Wofford (+7.5) can beat Arkansas

[t-wizzle]

The Terriers are a much smaller team and if Arkansas is smart they'll pound down low but the Razorbacks play an up tempo style and that plays right into Wofford's hands.

Statistically Wofford doesn't really do anything that blows you away but they run good action on offense. Lots of off the ball screens that lead to open looks. If they're knocking down their shots, this is a very good upset possibility.

[TPowell]

Wofford is easily the worst 12 seed, but Arky is also probably the weakest 5 seed and not very smart

[TPowell]

not that I contributed anything there. Carry on

[jjgold]

no

lol Wizzle put down Coors

[DOM_Toretto]

So there was an ESPN article with stats about common trends for upsets in the tournament over the past 15 years. I expanded that knowledge and ran stats for this year's tourny teams and this game provided an interesting story.

Wofford is categorized as a Perimeter Killer (low ORB, hi steals, hi 3pt %).

Arkansas is categorized as a Gambling Giant (hi ORB, low DRB, hi forced turnovers).

Gambling Giants are highly susceptible to upsets by Perimeter Killers.

Study shows Arkansas likely to be upset by Wofford, and interestingly also shows VCU likely to be 'upset' by Ohio State.

[jtoler]

Wofford does run very good sets.

[TPowell]

So there was an ESPN article with stats about common trends for upsets in the tournament over the past 15 years. I expanded that knowledge and ran stats for this year's tourny teams and this game provided an interesting story.

Wofford is categorized as a Perimeter Killer (low ORB, hi steals, hi 3pt %).

Arkansas is categorized as a Gambling Giant (hi ORB, low DRB, hi forced turnovers).

Gambling Giants are highly susceptible to upsets by Perimeter Killers.

Study shows Arkansas likely to be upset by Wofford, and interestingly also shows VCU likely to be 'upset' by Ohio State.

link? That is shockingly good work from ESPN

[KRIT]

Arky is all over the map, Wofford and the points most likely for me. As for the bracket, haven't decided on that yet.

[smoke a bowl]

So there was an ESPN article with stats about common trends for upsets in the tournament over the past 15 years. I expanded that knowledge and ran stats for this year's tourny teams and this game provided an interesting story.

Wofford is categorized as a Perimeter Killer (low ORB, hi steals, hi 3pt %).

Arkansas is categorized as a Gambling Giant (hi ORB, low DRB, hi forced turnovers).

Gambling Giants are highly susceptible to upsets by Perimeter Killers.

Study shows Arkansas likely to be upset by Wofford, and interestingly also shows VCU likely to be 'upset' by Ohio State.

Hard to call Oh St an upset when they are a 3.5 pt favorite.

[DOM_Toretto]

Hard to call Oh St an upset when they are a 3.5 pt favorite.

Hence the quotations. Seed-wise it's an upset.

[Snowball]

Razorbacks by dd.

[t-wizzle]

Ohio State will beat VCU.

[Ralphie Halves]

link? That is shockingly good work from ESPN

Yeah, no doubt. From a network that leans on their BPI and other awful in-house strength ratings.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

I have been betting on Wofford all year. They fit into my betting patterns well because they are generally un-phased by hostile environments. Fukkin road warriors this team is.

Granted, Arky is a serious step up as far as competition is concerned, but I think Sizzler isn't acting insane here. Wofford is a quality squad. Arkansauce lost to Clemson and Tennessee on the road this year, both teams I would say are roughly at the same level of skill as Wofford.

I took Arky in my bracket, but I thought twice about it. Wofford is not some weak conference tourney winner with no business in the tourney. Wofford has nothing to lose here and everything to gain.

The Sauce cannot expect to cruise through the round of 64. Wofford is weaker than most of the other #12 Buffalo and #12SFA but the are better than Wyoming in my opinion.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

best 12 over 5 upset chance:

UB BULLS over WV.

Agreed. Bulls are heavily underrated.

[DOM_Toretto]

Agreed. Bulls are heavily underrated.

Freshmen guards will CRUMBLE at West Va's full court, in-your-face, double or triple coverage press. Without a doubt in my mind.

[Snowball]

Freshmen guards will CRUMBLE at West Va's full court, in-your-face, double or triple coverage press. Without a doubt in my mind.

a healthy WV will blast them. Outcoach them also.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Freshmen guards will CRUMBLE at West Va's full court, in-your-face, double or triple coverage press. Without a doubt in my mind.

Yeah I hadn't researched much before running my mouth.

What I really meant is that Buffalo is good.

WVU is very very good though and I will think long and hard about laying the points here.

[frogsrangers]

Wofford is good but their only chance is to control the game by taking care of the basketball. They will face a style they haven't faced, and if they have it wasn't against a team with as good of athletes as Arkansas.

Basically the winner of this game is whose style prevails. If Wofford takes care of the ball and slows down the game, they win. If Arkansas can speed up the game and force turnovers, they win.

VCU vs. Stephen F. Austin last year is a mirror image of this game. VCU the press team that plays fast and forces turnovers, and SFA the slow paced team that takes care of the ball and runs the shot clock. SFA won.

Wofford's weakness is size, and thankfully vs. Arkansas that won't be exploited. If I Had to bet this game I'd put a small wager on the Wofford 7.5

[t-wizzle]

Arkansas doesn't fullcourt press. They look to push the tempo but they are not a VCU/WVU type of pressing team.

