This look like a reasonable top 8 in MLB right now?

[Vegas39]

another high level contribution from an SBR stud

maybe get off lazy ass and mow lawn and your Mom can bump up your allowance. Broke fukk

[STAX]

I'll see you at the All Star break and we will re rank ourselves.

ALL Star break doesnt matter, thought this was World Series rankings, but we can do that. I only see 5 teams with a legit shot at winning it right now... Rays, Twins, DBacks will all be under .500 at the AS break anyways

[Ra77er]

I mean he is right though, we would want you to join us as an SBR PRO. Do whatever you have to do to make that happen Stacker.

[Ra77er]

It's not a World Series winner predictor, its an indication of who you think is playing the best baseball right now. You lose focus too easily my young padawan.

Once you figure this out your day to day betting will become much more fruitful.

[STAX]

It's not a World Series winner predictor, its an indication of who you think is playing the best baseball right now. You lose focus too easily my young padawan.

then the fact you dont include Nationals on your list makes it more laughable

[STAX]

then the fact you dont include Nationals on your list makes it more laughable

either that or the fact you have 9 teams in your top 8, its close

[Ra77er]

Ah and therein lies how you get so distracted by looking at the sprint and not the marathon of the sport. Laymens terms, stop looking at short term occurrences.

[Ra77er]

Just for funsies this is my top teams before the start of the the games tonight....yes I know St Louis is on already Everyday we learn something new and we must incorporate that.


1. LA Dodgers
2. New York Yankees
3. Kansas City Royals
4. St Louis Cardinals
5. Washington Nationals
6. Houston Astros
7. Miami Marlins
8 (tie). Tampa Bay Rays
8 (tie). Pittsburgh Pirates
8 (tie). New York Mets
9 (tie). Detroit Tigers
9 (tie). Arizona Diamondbacks
10. San Diego Padres
11(tie). Minnesota Twins
11(tie). Toronto Blue Jays



Todays plays for me

St Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
New York Mets
San Diego Padres

Good luck ~~~

[STAX]

haha now you got 15 teams in the top 11.... this gets better every day.

newsflash: when 3 teams tie for 8th, the next ranked team would be #11, not #9

[Ra77er]

That is the beauty of it.

[Ra77er]

You can try to destroy my vision any way you want Stacker but I can list teams any way I want. Maybe tomorrow I'll only list my bottom 3 teams and then what happens?

[Vegas39]

You can try to destroy my vision any way you want Stacker but I can list teams any way I want. Maybe tomorrow I'll only list my bottom 3 teams and then what happens?

Atlanta must be one

[STAX]

Bottom 3: Indians, Rockies, and White Sox.... although I expect Indians and White Sox to start playing well actually

[Ra77er]

Okay everything was fine and then Vegas happened. Time to take off the shirt and go full wife beater mode. Atlanta will never ever not never be last, even if I know it

[Ra77er]

Bottom three for me today.

28.Colorado Rockpile
29.Philadelphia Phillies
30.Chicago WSox

However do note that Col and CWS have played 2-3 games less than most others so I expect to see Philly firmly at the bottom in a few days....boo Philly

[STAX]

yeah forgot about Philly, they gotta be dead last

[Vegas39]

Okay everything was fine and then Vegas happened. Time to take off the shirt and go full wife beater mode. Atlanta will never ever not never be last, even if I know it

[Ra77er]

Oh one last tip if anyone is betting on the Ranger game, be aware that bad weather is a possibility. We've had tornado watches and thunderstorms here for the last few weeks and today its been overcast as hell here and looks like its going to rain. I doubt anyone really cares but be careful of that freeplay.

[krk1030]

Dodgers are the team to beat, and kershaw hasnt even gotten going yet.

