Nash 2015 MLB Thread

[Vasco]

Like it, but missed the 8.5.

[Big Bear]

Stax thinks Bauer is a Cy Young Candidate

[stevenash]

^
He's wild, he's filthy, yes, but wild.

[Da Manster!]

Nash,
any thoughts on my picks?!

[stevenash]

three solid plays for me today fellas...all for one buck a piece!

Detroit/NY over 9 (-120)
Padres/Rockies over 9.5(-120)
Reds (+105) against Milwaukee

Yeah, I like two of three.
Simon throws that cut fastball Ells and A-Rod like to hit, even Gardy, Miggy owns CC's ass, that should go over 9
I got a Cincinnatti stack in a daily league, Rox I'm not so sure about, Despaigne or however you spell his last name is not a gopher ball pticher, but you can't bet the under at Coors, risky business.
I like two out of the three, and I'll pass on the Rox total.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103737

[Vasco]

Yeah, I like two of three.
Simon throws that cut fastball Ells and A-Rod like to hit, even Gardy, Miggy owns CC's ass, that should go over 9
I got a Cincinnatti stack in a daily league, Rox I'm not so sure about, Despaigne or however you spell his last name is not a gopher ball pticher, but you can't bet the under at Coors, risky business.
I like two out of the three, and I'll pass on the Rox total.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca....php?id=103737

Liking the pads here instead of the over. Especially if it starts to hit +140. De La Rosa first start back I think he gets shelled.

[Da Manster!]

Yeah, I like two of three.
Simon throws that cut fastball Ells and A-Rod like to hit, even Gardy, Miggy owns CC's ass, that should go over 9
I got a Cincinnatti stack in a daily league, Rox I'm not so sure about, Despaigne or however you spell his last name is not a gopher ball pticher, but you can't bet the under at Coors, risky business.
I like two out of the three, and I'll pass on the Rox total.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca....php?id=103737

thanks, bud...I feel a little better now...and I will gladly take two out of three any day of the week and twice on Sunday!...

[stevenash]

For those who discredit BvP

Pedroia went 2 for 3 this afternoon
Papi had a walk and a RBI

Look real close at Ryan Raburn.
Now look again.

Raburn wouldn't homer his first time up tonight, would he?


Yep, he did.

Jedd Gyrko is 10 for 15 lifetime against De La Rosa.
Anybody want to bet me he does not get a hit tonight.

Once again, BvP is not the be all end all, but once again, it can not be ignored.

[IMG]file:///C:\Users\bill\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtml clip1\01\clip_image002.png[/IMG] Matchup Info				Career Matchup Stats
Batter	Pos	Game	Pitcher	AB	H	XBH	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
D. Nava	OF	BOS vs BAL	W. Chen	16	7	1	1	3	1	4	0.438	0.471	0.625	1.096
11:05AM
D. Ortiz	DH	BOS vs BAL	W. Chen	21	8	2	1	5	2	4	0.381	0.417	0.571	0.988
11:05AM
D. Pedroia	2B	BOS vs BAL	W. Chen	27	14	6	0	5	3	2	0.519	0.567	0.778	1.344
11:05AM
S. Castro	SS	CHC @ PIT	A. Burnett	29	13	3	0	4	0	3	0.448	0.448	0.552	1
7:05PM
A. Rizzo	1B	CHC @ PIT	A. Burnett	21	5	2	2	4	3	4	0.238	0.333	0.524	0.857
7:05PM
M. Cabrera	1B	DET vs NYY	C. Sabathia	29	10	4	2	12	5	4	0.345	0.417	0.621	1.037
7:08PM
J. Kipnis	2B	CLE @ CWS	J. Danks	23	7	3	1	7	3	3	0.304	0.393	0.565	0.958
8:10PM
R. Raburn	OF	CLE @ CWS	J. Danks	44	15	9	3	11	6	11	0.341	0.412	0.682	1.094
8:10PM
J. Gyorko	2B	SD @ COL	J. De La Rosa	15	10	3	0	2	4	2	0.667	0.737	0.867	1.604
8:40PM
M. Kemp	OF	SD @ COL	J. De La Rosa	39	15	8	3	12	2	4	0.385	0.405	0.769	1.174
8:40PM
J. Upton	OF	SD @ COL	J. De La Rosa	19	7	1	0	0	5	5	0.368	0.5	0.421	0.921
8:40PM
J. Altuve	2B	HOU @ SEA	H. Iwakuma	25	10	3	0	5	0	2	0.4	0.357	0.52	0.877
10:10PM
J. Lowrie	SS	HOU @ SEA	H. Iwakuma	15	4	3	1	3	0	2	0.267	0.267	0.667	0.933
10:10PM

[broadway6]

some damn nice data there. Kemp with a nice 2 run double too

[stevenash]

Now it would suck if I did not use Gyorko and Raburn in the same lineup, wouldn't it?

