Does anyone do research based on line histories?

[Mudcat]

I am looking to compare notes on procedures with anyone who does.

SBR's archives had a major hiccup a few weeks back and their NHL and NBA archives got scrambled and now contain a lot of bad information. For my purposes, it rendered the archives unusable. Certainly I would not trust anything from there without at least double-checking somewhere else.

I am attempting to determine how widespread the problem is. I don't know if it has affected other leagues or previous seasons. I am waiting for answers on that.



I am wondering where people are gathering this type of historical line data. Alternate sources. I am basically talking about the stuff on SBR Odds. Spreads, Totals and Moneylines for the bigger leagues.


Any leads are appreciated.

[RogueScholar]

I've never used it since I'm just a recreational bettor and I'm happy at just hitting 50%, but have you checked out ATSDatabase.com? I think they're one of the industry leaders in this type of data.

If you have any tips for a rec bettor Mudcat, I'd love to hear them. I need serious help with baseball, I can't stand the sport, so I don't watch it, hence I never pick winners...

[Mudcat]

Thanks for the tip. I looked at and phoned ATSDatabase. Sounds like they don't quite have what I want. Basically they have archives but just the closing lines from Bookmaker for all the games.

You have to pay right from the start. They won't even give you, like, a one hour trial so you can look around and see if it's worth your while to sign up. But based on what the guy said, it's not quite on target for me.



As for tips on baseball betting . . .

For one thing, I don't watch baseball either. After 3 minutes I am so bored I am looking for the clicker. For the way I play, it is totally unnecessary.

As to strategy, I find that bettors don't understand home field advantage in baseball and that effects the lines. Bettors over-react to small perceived advantages in the starting pitchers and under-react to home field advantage. Which is to say there is often value on HOME teams, particularly when the game is close to a pick 'em, particularly if the line has improved from openers, particularly in early season.

Likewise UNDERS can be good bets. Again, particularly if the line has improved from Openers and particularly in early season. Generally the central range is where I keep my eyes open. Like totals in the 8-9 range National League, 8.5-9.5 in the AL. Thereabouts.

I'm not saying that betting those situations blindly will yield long-term positive results. Those are just some guidelines I keep in mind in deciding what pond to fish from, particularly for the first few months of the season. It pays to watch for pitchers getting too much credit for their reputation rather than their current level of performance.

And I will further complicate this by saying I don't start betting until about 20 games into the season.

Sorry if this is all too hazy but I really don't like to post a lot of info on public forums for a few reasons. (And due to some recent oddness, I consider PM's here to basically be public.)

Here's one clear, rock-solid tip I don't mind giving. Line shopping is everything - and you've got to have Matchbook for MLB.

[LT Profits]

Hmmm.

I've always felt that home field advantage is OVER rated in baseball, and that it is not as important as in other sports.

[LT Profits]

Agree totally on the Unders though.

[RogueScholar]

Mudcat, thanks for pointing me in the right direction. Being a big fan of the other three major North American sports I do a lot of fundamental handicapping in those sports because I know the athletes, I know the teams, and I can generally parlay that familiarity into finding value in which to make a few bucks on.

What I got from your post was that I can take an entirely different approach to baseball and become a system bettor. Not betting every home team, or every under, but using a database to isolate quantifiable conditions for a matchup that not only backtest well but also make logical sense. Thanks for pointing me in a different direction.

I feel you regarding the complete lack of privacy anymore on this forum. Certainly it's somebody else's site, so you can't expect them to keep your secrets as you would, but lately there has been a notable de-emphasis on giving posters enough respect to carry out their affairs between each other without reading every word transmitted through the site. It's a shame and I think they're suffering for it with many posters finding ways to network outside of SBR.

[onthewhat]

Something at SBR is fukked up? No way

[MonkeyF0cker]

I do, Mudcat. However, it certainly isn't my only method of handicapping games. In fact, it's merely a component of it. I guess I'm not sure what you are looking for exactly. Are you looking for a credible source for line histories? Are you looking for a reliable method of acquiring line history data outside of dependency on a third party? Or are you simply looking to find insight on how others utilize this information?

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you want reliable line history data, I would suggest a Don Best subscription. I wrote a program that polls XML feeds and scrapes lines from several books and stores them in a database for my own records so I don't need to depend on other services. However, if your Internet goes down or your computer crashes for some reason, it's always good to have a backup plan like DB, VegasInsider, or SBR Odds. As for how I utilize that information, that's an extremely involved discussion.

[Masu485]

I believe Covers.com has that same kind of historical data as SBRlines does, although I dont think you can view the College Basketball AND I only think it's a few months old (ie. dont think you can review last season's baseball).

Vegas Insider does have what I think you're looking for, BUT it doesn't track big books like Bookmaker, TheGreek, or 5Dimes, although it does have Pinnacle.

I noticed the SBR Archive is messed up too. Home teams are listed as away and vice versa, Negative spreads flipped with positive ones, etc... Also I've noticed lots of Error pages now, and obscenely long load times.

Just a couple of months ago, it worked relatively fine, couple of problems with it blocking my IP, but otherwise fine.

[Mudcat]

Thanks for all the feedback. I will look into all those suggestions and possibly follow up here.

I guess I'm not sure what you are looking for exactly. Are you looking for a credible source for line histories? Are you looking for a reliable method of acquiring line history data outside of dependency on a third party? Or are you simply looking to find insight on how others utilize this information?

At this point I am looking for a credible source of line histories. What SBR purports to have is great - ML's, spreads and Totals from several sportsbooks for the major North American leagues - except unfortunately it has become somewhat scrambled and that is clearly no good for this type of research.

I hope I don't seem like I'm taking cheapshots at SBR. My only desire is to continue doing my work, not to shine a light on any problems here. I hold out hope that they will get the archives straightened away - at least going forward.

So once again, thanks for all the input and suggestions.