Should I try to middle this? 16 to 1 parlay, last leg is SA/LAC series

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  • STAX
    SBR MVP
    • 11-01-13
    • 3718

    #1
    Should I try to middle this? 16 to 1 parlay, last leg is SA/LAC series
    I think this is a great spot to try and middle... Id love to grab Spurs +3.5 if I can get it at -120 or lower. Current line is Spurs +2 (-110)... I think game is as close to a 50/50 game as possible, and I firmly believe its gonna go down to the wire. Any chance to get Spurs +3.5 at -120? I'd throw $400 on it with a decent shot at hitting both bets, what u all think?

    304448882-1 4/16/15 10:27pm $50.00 $809.00 Pending 8 Team Parlay
    Win 4/18/15 12:35pm NBA Basketball 781 Washington Wizards (Series) +160* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Toronto Raptors (Series)
    Win 4/18/15 3:35pm NBA Basketball 784 Golden State Warriors (Series) -4000* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Pelicans (Series)
    Win 4/18/15 7:05pm NBA Basketball 786 Chicago Bulls (Series) -700* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Milwaukee Bucks (Series)
    Win 4/18/15 9:35pm NBA Basketball 788 Houston Rockets (Series) -280* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Dallas Mavericks (Series)
    Win 4/19/15 3:05pm NBA Basketball 790 Cleveland Cavaliers (Series) -3500* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Boston Celtics (Series)
    Win 4/19/15 5:35pm NBA Basketball 792 Atlanta Hawks (Series) -1250 <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Brooklyn Nets (Series)
    Win 4/19/15 8:05pm NBA Basketball 794 Memphis Grizzlies (Series) -190* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Portland Trail Blazers (Series)
    Pending 4/19/15 10:35pm NBA Basketball 796 Los Angeles Clippers (Series) +145* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs (Series)
    Im not worried about losing the bet, I think trying for a middle here is a huge opportunity... Would you take the 2.5 at -120? Or hold out for 3.5?
  • Jrod124
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-31-09
    • 5622

    #2
    let it ride, it's $50 and u have been hot with these parlays
    Comment
    • sourtwist
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-10-12
      • 9364

      #3
      I would, but there will soon be fukkbags coming into the thread to tell you that you should have left out the play that you are hedging if you didn't like the play to begin with.
      Comment
      • Vegas39
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 09-22-11
        • 30686

        #4
        Unless $50 is life altering let it ride
        Comment
        • MickeyMan
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-20-09
          • 5091

          #5
          Get it live at least don't pay -120 juice on a hedge
          Comment
          • STAX
            SBR MVP
            • 11-01-13
            • 3718

            #6
            OK, #1 its not a hedge. A hedge would be betting SA ML. I want to win BOTH BETS!! Thats the goal here...
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388179

              #7
              stax play to win
              Comment
              • STAX
                SBR MVP
                • 11-01-13
                • 3718

                #8
                A little math:

                I think this is a true 50/50 game... I think a good 25% of the time this is a 3 point game either way. So 12.5% of the time S.A. loses by 3 pts or less.


                1. Letting it ride:

                50% of the time I lose $50
                50% of the time I win $809

                +809 - 50 = +759 * (.5) = +379.50

                EV = +$379.50


                2. Middle by betting $480 on Spurs +3.5 at (-120): $480 to win $400

                37.5% of the time I win the parlay (+809) and lose the middle bet (-480)= +329
                12.5% of the time I win BOTH BETS: (+809) + (+400) = +1209
                50% of the time I win the middle bet (+400) and lose the parlay (-50): +350

                (+329) * (.375)= +123
                (+350) * (.5)= +175
                (+1209) *(.125)= +151

                123+175+151=+449

                EV =+449

                Thats a $70 difference in EV...
                Comment
                • STAX
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-01-13
                  • 3718

                  #9
                  Any thoughts on me believing this is a 3 point game 25% of the time? Too high or too low of a percentage?
                  Comment
                  • STAX
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-01-13
                    • 3718

                    #10
                    even if we change it to a 3 point game only 10% of the time:

                    50% I win the middle bet (+400) and lose the parlay (-50): (+350)
                    45% I win the parlay (+809) and lose the middle (-480): (+329)
                    5% I win both bets: (+1209)

                    (+350) * (.5) = +175
                    (+329) * (.45)= +148
                    (+1209) * (.05)= +60

                    175+148+60=383

                    EV= +383

                    Still a $5 increase in EV...
                    Comment
                    • Seto
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-16-11
                      • 12906

                      #11
                      Originally posted by sourtwist
                      I would, but there will soon be fukkbags coming into the thread to tell you that you should have left out the play that you are hedging if you didn't like the play to begin with.
                      Nah those "fukkbags" wouldn't really have a valid point. That point only works for guys wanting to hedge the last leg of a parlay that they knew would be the last leg from the getgo. Here we didn't know which series would end last.
                      Comment
                      • Seto
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-16-11
                        • 12906

                        #12
                        Originally posted by STAX
                        Any thoughts on me believing this is a 3 point game 25% of the time? Too high or too low of a percentage?
                        Way too high to me when you factor in intentional fouling at the end.

                        I understand the situation, I would be wanting to get greedy and get the middle too. It's also a case of if you don't get it you can sort of live with telling yourself that you missed out on a few bucks that you would've gotten with a normal hedge. But if you do a normal hedge and could've middled, you go crazy. It's silly but part of gambling is trying to keep your sanity too I guess.