Or did I?

P

Anthony DeSclafani

CIN 6 @ MIL 0 ▼7th

$6900SALARY

12%OWNED

6.2 IPO

3 SO

9.66

C

Derek Norris

SDP 6 @ COL 0 ▲2nd

$2800SALARY

49%OWNED

1 1B

1 2B

1 R

4

1B

Albert Pujols

OAK @ LAA 10:05pm

$3700SALARY

2%OWNED

2B

Jedd Gyorko

SDP 6 @ COL 0 ▲2nd

$2700SALARY

38%OWNED

1 2B

1 RBI

1 R

4

3B

Mike Moustakas

MIN 1 @ KAN 1 ▲4th

$3100SALARY

17%OWNED

2 O

-0.5

SS

Troy Tulowitzki

SDP 6 @ COL 0 ▲2nd

$5300SALARY

10%OWNED

1 O

-0.25

OF

Ryan Raburn

CLE 2 @ CWS 0 ▲4th

$2400SALARY

13%OWNED

1 HR

1 RBI

1 R

6

OF

Mike Trout

OAK @ LAA 10:05pm

$5900SALARY

7%OWNED

OF

Marlon Byrd

CIN 6 @ MIL 0 ▼7th

$2200SALARY

3%OWNED

1 R

3 O

[Da Manster!]

Nash,
Two out of three!......hopefully I'll continue to post winners on here...

[Da Manster!]

alright fellas...let's roll with with O's/Jays over 8.5 (-120) for one unit ($100)!...

[iHateBetting12]

alright fellas...let's roll with with O's/Jays over 8.5 (-120) for one unit ($100)!...

Im weary of playing totals so far this season. I have had better luck with picking a side. However, this one is really hard to pass up and will most likely play it.

Nash what are your thoughts on the Rockies and Jays tonight? I know you have to lay some chalk here, but their currently at Jays -121 and Rockies -107. I don't have a problem laying a little here and there and I think they are both the right sides tonight.

[stevenash]

alright fellas...let's roll with with O's/Jays over 8.5 (-120) for one unit ($100)!...

Orioles +123 for the win,

Buerhle gets lit by Jones and check out Delmon Young as the sleeper tonight.
Travis Snider will get his too,

Bud Norris is no great shakes, but in this spot, I like the plus money.

Orioles best dog bet of the night,

Be back in an hour.

p.s. can't bet them at - 125, (maybe a little) watch the Brews wake up and beat the shit out of that hamburger Jason Marquis.

My play: Baltimore

[Big Bear]

Nasher we should have take the Astros and A's last night

both were huge dogs and won easily. I see what you mean now about how foolish it is to be on a favorite in MLB.

[Da Manster!]

Orioles +123 for the win,

Buerhle gets lit by Jones and check out Delmon Young as the sleeper tonight.
Travis Snider will get his too,

Bud Norris is no great shakes, but in this spot, I like the plus money.

Orioles best dog bet of the night,

Be back in an hour.

p.s. can't bet them at - 125, (maybe a little) watch the Brews wake up and beat the shit out of that hamburger Jason Marquis.

My play: Baltimore

good luck Nash!..I hope the O's come through for both you and I....Did I ever tell you about one of my top handicapping tools that I use for totals...It's something that I call the EDT (Equilibrium Disbursement Theory)...meaning I generally look for an equal amount of runs being scored by both teams evenly...for example, in tonight's game between the O's/Jays the total is 8.5...I say is each team good for 4 runs a piece?!...if it's a yes, then over is the play!......because if the game is tied 4 - 4 it will break 8.5...I apply the same theory for numbers like 6.5, 8.5, 10.5, etc...with 6.5, you say is each team good for 3 runs, 10.5 is each team good for 5 runs, and so on...of'course you still have to handicap the game, players, stats, and all other factors into the equation and then decide for yourself...but most of the time it works for me!...

[GT21Megatron]

Birds game is going over

[stevenash]

Using Liriano in a few dailies, I won't bet him at -150+, but at Fan Duel, he is the pitcher to start tonight.

[stevenash]

Birds game is going over

On paper, game should fly the over by inning 7

[Emancipator]

Orioles +123 for the win,

Buerhle gets lit by Jones and check out Delmon Young as the sleeper tonight.
Travis Snider will get his too,

Bud Norris is no great shakes, but in this spot, I like the plus money.

Orioles best dog bet of the night,

Be back in an hour.

p.s. can't bet them at - 125, (maybe a little) watch the Brews wake up and beat the shit out of that hamburger Jason Marquis.

