When Betting Baseball...I think it's smarter to bet run line on Favs and ML on dogs

**fiveteamer** · 04-06-09, 11:32 AM

Whatever you do you will lose in the end unless you made it and Sammy you did not fukking make it.

**Chi_archie** · 04-06-09, 11:33 AM

just take 75% and above home dogs... and pick your spots with the favs beyond that... fuk the run lines.

run lines are sucker bets

**SamsNCharge99** · 04-06-09, 11:34 AM

fiver, it's not about making it or not making it.....

it's about making money...this isn't a "SYSTEM" this is just how I plan to bet baseball.

If I make money I'm happy.....making it in your STUPID list means nothing to me

**onthewhat** · 04-06-09, 11:34 AM

**pavyracer** · 04-06-09, 11:35 AM

I always take RL on dogs. I did it last night with Braves for +197.

**SamsNCharge99** · 04-06-09, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

just take 75% and above home dogs... and pick your spots with the favs beyond that... fuk the run lines.

run lines are sucker bets

I do realize that there are a lot of games that will end up a 1 run game, and betting the run line you just lost rather than winning on the ML, but this is a little experiment for me and I'll see if I can make a little from it.

If not, I will just bet the ML

**Chi_archie** · 04-06-09, 11:37 AM

sounds good sammy....

make a thread to keep tabs on this experiment... this is the kinda stuff we need at SBR

although I doubt your thread could ever be big enough to give us an good sample size

**coldhardfacts** · 04-06-09, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

Think about it. Betting the run line on Favorites and betting the ML on dogs. You don't have to hit 50% to win.

Some examples using today's numbers.

If you like the METS to win. ML is -152 at 5 dimes.
using the run line of -1.5 METS are +115

Arizona D.Backs are -164 ML and +145 at the -1.5 run line.

If you bet both games on the spread and put $50 on both. Went 1-1, you are + money.

Betting both on the ML and going 1-1, you LOSE money.

Now, betting DOGS, only bet the ML.

Those Same 2 Games above.

Cincy is +147 ML and -125 at the +1.5 run line
Rockies are +158 ML and -155 on the +1.5 run line.

IN CONCLUSION, I think the best way to bet baseball is by betting the run line on favorites and bet the ML when betting doggs.

Occasionally bet the ML on favs....but mostly I think you should use the run line.

You can hit less than 50% and still make money

Good Luck on the MLB season guys

Not good. Not good.

**5 star bomb** · 04-06-09, 11:38 AM

run lines are for suckers.... they are ok sometimes but if you do them a lot you will get burned

**smitch124** · 04-06-09, 11:38 AM

Yes Sammy you cracked the code, bet only run lines for Favs. No one has every tried this before, the books will now be closing...

**fiveteamer** · 04-06-09, 11:40 AM

Sammy you were 6 years old when Derek jeter was a rookie. Go play with Legos.

**BestPlay2day** · 04-06-09, 11:40 AM

Instead of doing runline favorites at -1.5, bet favorites at -1 runlines. If your online book doesn't offer -1 runlines, it's easy to calculate and make a bet on ML and bet on -1.5 runline to equal a -1 runline. You will come out ahead if you bet more dogs as well.

**SamsNCharge99** · 04-06-09, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

sounds good sammy....

make a thread to keep tabs on this experiment... this is the kinda stuff we need at SBR

although I doubt your thread could ever be big enough to give us an good sample size

OK, I'll try to track it only w/ the bets I make though...not every game, so basically look at my spreadsheet.

To others, I never said this is a 100% Guaranteed way to make millions, all I'm saying is, maybe it's a way to make a little money

**fiveteamer** · 04-06-09, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by smitch124

Yes Sammy you cracked the code, bet only run lines for Favs. No one has every tried this before, the books will now be closing...

**Tsoprano** · 04-06-09, 11:44 AM

I understand if some of you don't like Sammy, but the kid is just posting his idea on something involving handicapping and he's getting slammed by the same crew of people. This forum drama isn't necessary and most of you get on him about that, but here he is trying to talk gambling and most of the replies are wise ass comments. unreal

**fiveteamer** · 04-06-09, 11:45 AM

he blew his chance.

**onthewhat** · 04-06-09, 11:47 AM

Fiveteamer wins poster of the year

**5 star bomb** · 04-06-09, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by BestPlay2day

Instead of doing runline favorites at -1.5, bet favorites at -1 runlines. If your online book doesn't offer -1 runlines, it's easy to calculate and make a bet on ML and bet on -1.5 runline to equal a -1 runline. You will come out ahead if you bet more dogs as well.

Good point....

**yisman** · 04-06-09, 11:50 AM

any other obvious comments, Sammyshowshiscock?

How about:

Don't bet -300 ML on NHL. That's one of my favorites.

Or: "Don't bet your entire bankroll on a single game."

**SamsNCharge99** · 04-06-09, 11:53 AM

fukk the haters T...

