5 today knowing Pineda struggles with extra rest and took Balty fg. My initial thought was take Price and Tigs 1h with pitching mismatch. Throw in fact Tigs been smashing lately and Balty pure shit it sounded easy. With just a couple min of digging though I saw Price has had issues with Balty and has not gone deep in games beyond 7 in many. Figure in it looks too "easy" factor, Joe pub all over Tigs, and if Balty can get to that Tigs pen by 7th if nothing else we got a live dog public burial in making. Look at stats, follow gut etc but end of day do some work and hope it pays off. Pleeeese don't blow this Balty!!!!Comment -
The books were handing out David Price -138 at home for a reason. Line could have easily been -160 and action would not have slacked much. Of course there's still time for guys who blew their load on this gimme in the bottom of the ninth here.Originally posted by R.P. McMurphyComment -
That is a good point about Price BJ.Comment -
Agree but again it's about "percieved" edge or just knowing teams strengths and weaknesses when wagering. Everyone knows Tigs pen has been an absolute mess in recent years so why bet fg? It's 1h or nothing with these clowns even with Price who is a workhorse and goes deep often but why take extra risk?
I was on that Minny comeback last wk what a rush lol!!! But last night I had Zona fg in their epic collapse. Should have known better there pen is very suspect to and even my boy texted me about half hr before gm and said I like it but taking 1h after I told him Zona. Thought 2 seconds and said Fukk he's right but I already had bet in and decided to ride it out.Comment -
Balty smashing 10 hits to 1 and now FINALLY up 3-0. Hang on boys and what a gem by Tillman!
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Originally posted by Amadeo-Picks
Whole le point of this was to pick a winner and Os underdog won 3-0. And Padres are tied 1-1 in the 6th. So this website and their trends and my picks ,continue to pick right picks.Comment -
Bada Bing Balty!! One last thing I will throw in and I've mentioned it several times on sbr lately is what I call "keep it simple stupid" method lol. Used to wager 6/10 games a day (action junkie) then cut back to 3-4 and now I'm going 1-2.
I get everyone has their own style , methods, or systems they have researched. But for me tracking 5 games going on at once and at times watching what looked like a 5-2 day in making and poof go 2-5 with a few bad breaks ....or even vice versa just got to be too much. Sure anyone can look at a board and see good leans but why bet them all? A 1-0 day just as good as a 5-4 day without all the sweat and swings. Much easier to really key on fewer games you REALLY like long run I think. Personally my goal ultimately is to be somewhere around 4-5 games a week per sport or league max. Good thread OP and good winnin to ya!!
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and now Padres .... So my method went 2-2 . Ur welcome for anyone that followed . Padres , Os.Originally posted by Amadeo-PicksComment -
Well as far as the full game vs first half argument I have my own method. I wouldn't lay any wood in something like the first five just because it's not like the managers or players are trying to win the first 5. All my first five action comes in at solid pitchers +0.5 a run. If I can get a good pitcher plus the run I have no problem laying the -140. No runs I win. Everything else for me is either live or full game.
Have to do what you feel comfortable with.Comment -
Braves +150Comment -
This kid just does not go away
He comes back
almost 6 years now
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