[2daBank]

a healthy WV will blast them. Outcoach them also.

seems as if you on every favorite as all your post are "higher seeded team will blast them". oh and "provo winning it all".

[2daBank]

Yeah I hadn't researched much before running my mouth.

What I really meant is that Buffalo is good.

WVU is very very good though and I will think long and hard about laying the points here.

wvu is not all that good, complete misnomer imo. they press and throw a bunch of bodies at you, and they grab a lot of offensive boards. outside of that they well below avg shooters, below avg defending in the half court, below avg iq, dont protect the defensive glass. you were right in your 1st statement, buffalo will beat them. that pg is good and this team went inot uk and were up at half, i doubt they quivering at the likes of a overrated wvu..

[TPowell]

wvu is not all that good, complete misnomer imo. they press and throw a bunch of bodies at you, and they grab a lot of offensive boards. outside of that they well below avg shooters, below avg defending in the half court, below avg iq, dont protect the defensive glass. you were right in your 1st statement, buffalo will beat them. that pg is good and this team went inot uk and were up at half, i doubt they quivering at the likes of a overrated wvu..

great post, another key thing about that game. West Virginia fouls more than just about anyone in the country and Buffalo is a team that gets to the line a lot anyway. They shoot around 72% as a team and they should get a bunch of chances in this game. West Virginia has to find a way to score the ball, but Buffalo doesn't foul much so they'll have to take advantage of a pedestrian Buffalo defense (ranked around 100 in the country). If they can't do that, Buffalo WILL win this game

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Arkansas -7.5 is the bet of the first round; they finished up 10-3 with two of the losses to Kentucky whereas Wofford lost by 29 to Duke, 33 to WVU and 15 to Stanford (all on the road). Arkansas wins easily.

[Snowball]

seems as if you on every favorite as all your post are "higher seeded team will blast them". oh and "provo winning it all".

no, I like Hampton as a dog, and Ole Miss is a dog, and Georgia (not State).

[t-wizzle]

Arkansas -7.5 is the bet of the first round; they finished up 10-3 with two of the losses to Kentucky whereas Wofford lost by 29 to Duke, 33 to WVU and 15 to Stanford (all on the road). Arkansas wins easily.

All you did was look at each team's schedule and then threw out a lazy contrived reason about why Arkansas is the bet of the first round.

If you disagree then that's fine but don't just reread a schedule.

[DOM_Toretto]

link? That is shockingly good work from ESPN

I tried to dig for the link but couldn't find it. It was a special feature blog a couple months ago which provided the categorization criteria and the historical data. I then took that basis and ran numbers for all current tournament teams to come up with the two glaring 'upsets' (defined by seeds) of Wofford and Ohio State. Other matchups present certain upset potentials, but not as strong.

[frogsrangers]

Arkansas -7.5 is the bet of the first round; they finished up 10-3 with two of the losses to Kentucky whereas Wofford lost by 29 to Duke, 33 to WVU and 15 to Stanford (all on the road). Arkansas wins easily.

In 2012 Norfolk State lost to NAIA Elizabeth City at home by 12... no way they can beat 30-win Big 12 champion Missouri.

And in 2013 how did Florida Gulf Coast think they could make the Sweet 16 after losing to VCU and Duke by 20+ in non conference play?

Honestly handicapping a game by looking at how the team fared in November non conference games, especially ones played on the road, is never a good way to go. Teams improve(or decline) as the year goes on.

[Big Bear]

i have not seen a wofford game all year.

have you seen them play T-Wizzle or is this play based off line movement or something?

[TPowell]

I tried to dig for the link but couldn't find it. It was a special feature blog a couple months ago which provided the categorization criteria and the historical data. I then took that basis and ran numbers for all current tournament teams to come up with the two glaring 'upsets' (defined by seeds) of Wofford and Ohio State. Other matchups present certain upset potentials, but not as strong.

I found it. Google slow killers espn or high possession killers espn

[t-wizzle]

i have not seen a wofford game all year.

have you seen them play T-Wizzle or is this play based off line movement or something?

It's pretty obvious in my original post that I've watched them.

[Big Bear]

Ohio State will beat VCU.

okay now I know you don't watch the games bruh

if you had watched any ohio state basketball lately you would not be saying that.

there is nothing to like about this team.

[DOM_Toretto]

okay now I know you don't watch the games bruh

if you had watched any ohio state basketball lately you would not be saying that.

there is nothing to like about this team.

Except for a top 5 guard in the country

[Big Bear]

Deangello Russell is timid and afraid to be the go to guy.

He waits until they get down 10 to take a shot sometimes.

Loving didn't score until only 5 minutes left in the game.

they have no identity, they have no plan. They are hopeless.

[2daBank]

okay now I know you don't watch the games bruh

if you had watched any ohio state basketball lately you would not be saying that.

there is nothing to like about this team.

against vcu there is. with webber i still thought they were very beatable if you handled the press, w/o weber they really struggle in the half court, osu has the best player on the court by a mile and plays the most important position in the tourney.. they not going real far but they can def beat a vcu team who been avg since losing their best player and imo put all their energy into winning a A-10 title after failing to do so the last couple years..