Adjusted Series Price is only Cavaliers +340 After Game 1

[LT Profits]

Looks like I got super mad value on my prop bet at +540.

[lakerboy]

Game went to overtime. Not like books have any reason to make much of an adjustment besides Irving injury. You got good value on your prop but..

[Vegas39]

Think your bet really dependent if Kyrie can play going forward

[LT Profits]

Think your bet really dependent if Kyrie can play going forward

He is already doubtful for Game 2 so already built in to the +340.

[Vegas39]

He is already doubtful for Game 2 so already built in to the +340.

OK hadn't heard that thanks LT

[LT Profits]

OK hadn't heard that thanks LT

Only saw the downgrade to Doubtful on Sports Options so far FWIW.

[eidolon]

GS -11 game 2

[LT Profits]

GS -11 game 2

They are -7.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

GS -11 game 2

Im seeing 6.5 / 7

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

LT beat me to it.

Not the first time.

Will not be the last either.

[jjgold]

Golden State will win by at least 10 it's a very very easy bet this is the NBA and you can't duplicate that type of game on the road against a great great team

[Conqueror]

I actually thought Irving should have had the last possession in regulation time. I think he would have used his athleticism to make a basket. I don't see the Cavaliers winning this series without Irving.

[eidolon]

Was just saying it should be -11 GS, because they are going to roll Cavs if Irving is out

[jjgold]

There is no value this series is over

[paco]

Curry and Klay had horrible games regardless of there #'s. LBJ scored 44 and still lost. Cavs are in trouble

[KGambler]

You bet a (negatively correlated) parlay. You won the first leg of the parlay. Of course your bet is now +EV. That doesn't mean it was +EV BEFORE you won the 1st leg.

[Seaweed]

Irving is on crutches

[nyplayer33]

jr smith was awful..they need him to be much better.

[olamide]

I actually thought Irving should have had the last possession in regulation time. I think he would have used his athleticism to make a basket. I don't see the Cavaliers winning this series without Irving.

And i don't see them winning the series with Irving as well. The splash brothers gets hot as the game comes. Irving or not, Cavs hides
Lebron is just one crazy player. He is carrying this team alot

[Dan Kelly]

I actually thought Irving should have had the last possession in regulation time. I think he would have used his athleticism to make a basket. I don't see the Cavaliers winning this series without Irving.

Not just that, but LeBron has been missing long iso jump shots at a very high rate (he was 9 for 62 from '3' going into tonight) - LeBron let his ego lose that game.

BOL

[Vinnie Paz]

Oh course lebron bricks the game winner, big suprise

Kyrie hurt again too

Warriors played down from their typical level and still win by 8

[LT Profits]

You bet a (negatively correlated) parlay. You won the first leg of the parlay. Of course your bet is now +EV. That doesn't mean it was +EV BEFORE you won the 1st leg.

Actually it was because I projected the series price to be +355 after Game 1 loss, which actually seems spot in after accounting for vig. I computed the +355 based on Warriors being -6 at home and Cavaliers being -2.5 at home for all the games, which may not be 100% accurate but close enough to work with.

[Big Bear]

Golden State will win by at least 10 it's a very very easy bet this is the NBA and you can't duplicate that type of game on the road against a great great team

this makes me want to pound the Cavs

[lakerboy]

this makes me want to pound the Cavs

Do it.

[jjgold]

entire thread

[GoBlue77]

Cavs are +415 LT. you're numbers suck.

everyone trying to pull a lakerboy now and look sharp, people, the cavs are done.

[LT Profits]

Cavs are +415 LT. you're numbers suck.

everyone trying to pull a lakerboy now and look sharp, people, the cavs are done.

Highest I see right now at any of my books is +385 at Bookmaker, and only went up because of Irving injury. I guess the +340 that was up at 5 Dimes last night did not take injury into account yet, they are now at +380. But regardless, I got +540, so still good regardless.

[italianbandit]

Highest I see right now at any of my books is +385 at Bookmaker, and only went up because of Irving injury. I guess the +340 that was up at 5 Dimes last night did not take injury into account yet, they are now at +380. But regardless, I got +540, so still good regardless.

The current price seems to be taking a middle position on the injury. If he is officially announced to not play in game 2, it will go up. It's not my thing but this is sort of a good spot for a bridge jumper.

[italianbandit]

LT, BTW, you're a machine. When do you cap, when your kids are sleeping?

[LT Profits]

The current price seems to be taking a middle position on the injury. If he is officially announced to not play in game 2, it will go up. It's not my thing but this is sort of a good spot for a bridge jumper.

Not worth middling for me since I only risked 1/5 of a unit in real life. It will be graded as one full unit in my record for consistency's sake, but in reality not much risk at all.

[jjgold]

Anybody that takes Cleveland Cavaliers now to win the series should never ever gamble again

[LT Profits]

Anybody that takes Cleveland Cavaliers now to win the series should never ever gamble again

You (and others) keep saying that, but all that the Warriors have done so far is hold serve at home and they were pushed while doing so. In the immortal words of Charles Barkley, "The series doesn't start until a road team wins a game!"

I guess that means if the home team wins all seven games in a series, the series never happened.

[Vegas39]

You (and others) keep saying that, but all that the Warriors have done so far is hold serve at home and they were pushed while doing so. In the immortal words of Charles Barkley, "The series doesn't start until a road team wins a game!"

I guess that means if the home team wins all seven games in a series, the series never happened.

If Kyrie knee keeps him out , I don't think Cavs have enough depth

[TheMoneyShot]

No offense to anyone who has Cleveland... but there's no efffing way they are going to win this series. Golden State was like a sleeping Giant the entire game. Game looked like Cleveland had it... and then Golden State just hammered them to the ground. I thought this series was going to be entertaining. I'm all about underdogs... but Cleveland has zero chance. I'm waiting for college football season now.... time for my vacation.

[Big Bear]

Looks like I got super mad value on my prop bet at +540.

its +500 right now

should i take it?