[Big Bear]

1. Kansas City Royals -Clear WS favorite imho. 9/1

2. LA Dodgers -The NL representative in the world series. Managing is the key. 7/1

3. St Louis Cardinals -Legit world series threat, lack of focus at times early in the year but always ready down the stretch. 12/1

4. Houston Astros -World Series team, built with just the right ingredients. Nolan come back. 18/1

5. New York Yankees - Defensively is the biggest glaring issue. 18/1

6. Miami Marlins -Need a pitching or hitting lift to get over the hump, one more hitting star that's fundamentally sound. 50/1

7(tie). Arizona Diamondbacks -Small leaks on offense and with the pitching staff but headed in the right direction. 350/1

7(tie). Minnesota Twins -Add some pitching pieces and this is a legit dangerous team. 120/1

8. Tampa Bay Rays -Add some hitting and this is a dangerous team. 35/1




This is just my thoughts on the current season.

i am seeing Yankees at 14 to 1

is Tanaka coming back?

Ralphie Halves wassup man Reds are 100 to 1 right now

same record as Pirates who are 30 to 1

Reds dont need no stinkin homer bailey, guy is overrated anyway

[Ra77er]

My current top 13 as of this moment, ignore the number after, it is my proprietary magical number but it should give you an idea on how much better I rate team x versus team y ~~~

1. LA Dodgers 4.3

2. KC Royals 5.3

3. (tie) St Louis 7.3

3. (tie) Detroit 7.3

4. (tie) Houston 7.6

4. (tie) Tampa Bay 7.6

5. Arizona 9.6

6. Washington 10.6

7. Yes Atlanta 11

8. (tie) Baltimore 11.3

8. (tie) Toronto 11.3

9. NY Mets 12.3

10. Miami 12.6

[STAX]

How do you not have Nationals in the top 3? Team is playing the best all of anyone over the last 3 weeks (16-4 in last 20 games, current 5 game win streak). Giants have won 6 straight, 14 of last 19, and just shut out your number one team 3 games in a row, not enough to make the list? Cubs are on fire, winning 8 of last 10, and just swept the Mets in a 4 game series last week. but wait...

Arguably the worst team in MLB made your list (Marlins) who are on a 7 game losing streak (also lost 14 of last 18), fired their manager, and hired the GM as the new skipper. Toronto made the list. They've lost 9 of 12 and are in the cellar.

Is this a joke or are you serious? I hope you're joking

[STAX]

1. Nationals
2. Royals
3. Cardinals
4. Giants
5. Dodgers
6. Astros
7. Tigers
8. Cubs

[Ra77er]

Stax -

Miami has the second best defensive numbers in baseball which I value highly. Some cannot see that side of baseball and thus would rate Miami much much worse and I understand. The Nats on the otherhand I have rated as bottom tier defensively 20th ish, 3rd in batting and above average pitching at 10ish. I hope you can see what I am looking at when assessing my "top 8" lists.

[Ra77er]

Think of it this way....do you think special teams mean anything in the NFL? Do you factor that in when looking at a matchup? It's no different in baseball.....offense, defense, fielding

[STAX]

Stax -

Miami has the second best defensive numbers in baseball which I value highly. Some cannot see that side of baseball and thus would rate Miami much much worse and I understand. The Nats on the otherhand I have rated as bottom tier defensively 20th ish, 3rd in batting and above average pitching at 10ish. I hope you can see what I am looking at when assessing my "top 8" lists.

Whats the difference in #20 defense and #5 defense? Not much... what difference in #5 hitting and #20? alot... thats where youre making your mistake. Difference in top and bottom of defense is minimal, while difference in top and bottom of hitting and pitching is huge. More so with hitting even.

And with how scoring has fallen dramatically in recent years, hitting now is more important than it ever was. Its where you can gain the greatest advantage. Almost everyone can pitch now... most everyone cant hit for shit, except for a few teams like Tigers/Dodgers/Nats... its the ebbs and flows of MLB... a decade ago everyone could hit and hardly anyone could pitch, and we saw the teams that could pitch would end up being the best teams in the end. Now its getting to the point of being reversed, the teasm that can hit are the best teams now. And by hit I dont mean team batting average.... its scoring, baserunning, manufacturing runs, OBP, etc... Its why the Royals and Giants are so good. They already play defense well, and pitch decent, but they manufacture runs without having a high team BA. Teams like the Nats, Dodgers, and Tigers do it a little differently.