My play: Baltimore

Take Brew Crew FF on RL then

Tailing your Orioles play, bol.

[stevenash]

^
Don't bet run lines on home teams please.
Very risky business.

[Da Manster!]

not quite the way I drew it up on the chalkboard, but I'll gladly take it!......easy winner and only 3 innings needed!...

[Pete0]

Lol all u Care about is thumping ur chest don't u

Yes yes, we know underdogs win more than 100% banroll risked

BOL in May.

[Da Manster!]

alright SBR degens...let's roll with Twins/Royals over 8 (-120) for one unit ($100)!...

[JJJ]

Who u like tonight nashy?

[stevenash]

Pitt over CHC

Pirates pick 'em.

I might be late to the Vance Worley party, but the dude truly has reinvented himself.
Hammel is a chesseburger.

Pirates.

(I'm cold as ice, but I'll keep picking them until the tide turns)

Hi Pete, looks like trolling season is good.
p.s. How'd your Atlanta Hawks pick work out for ya the other day?
Piece of advice, don't ride them again, unless you are a glutton for punishment.

[Vasco]

Any thoughts on Twins and Astros as underdogs? Feel like one gets a win.

[trobin31]

Better off pirates 1st 5 innings. Like Worley but dat bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen lately, bol

[stevenash]

Better off pirates 1st 5 innings. Like Worley but dat bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen lately, bol

Valid point.

[Yons18]

Any thoughts on Twins and Astros as underdogs? Feel like one gets a win.

Royals own Pelfrey.

[Pete0]

i'm from ATL, so theres uncontrollable homerism from me :P

GL with the pirates tonite

[jjgold]

Pitt seems very overrated

They might of had fluke season in 2014

[EXhoosier10]

Pedroia went 2 for 3 this afternoon
Papi had a walk and a RBI

Look real close at Ryan Raburn.
Now look again.

Raburn wouldn't homer his first time up tonight, would he?


Yep, he did.

Jedd Gyrko is 10 for 15 lifetime against De La Rosa.
Anybody want to bet me he does not get a hit tonight.

Once again, BvP is not the be all end all, but once again, it can not be ignored.

I'm honestly not trolling, but again, your BvP stats are hardly taking into account anything. re: gyorko v de la rosa, you're not factoring in the fact that half those AB's came in coors, you're not factoring in the fact that de la rosa has a 1.4 WHIP vs Righties since Gyorko came up in 2013 (2013-15, delarosa is the 12th worst pitcher v RHH among qualified starters). you're not factoring in the fact that a hitter gets 3+ AB's a game against a SP each game and anything less than 1 hit over 3 ab's is a "bad" game.

Say Gyorko is a .270 hitter. vs righties, Say De La rosa is 25% below league average vs rhh, that puts gyorko's projection that game at probably a .290 hitter? Say the games at coors (like this game was), so factor in the 10% park factor and you're at, say, a .310 hitter. That means by this rough estimate, he should get 1 hit in 3 ab's agianst de la rosa. What about the fact that de la rosa was just returning from injury? All of these factors are playing for you, not necessarily the fact that gyorko "owns" de la rosa. Once you factor all of these outside stats/perspectives into the equation, gyorko has only slightly outperformed his projection.

I'm not saying hitters don't see some pitchers better than others. I'm saying you can't predict it.

[stevenash]

i'm from ATL, so theres uncontrollable homerism from me :P

GL with the pirates tonite

I think Hawks win, Brooklyn keeps in single digits.

[bhoor]

I'm honestly not trolling, but again, your BvP stats are hardly taking into account anything. re: gyorko v de la rosa, you're not factoring in the fact that half those AB's came in coors, you're not factoring in the fact that de la rosa has a 1.4 WHIP vs Righties since Gyorko came up in 2013 (2013-15, delarosa is the 12th worst pitcher v RHH among qualified starters). you're not factoring in the fact that a hitter gets 3+ AB's a game against a SP each game and anything less than 1 hit over 3 ab's is a "bad" game.

Say Gyorko is a .270 hitter. vs righties, Say De La rosa is 25% below league average vs rhh, that puts gyorko's projection that game at probably a .290 hitter? Say the games at coors (like this game was), so factor in the 10% park factor and you're at, say, a .310 hitter. That means by this rough estimate, he should get 1 hit in 3 ab's agianst de la rosa. What about the fact that de la rosa was just returning from injury? All of these factors are playing for you, not necessarily the fact that gyorko "owns" de la rosa. Once you factor all of these outside stats/perspectives into the equation, gyorko has only slightly outperformed his projection.

I'm not saying hitters don't see some pitchers better than others. I'm saying you can't predict it.

What about the umpires squeezing the strike zone in favor of one team? If you go alone with the stats, it is a recipe for a disaster.