Anyone on ESPN.com has a perfect bracket+3000

[STAX]

think this is a good bet:

[shaunovery]

think this is a good bet:

You're joking , it's virtually impossible and at 30/1 not for me

[newguy]

I'll take your action on that stax

[Domestic]

Won't see a perfect bracket in our lifetimes.

[stevenash]

It's never been done, it will never be done.

Odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
Yeah, that kind of long shot.

9.200.000.000.000.000.000 to 1

Good luck

[Big Bear]

It's never been done, it will never be done.

Odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
Yeah, that kind of long shot.

9.200.000.000.000.000.000 to 1

Good luck

thats bc in most years there is parity. This year the talent gap is so huge this tournament is actually extremely predictible.

Kentucky to win is +105

the next favorite after that is +950

Kentucky is almost a guarantee to win the tournament so everyone should have the winner correct so basically it all comes down to the first weekend.

If there are a handful of people with a perfect bracket remaining after the first weekend then they are in real good shape to close the deal.

This is the easiest most predictable March Madness tournament we have ever had.

Bookies going to get Tea-bagged.

[Big Bear]

After the first 2 rounds there probably won't be any upsets.

I could see VCU upsetting Arizona though in the round of 32.

[stevenash]

Kentucky at even money to win the tournament is hardly a guarantee.
The true odds of Kentucky winning out right now is 49 percent.

Do you understand math?
Do you understand factoring?
Any of that good shit?

Look at the opening lines.
Of the games already posted, (for arguments sake, I am going to define a 'pick' as any game 3.5 or under)
There are twelve games already posted that are pretty much a 'pick' (lines of 3.5 or less)
You would have to nail all 12 of those games, and I'm not even mentioning the couple of long shots that could upset.
It's about 4000 to 1 just to get those 12 games right in the first weekend alone.

Bookies going to get tea bagged?
Good one.

Books got tea bagged once in modern history, Pitt / Dallas Black Sunday Super Bowl.
And the books recovered from that just nice.

Predicatable huh?
Give me the winner of the Purdue / Cincinnatti game alone, before you go sweeping the board.

[LT Profits]

One of the worst bets in the history of our lifetime, but if you have a lot of money and this is a two-way line with a "No" option, the "No" is a LOCK, a word I NEVER use but it is appropriate here.

[stevenash]

67 games are played in this tournament, think about it.
My personal best (against the line) is 14 in a row.
I picked 14 straight winners once in my life about 15 years ago.

[Big Bear]

most years there are atleast 5 teams that a shot at winning it all.

i think we can all agree if there was ever a year somebody was going to do a perfect bracket its this year.

There is a good reason warren buffett is not offering 1 billion dollars to anyone gets a perfect bracket this year.

its bc he is scared.

[LT Profits]

67 games are played in this tournament, think about it.
My personal best (against the line) is 14 in a row.
I picked 14 straight winners once in my life about 15 years ago.

63 games in brackets, not that that changes our point.

[stevenash]

63 games in brackets, not that that changes our point.

Correct, I included the four extra this week, but yeah, 63.

[stevenash]

most years there are atleast 5 teams that a shot at winning it all.

i think we can all agree if there was ever a year somebody was going to do a perfect bracket its this year.

There is a good reason warren buffett is not offering 1 billion dollars to anyone gets a perfect bracket this year.

its bc he is scared.

Buffet is not afraid, nobody is going to have a perfect bracket, the odds are beyond astronomical.

I just heard three talking heads in the last hour telling everybody on ESPN to just put Kentucky in the final.
What happens when a Maryland or a Notre Dame, or one of the other four or five teams that have enough talent to beat Kentucy upsets them?

Does Vegas still get tea bagged?

63 games, if you went to college tell me the odds of getting the outcome of each and every game correct?
Then get back to me if you think that number is acheivable.

I know the number, do you?

[smitch124]

To assure a winner on this bet every human being on the planet needs to fill out one bracket a second for 42 years.

[bsutphi]

If you're so confident in Kentucky winning it all, take all the money you would have put on this silly prop bet, and throw it on Kentucky at +105 or whatever it is. That's a much better bet

[daneblazer]

You would need a year where most of the chalk goes to the sweet 16, elite 8, & final 4.

No Florida Gulf Coast, George Masons, or Wichita State's making deep runs. If all that fell into place, it's possible...

but it never does.

[trytrytry]

think this is a good bet:

Had to check my calendar for what date it was when I read this.....