                        Good luck.
                        Comment
                        • The Kraken
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-25-11
                          • 28918

                          #13
                          Fukking gamble STAX!!!!

                          i say go for it

                          we live for this shit
                          Comment
                          • tony_come
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 03-31-10
                            • 21695

                            #14
                            Originally posted by STAX
                            A little math:

                            I think this is a true 50/50 game... I think a good 25% of the time this is a 3 point game either way. So 12.5% of the time S.A. loses by 3 pts or less.


                            1. Letting it ride:

                            50% of the time I lose $50
                            50% of the time I win $809

                            +809 - 50 = +759 * (.5) = +379.50

                            EV = +$379.50


                            2. Middle by betting $480 on Spurs +3.5 at (-120): $480 to win $400

                            37.5% of the time I win the parlay (+809) and lose the middle bet (-480)= +329
                            12.5% of the time I win BOTH BETS: (+809) + (+400) = +1209
                            50% of the time I win the middle bet (+400) and lose the parlay (-50): +350

                            (+329) * (.375)= +123
                            (+350) * (.5)= +175
                            (+1209) *(.125)= +151

                            123+175+151=+449

                            EV =+449

                            Thats a $70 difference in EV...
                            We should ask you for winners, not the other way around
                            Comment
                            • STAX
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-01-13
                              • 3718

                              #15
                              Spurs are now +3 (-110)... I can get Spurs +3.5 (-120) right now, and Im gonna do it... Trying to middle this bitch... The more I think about it the more I know this is a no-brainer middle opportunity...

                              wish me luck
                              Comment
                              • JameisBrady
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-15-15
                                • 1023

                                #16
                                damn, I wanted the clippers to win but now my +350 series bet on them is toast thanks to this mush --
                                Comment
                                • Samfourteen
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 02-18-12
                                  • 239

                                  #17
                                  Good luck Stax. Good shit
                                  Comment
                                  • goduke
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-17-10
                                    • 11580

                                    #18
                                    i would hedge now live. clippers without chris paul
                                    Comment
                                    • STAX
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-01-13
                                      • 3718

                                      #19
                                      Middle looking to come down to the wire!
                                      Comment
                                      • Samfourteen
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-18-12
                                        • 239

                                        #20
                                        Ur gonna be the shit when this hits!!!
                                        Comment
                                        • STAX
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-01-13
                                          • 3718

                                          #21
                                          Tried to log into 5Dimes and throw $50 on this going to overtime but site must be really busy with fight about to start... taking forever to log in. Not betting it, but I think this is going OT... probably +400 or so but oh well
                                          Comment
                                          • STAX
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-01-13
                                            • 3718

                                            #22
                                            please hold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                            Comment
                                            • STAX
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-01-13
                                              • 3718

                                              #23
                                              BABOOOOOOMM!!!!

                                              great feeling...
                                              Comment
                                              • actiondan
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-16-10
                                                • 3450

                                                #24
                                                Fuk ya, nice hit
                                                Comment
                                                • badgerguy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-21-13
                                                  • 2281

                                                  #25
                                                  Good job!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • badgerguy
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-21-13
                                                    • 2281

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by STAX
                                                    Tried to log into 5Dimes and throw $50 on this going to overtime but site must be really busy with fight about to start... taking forever to log in. Not betting it, but I think this is going OT... probably +400 or so but oh well
                                                    Getting internal error on Bovada as well. Betonline seems to be working fine.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • STAX
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-01-13
                                                      • 3718

                                                      #27
                                                      thanks guys... thinking of throwing all 1200 on Mayweather in 12 rounds... pays about even money...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • badgerguy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-21-13
                                                        • 2281

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by STAX
                                                        thanks guys... thinking of throwing all 1200 on Mayweather in 12 rounds... pays about even money...
                                                        GO GO GO! Im on it as well, although for well less than $1200
                                                        Comment
                                                        • STAX
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-01-13
                                                          • 3718

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by badgerguy
                                                          GO GO GO! Im on it as well, although for well less than $1200
                                                          307493064-1 5/2/15 11:00pm $859.00 $885.00 Pending 5/2/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 111 Mayweather Jr wins by 12 round decision +103* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Not Mayweather Jr by 12 round decision
                                                          Fuggit...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • The Kraken
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-25-11
                                                            • 28918

                                                            #30
                                                            GL buddy

                                                            Probably the best bet unless you got in on Mayweather very early
                                                            Comment
                                                            • STAX
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-01-13
                                                              • 3718

                                                              #31
                                                              Thanks, I dont know shit about boxing, just think Mayweather wins. never lost vrs a guy with 5 losses... and I know Mayweather title bouts usually go the distance
                                                              Comment
                                                              • GunShard
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 03-05-10
                                                                • 10031

                                                                #32
                                                                Nice bet.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • The Giant
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-21-12
                                                                  • 21480

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Great job, Stax.

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • STAX
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-01-13
                                                                    • 3718

                                                                    #34
                                                                    what happens if fight ends in a draw? bet is a push?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • STAX
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-01-13
                                                                      • 3718

                                                                      #35
                                                                      this has got to be a mayweather win... draw at worst but even that would be a crime
                                                                      Comment
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