[STAX]

Think of it this way....do you think special teams mean anything in the NFL? Do you factor that in when looking at a matchup? It's no different in baseball.....offense, defense, fielding

you're just putting equal weight on all 3 catagories, when they are not equal at all

also the difference in the tops and bottoms of each catagory is different.

for example, theres bascailly no difference in being ranked #5 in fielding or being ranked #15 in fielding, but if its hitting you're talkin about theres more of a gap.

start weighting your catagories by importance and by difference, you'll get better results

[Big Bear]

D-Backs worth a shot

Patrick Corbin is coming back soon.

[STAX]

The fielding portion is why your rankings are skewed... too much weight on it and not accounting for the small gap. Its why you have teams like Nats and Marlins both ranked close together when in reality they are at the top and bottom. trust me, I'm a math guy, I get the numbers, its like second nature to me. I like to say I have a sixth sense whenit comes to this stuff. I can get a good grasp on it just by glancing at some stats... so I dont focus much of my capping on crunching numbers. I focus more of it on the intangibles.

I've passed 5 levels of college calculus, 2 levels of statistics, and 2 theory of numbers classes. If you can get the numbers down without spending a lot of time on them, you can focus more on the intangibles, which makes for better capping. Not trying to brag, I'm not a pro capper or anything like that. Im good at the actual capping and the numbers but I suck at self control and discipline, which is more important if you wanna be a winning gambler

[Ra77er]

Stax and therein lies the beauty of our handicapping. I do not value hitting over defense or vice versa. Some factor in other components than I do as well. I just prefer those three categories equally weighted as a base when looking at a matchup each day. I then factor in other ingredients such as home/road...current win streak etc when making a wager. Basically we both see it different and it's not your job to force your handicapping ideas on me, only to appreciate another angle much like I wanted to appreciate your list back on the first page.

[Ra77er]

Stop trying to force your ideas, just appreciate others and continue cooking your own picks!! Thanks for better responses though, I didn't give up on you.

[STAX]

You're not getting it though. WEIGHT YOUR CATAGORIES!! Stop taking it personal, and try to learn something. There is useful info on this site from time to time, this is one of those times!!

[Ra77er]

Stax if you were a pro bettor with all of your diplomas or I were a pro bettor from the trailer park then neither of us would be posting on a forum we would be sipping martinis in cancun. Stop trying to fool yourself and just appreciate it for what it is.

[Big Bear]

The fielding portion is why your rankings are skewed... too much weight on it and not accounting for the small gap. Its why you have teams like Nats and Marlins both ranked close together when in reality they are at the top and bottom. trust me, I'm a math guy, I get the numbers, its like second nature to me. I like to say I have a sixth sense whenit comes to this stuff. I can get a good grasp on it just by glancing at some stats... so I dont focus much of my capping on crunching numbers. I focus more of it on the intangibles.

I've passed 5 levels of college calculus, 2 levels of statistics, and 2 theory of numbers classes. If you can get the numbers down without spending a lot of time on them, you can focus more on the intangibles, which makes for better capping. Not trying to brag, I'm not a pro capper or anything like that. Im good at the actual capping and the numbers but I suck at self control and discipline, which is more important if you wanna be a winning gambler

yo stax how hard were those math classes you mentioned?

[STAX]

yo stax how hard were those math classes you mentioned?

Calculus II was the hardest. All anti-derivatives... one problem take an entire page, no calculator allowed except for basic math. Calc III was hard but my professor was a nut-case. One of those guys that is so smart he's stupid. No social skills at all. I couldnt tell you much from that class today, except it was everything we learned in Calc II, but in 3 dimensions (real world stuff). It was kind of the class that you went , ah ha, now I understand how this applies to the real world. But we used a calculator for everything, otherwise one problem would take 4 hours. Differential Equations (calc 4 and 5) was actually kind of easy. Theory of numbers was my favorite, it was very interesting and not hard at all. That and Stats would be the classes to take to help with capping. Took all these classes between 1998 and 2002.