Record
Favs ML 0-1 (-1.35 units)
Favs RL 0-1 (- 1 unit)

Dogs ML 1-0 (+1.15 units)
Dogs RL 1-0 (+1 units)

**VegasDave** · 04-06-09, 11:53 AM

I think it is a lame over-generalization to say that run lines are always sucker bets. If you see good value in a run line, bet it.

I also think, however, that people are way too terrified of eating chalk. The run line isn't "smarter" at all if the team you are betting has a weak offense or spotty bullpen. Yes -165 is much less attractive than +145, but winning a unit after laying down 1.65 is better than losing a unit when the game ends up a 1 run game.

I like run lines and will bet them in plenty of spots, but don't get too greedy and go for it every time.

**yisman** · 04-06-09, 11:56 AM

occasionally run lines have value.

In my opinion, a good baseball bettor should have the majority of his bets be + MLs.* Avoid all heavy - MLs. Bet some RLs when there is value. Bet some favorites, but nothing -200 or worse.

* - assuming you're not betting totals

**Boner_18** · 04-06-09, 11:57 AM

I like the thought and will be interested in seeing the results. However, I think the fundamental flaw is in the statement "You don't have to hit 50% to win." This statement doesn't mean much.

For example, "I think for boxing the best way to bet is to bet only dogs at +1000 or greater, that way you only have to hit a tad over 10% to win." (I think those numbers are right, you get the idea).

The second statement isn't so much a rationale but is just a restatement of the first. Again though, I like the thought and will be interested in seeing results.

**james4512** · 04-06-09, 12:00 PM

goodluck sammy but that will not work. maybe later on in the year betting the 1.5 lines is ok but in the begining your going to get killed. Youd be surprised how many times you lose by .5 . I lost my entire bankroll in one night, i lost all 4 of my games by .5 and never really bet them since

**InTheHole** · 04-06-09, 12:01 PM

I wouldn't follow that rule unless there is value in the runline...a lot of games will be decided by 1 run. Try your system and see

**jjgold** · 04-06-09, 12:13 PM

More 1 run games than you think, for the most part RL are sucker bets.

**InTheHole** · 04-06-09, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

More 1 run games than you think, for the most part RL are sucker bets.

He knows

**yisman** · 04-06-09, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I always take RL on dogs. I did it last night with Braves for +197.

big hit for you and a few others on the Braves last night in the best bets thread.

I didn't pick it, but I thought the Phillies would win, even with wifebeater starting.

**pavyracer** · 04-06-09, 12:46 PM

I always do that on dogs I like. It pays off in the long run because of the great odds. When you bet the RL on favs sometimes you don't even get plus odds which sucks.

**yisman** · 04-06-09, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Yes Sammy you cracked the code, bet only run lines for Favs. No one has every tried this before, the books will now be closing...

Originally posted by Tsoprano

I understand if some of you don't like Sammy, but the kid is just posting his idea on something involving handicapping and he's getting slammed by the same crew of people. This forum drama isn't necessary and most of you get on him about that, but here he is trying to talk gambling and most of the replies are wise ass comments. unreal

You are fukking clueless. There are about a hundred threads about taking favorite RL and underdog MLs. Another one isn't necessary, especially when it gives zero insight and acts as if this is a novel theory and he should get credit for thinking up this brilliant idea.

This is an extremely stupid thread started by an attention whore who was banned, ghosted around the ban, posted a video of his cock, is a stiff, etc. It's begging for off topic posts. When Sammy makes a worthwhile post, I'll consider taking him seriously.

**yisman** · 04-06-09, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by BestPlay2day

Instead of doing runline favorites at -1.5, bet favorites at -1 runlines. If your online book doesn't offer -1 runlines, it's easy to calculate and make a bet on ML and bet on -1.5 runline to equal a -1 runline. You will come out ahead if you bet more dogs as well.

Now this is actually a worthwhile idea. Depending on the lines you can get on -1 favorites, this could definitely be profitable.

**SamsNCharge99** · 04-06-09, 01:01 PM

YISMAN...give me proof of me stiffing someone....give me proof. Who beat me and I didn't pay???

I'm not getting into it, b/c I don't want to get in trouble again....but if you bring it up 1 more time....you will get in trouble for it....ANYWAY

I haven't seen 1 thread about this topic, so I made one. I never said this is a 100% guarantee winning SYSTEM...I just stated the facts that I came up w/.

If you don't like it, stick to your threads and I'll stay doing what I do.

DO WORK

**Chi_archie** · 04-06-09, 01:04 PM

[quote=SamsNCharge99;1716107]YISMAN...give me proof of me stiffing someone....give me proof. Who beat me and I didn't pay???

I'm not getting into it, b/c I don't want to get in trouble again....but if you bring it up 1 more time....you will get in trouble for it....ANYWAY

oh boy....

here we go again... forum-ville for children

ignore is great function people...

**themajormt** · 04-06-09, 01:08 PM

Ok boys everyone put their weiners back in their pants...

First, does anyone know where we can get the final scores for say the last 5 years and determine how many ended up 1 run games? That would be huge... If say over 65% were NOT 1 run games then there definitely is money to be made with taking the run lines. But in my experience, and in no way keeping track, I think a good amount of games fall within a run...