Are free picks really worth it on tout sites-- Here's what I've found
The question is are free picks on tout sites really worth it?
Do they add value in the long run?
I've use one as an example in the spreadsheet attached. The data I have is all the free picks posted by specific cappers between jan 1 2007 and march 29 2009 on xxxxxxx.com. Also note that I've only listed cappers that were marked as qualified to sell picks on thier site. So even if you like another capper, and he is listing his picks, but not qualified to sell - you're SOL. They won't even post it for free even though the cappers are not getting paid since they are not qualified. Go figure!!
getting back....
If you look at the total count column and notice for any cappers listing over 100 total plays per sport type, very few even make it close to the 54% mark and most hover anywhere between 46-53%. Note: higher percentages don't always mean having a positive run. But if you look at the the net gain column, it speaks for itself. This is like playing spin the bottle, with some nasty surprises
I'm not saying this is the same for all tout sites but what's amazing is if you look at the home pages you'll see pretty nice streaks.
Check out the free picks section, they'll even order the cappers by percentages for the month.
Now here's the million dollar question or should that be questions -
1 .Do short term streaks mean anything ?
2. Do records only posted over a short period of time mean anything?
I don't think so. Tracking someone for a month or two while they post only 20 picks during that time frame may not mean much, hell... even 50 may not mean much.
However, note that there is a difference if a specialist who only releases 150-200 picks a season but can achieve the same results season after season. I don't group these people in the same boat; These cappers are the ones that make a real difference in your bankroll and I do mean in a very positive way..
. If only I could handicap like them ....sigh....well.
In conclusion I feel these freebies posted on tout sites are meant to lure people in, by showing excellent short term runs. I don't mean to generalize but that seems to be case with some of the tout sites that I've visited, and of course with xxxxxxxx.com in particular.
To be fair - Thier non free picks are fantastic (Thier free stuff sucks ass) - I've tracked them while paying for them so I can vouch for that; It was a big dent in my outgoings
. However there is a caveat to saying they are fantastic; Thier picks would be fantastic if they were reasonably priced and not some gross amount like $10 a pick. It's just too much of a risk; so if you are a high roller then it probably would be worth it as long as you don't mind taking the risk that they could occasionally have a bad year 
ps: If you're wondering how I calculated the net gain amounts
on negative lines a win is always 100 and a loss is whatever the value of that line was. On positive lines the win is whatever the value of the line is while the loss is 100.
eg: a -108 win would result in 100 gain while a loss on a -108 line would amount to a -108 loss.
a +105 win would result in 105 gain while a loss on a +108 line would amount to a 100 loss.
I guess most of you know this but the explanation is for the benefit of newbies who read this, such as myself.
Do they add value in the long run?
I've use one as an example in the spreadsheet attached. The data I have is all the free picks posted by specific cappers between jan 1 2007 and march 29 2009 on xxxxxxx.com. Also note that I've only listed cappers that were marked as qualified to sell picks on thier site. So even if you like another capper, and he is listing his picks, but not qualified to sell - you're SOL. They won't even post it for free even though the cappers are not getting paid since they are not qualified. Go figure!!
getting back....
If you look at the total count column and notice for any cappers listing over 100 total plays per sport type, very few even make it close to the 54% mark and most hover anywhere between 46-53%. Note: higher percentages don't always mean having a positive run. But if you look at the the net gain column, it speaks for itself. This is like playing spin the bottle, with some nasty surprises
I'm not saying this is the same for all tout sites but what's amazing is if you look at the home pages you'll see pretty nice streaks.
Check out the free picks section, they'll even order the cappers by percentages for the month.
Now here's the million dollar question or should that be questions -
1 .Do short term streaks mean anything ?
2. Do records only posted over a short period of time mean anything?
I don't think so. Tracking someone for a month or two while they post only 20 picks during that time frame may not mean much, hell... even 50 may not mean much.
However, note that there is a difference if a specialist who only releases 150-200 picks a season but can achieve the same results season after season. I don't group these people in the same boat; These cappers are the ones that make a real difference in your bankroll and I do mean in a very positive way..
. If only I could handicap like them ....sigh....well.In conclusion I feel these freebies posted on tout sites are meant to lure people in, by showing excellent short term runs. I don't mean to generalize but that seems to be case with some of the tout sites that I've visited, and of course with xxxxxxxx.com in particular.
To be fair - Thier non free picks are fantastic (Thier free stuff sucks ass) - I've tracked them while paying for them so I can vouch for that; It was a big dent in my outgoings
. However there is a caveat to saying they are fantastic; Thier picks would be fantastic if they were reasonably priced and not some gross amount like $10 a pick. It's just too much of a risk; so if you are a high roller then it probably would be worth it as long as you don't mind taking the risk that they could occasionally have a bad year ps: If you're wondering how I calculated the net gain amounts
on negative lines a win is always 100 and a loss is whatever the value of that line was. On positive lines the win is whatever the value of the line is while the loss is 100.
eg: a -108 win would result in 100 gain while a loss on a -108 line would amount to a -108 loss.
a +105 win would result in 105 gain while a loss on a +108 line would amount to a 100 loss.
I guess most of you know this but the explanation is for the benefit of newbies who read this, such as myself.