[STAX]

the 92 quintillion to 1 odds are wrong, that is assuming every game is 50-50. half of the 63 games are gimmes, and maybe only 25% of them are tough to predict a winner. I also think this year is the easiest year to predict winners in a long time. Go easy on the upsets this year. There's about 20 teams with a chance to go to the final four and maybe a handful that can win it all.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

There is a good reason warren buffett is not offering 1 billion dollars to anyone gets a perfect bracket this year.

its bc he is scared.

I think Buffett just isn't paying attention this year because Creighton not in tourney.

Dougie McBuckets was the grandson he never had.

[jtoler]

Should be +1000000000.

[thetrinity]

You would need a year where most of the chalk goes to the sweet 16, elite 8, & final 4.

No Florida Gulf Coast, George Masons, or Wichita State's making deep runs. If all that fell into place, it's possible...

but it never does.

danes right the only real prayer of this happening is that the first two rounds are straight chalk, like all 6 seeds or better. then you need all chalk from there and kentucky winning

[Ralphie Halves]

What's crazy is if a pretty intelligent bettor like STAX likes it at 30-1, and he wasn't being sarcastic, it will probably get action from the neanderthals. Unreal.

I want to run an offshore book so bad now. All of the odds will be futures, so they'll be rapey as fukk, but nobody will ever realize it. Sharps won't want to play there, so no worries on that. We'll even offer killer bonuses, who cares at that point?

It's a license to print money!

[Robber]

Lol


I'd give you 100/1

No chance

[Ghenghis Kahn]

What's crazy is if a pretty intelligent bettor like STAX likes it at 30-1, and he wasn't being sarcastic, it will probably get action from the neanderthals. Unreal.

I want to run an offshore book so bad now. All of the odds will be futures, so they'll be rapey as fukk, but nobody will ever realize it. Sharps won't want to play there, so no worries on that. We'll even offer killer bonuses, who cares at that point?

It's a license to print money!

hey ralphie don't knock on neanderthals pal. if you're european or african, you might have neanderthal dna, no joke.

[Ralphie Halves]

hey ralphie don't knock on neanderthals pal. if you're european or african, you might have neanderthal dna, no joke.

They did invent fire and domestic violence. Not so bad I guess.

[stevenash]

the 92 quintillion to 1 odds are wrong, that is assuming every game is 50-50. half of the 63 games are gimmes, and maybe only 25% of them are tough to predict a winner. I also think this year is the easiest year to predict winners in a long time. Go easy on the upsets this year. There's about 20 teams with a chance to go to the final four and maybe a handful that can win it all.

I understand what you are saying, some games are not even up on a money line, I get that.

However, when the question posed is "What are the odds of you picking the winner of 63 games straight up", the answer is 1 in 9.2 followed by 17 zero's.

[STAX]

more like, "what are the odds you can predict a coin toss 63 times in a row?" Except none of the games are coin tosses, save a few. I think 30 to 1 is a good price. I think someone will have a perfect bracket on ESPN in the next 30 years... plus I think this year is pretty easy year to predict, I could be way off, who knows.

[stevenash]

more like, "what are the odds you can predict a coin toss 63 times in a row?" Except none of the games are coin tosses, save a few. I think 30 to 1 is a good price. I think someone will have a perfect bracket on ESPN in the next 30 years... plus I think this year is pretty easy year to predict, I could be way off, who knows.

No disrespect, I like you, don't take this the wrong way, 30 to 1 odds are atrocious odds.

[Robber]

more like, "what are the odds you can predict a coin toss 63 times in a row?" Except none of the games are coin tosses, save a few. I think 30 to 1 is a good price. I think someone will have a perfect bracket on ESPN in the next 30 years... plus I think this year is pretty easy year to predict, I could be way off, who knows.

You're way off

Odds should be at least 200/1

[Ralphie Halves]

200/1 is terrible terrible terrible odds too. See, I can run a book, make 200/1 odds on something that is probably a million times more unlikely, and I'll still get people excited. I'm moving to Antigua.

And don't look at it like you have to "get x amount of games right in a row", because it's way more difficult than that. Picking 63 games in a row is actually way easier than the reality. Picking 63 games in a row would happen if you always knew who was playing each other. You don't, so it's exponentially harder.

[LT Profits]

Even if all 63 games are -300 odds, odds would be over 7 million to 1.

[STAX]

Even if all 63 games are -300 odds, odds would be over 7 million to 1.

good post, how many brackets are usually filled out on ESPN? Basically we are going to need a year where no 12+ seeds make it out of the 1st weekend, and no 5+ seeds make the final four... If this happens, and no miracle happens (like a 16 seed winning), there will be a perfect bracket...

[STAX]

i was in 69th percentile last year, and was ranked 3,373,557... so about 11 million brackets filled out?

[stevenash]

^
Closer to 20 million