Like it, but missed the 8.5.
Nash 2015 MLB Thread
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VascoSBR Sharp
- 03-16-12
- 315
#316Comment -
Big BearSBR Aristocracy
- 11-01-11
- 43253
#317Stax thinks Bauer is a Cy Young CandidateComment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#318^
He's wild, he's filthy, yes, but wild.Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#319Nash,
any thoughts on my picks?!Comment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#320
Simon throws that cut fastball Ells and A-Rod like to hit, even Gardy, Miggy owns CC's ass, that should go over 9
I got a Cincinnatti stack in a daily league, Rox I'm not so sure about, Despaigne or however you spell his last name is not a gopher ball pticher, but you can't bet the under at Coors, risky business.
I like two out of the three, and I'll pass on the Rox total.
Comment -
VascoSBR Sharp
- 03-16-12
- 315
#321Yeah, I like two of three.
Simon throws that cut fastball Ells and A-Rod like to hit, even Gardy, Miggy owns CC's ass, that should go over 9
I got a Cincinnatti stack in a daily league, Rox I'm not so sure about, Despaigne or however you spell his last name is not a gopher ball pticher, but you can't bet the under at Coors, risky business.
I like two out of the three, and I'll pass on the Rox total.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca....php?id=103737Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#322Yeah, I like two of three.
Simon throws that cut fastball Ells and A-Rod like to hit, even Gardy, Miggy owns CC's ass, that should go over 9
I got a Cincinnatti stack in a daily league, Rox I'm not so sure about, Despaigne or however you spell his last name is not a gopher ball pticher, but you can't bet the under at Coors, risky business.
I like two out of the three, and I'll pass on the Rox total.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ca....php?id=103737Comment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#323For those who discredit BvP
Pedroia went 2 for 3 this afternoon
Papi had a walk and a RBI
Look real close at Ryan Raburn.
Now look again.
Raburn wouldn't homer his first time up tonight, would he?
Yep, he did.
Jedd Gyrko is 10 for 15 lifetime against De La Rosa.
Anybody want to bet me he does not get a hit tonight.
Once again, BvP is not the be all end all, but once again, it can not be ignored.
[IMG]file:///C:\Users\bill\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtml clip1\01\clip_image002.png[/IMG] Matchup Info Career Matchup Stats Batter Pos Game Pitcher AB H XBH HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS D. Nava OF BOS vs BAL W. Chen 16 7 1 1 3 1 4 0.438 0.471 0.625 1.096 11:05AM D. Ortiz DH BOS vs BAL W. Chen 21 8 2 1 5 2 4 0.381 0.417 0.571 0.988 11:05AM D. Pedroia 2B BOS vs BAL W. Chen 27 14 6 0 5 3 2 0.519 0.567 0.778 1.344 11:05AM S. Castro SS CHC @ PIT A. Burnett 29 13 3 0 4 0 3 0.448 0.448 0.552 1 7:05PM A. Rizzo 1B CHC @ PIT A. Burnett 21 5 2 2 4 3 4 0.238 0.333 0.524 0.857 7:05PM M. Cabrera 1B DET vs NYY C. Sabathia 29 10 4 2 12 5 4 0.345 0.417 0.621 1.037 7:08PM J. Kipnis 2B CLE @ CWS J. Danks 23 7 3 1 7 3 3 0.304 0.393 0.565 0.958 8:10PM R. Raburn OF CLE @ CWS J. Danks 44 15 9 3 11 6 11 0.341 0.412 0.682 1.094 8:10PM J. Gyorko 2B SD @ COL J. De La Rosa 15 10 3 0 2 4 2 0.667 0.737 0.867 1.604 8:40PM M. Kemp OF SD @ COL J. De La Rosa 39 15 8 3 12 2 4 0.385 0.405 0.769 1.174 8:40PM J. Upton OF SD @ COL J. De La Rosa 19 7 1 0 0 5 5 0.368 0.5 0.421 0.921 8:40PM J. Altuve 2B HOU @ SEA H. Iwakuma 25 10 3 0 5 0 2 0.4 0.357 0.52 0.877 10:10PM J. Lowrie SS HOU @ SEA H. Iwakuma 15 4 3 1 3 0 2 0.267 0.267 0.667 0.933 10:10PM Comment -
broadway6SBR Posting Legend
- 11-14-09
- 13337
#324some damn nice data there. Kemp with a nice 2 run double tooComment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#325Now it would suck if I did not use Gyorko and Raburn in the same lineup, wouldn't it?
Or did I?
P
Anthony DeSclafani CIN 6 @ MIL 0 ▼7th
$6900SALARY
12%OWNED 6.2 IPO
3 SO 9.66
C
Derek Norris
SDP 6 @ COL 0 ▲2nd
$2800SALARY
49%OWNED 1 1B
1 2B 1 R 4
1B
Albert Pujols
OAK @ LAA 10:05pm
$3700SALARY
2%OWNED
2B
Jedd Gyorko
SDP 6 @ COL 0 ▲2nd
$2700SALARY
38%OWNED 1 2B
1 RBI 1 R 4
3B
Mike Moustakas
MIN 1 @ KAN 1 ▲4th
$3100SALARY
17%OWNED 2 O
-0.5
SS
Troy Tulowitzki
SDP 6 @ COL 0 ▲2nd
$5300SALARY
10%OWNED 1 O
-0.25
OF
Ryan Raburn
CLE 2 @ CWS 0 ▲4th
$2400SALARY
13%OWNED 1 HR
1 RBI 1 R 6
OF
Mike Trout
OAK @ LAA 10:05pm
$5900SALARY
7%OWNED
OF
Marlon Byrd
CIN 6 @ MIL 0 ▼7th
$2200SALARY
3%OWNED 1 R
3 O Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#326Nash,
Two out of three!......hopefully I'll continue to post winners on here...
Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#327alright fellas...let's roll with with O's/Jays over 8.5 (-120) for one unit ($100)!...Comment -
iHateBetting12SBR Sharp
- 12-22-13
- 429
#328
Nash what are your thoughts on the Rockies and Jays tonight? I know you have to lay some chalk here, but their currently at Jays -121 and Rockies -107. I don't have a problem laying a little here and there and I think they are both the right sides tonight.Comment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#329
Buerhle gets lit by Jones and check out Delmon Young as the sleeper tonight.
Travis Snider will get his too,
Bud Norris is no great shakes, but in this spot, I like the plus money.
Orioles best dog bet of the night,
Be back in an hour.
p.s. can't bet them at - 125, (maybe a little) watch the Brews wake up and beat the shit out of that hamburger Jason Marquis.
My play: BaltimoreComment -
Big BearSBR Aristocracy
- 11-01-11
- 43253
#330Nasher we should have take the Astros and A's last night
both were huge dogs and won easily. I see what you mean now about how foolish it is to be on a favorite in MLB.Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#331Orioles +123 for the win,
Buerhle gets lit by Jones and check out Delmon Young as the sleeper tonight.
Travis Snider will get his too,
Bud Norris is no great shakes, but in this spot, I like the plus money.
Orioles best dog bet of the night,
Be back in an hour.
p.s. can't bet them at - 125, (maybe a little) watch the Brews wake up and beat the shit out of that hamburger Jason Marquis.
My play: Baltimore
good luck Nash!..I hope the O's come through for both you and I....Did I ever tell you about one of my top handicapping tools that I use for totals...It's something that I call the EDT (Equilibrium Disbursement Theory)...meaning I generally look for an equal amount of runs being scored by both teams evenly...for example, in tonight's game between the O's/Jays the total is 8.5...I say is each team good for 4 runs a piece?!...if it's a yes, then over is the play!......because if the game is tied 4 - 4 it will break 8.5...I apply the same theory for numbers like 6.5, 8.5, 10.5, etc...with 6.5, you say is each team good for 3 runs, 10.5 is each team good for 5 runs, and so on...of'course you still have to handicap the game, players, stats, and all other factors into the equation and then decide for yourself...but most of the time it works for me!...
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GT21MegatronSBR Posting Legend
- 12-20-13
- 10818
#332Birds game is going overComment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#333Using Liriano in a few dailies, I won't bet him at -150+, but at Fan Duel, he is the pitcher to start tonight.Comment -
EmancipatorSBR Wise Guy
- 04-12-13
- 788
#335Orioles +123 for the win,
Buerhle gets lit by Jones and check out Delmon Young as the sleeper tonight.
Travis Snider will get his too,
Bud Norris is no great shakes, but in this spot, I like the plus money.
Orioles best dog bet of the night,
Be back in an hour.
p.s. can't bet them at - 125, (maybe a little) watch the Brews wake up and beat the shit out of that hamburger Jason Marquis.
My play: Baltimore
Tailing your Orioles play, bol.Comment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#336^
Don't bet run lines on home teams please.
Very risky business.Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#337not quite the way I drew it up on the chalkboard, but I'll gladly take it!......easy winner and only 3 innings needed!...
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Pete0SBR MVP
- 04-09-10
- 3849
#338Lol all u Care about is thumping ur chest don't u
Yes yes, we know underdogs win more than 100% banroll risked
BOL in May.Comment -
Da Manster!SBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-07
- 17720
#339alright SBR degens...let's roll with Twins/Royals over 8 (-120) for one unit ($100)!...
Comment -
JJJSBR MVP
- 05-03-11
- 2610
#340Who u like tonight nashy?Comment -
stevenashModerator
- 01-17-11
- 65450
#341Pitt over CHC
Pirates pick 'em.
I might be late to the Vance Worley party, but the dude truly has reinvented himself.
Hammel is a chesseburger.
Pirates.
(I'm cold as ice, but I'll keep picking them until the tide turns)
Hi Pete, looks like trolling season is good.
p.s. How'd your Atlanta Hawks pick work out for ya the other day?
Piece of advice, don't ride them again, unless you are a glutton for punishment.Comment -
VascoSBR Sharp
- 03-16-12
- 315
#342Any thoughts on Twins and Astros as underdogs? Feel like one gets a win.Comment -
trobin31SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-09-14
- 9853
#343Better off pirates 1st 5 innings. Like Worley but dat bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen lately, bolComment -
Pete0SBR MVP
- 04-09-10
- 3849
#346i'm from ATL, so theres uncontrollable homerism from me :P
GL with the pirates toniteComment -
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#347Pitt seems very overrated
They might of had fluke season in 2014Comment -
EXhoosier10SBR MVP
- 07-06-09
- 3122
#348Pedroia went 2 for 3 this afternoon
Papi had a walk and a RBI
Look real close at Ryan Raburn.
Now look again.
Raburn wouldn't homer his first time up tonight, would he?
Yep, he did.
Jedd Gyrko is 10 for 15 lifetime against De La Rosa.
Anybody want to bet me he does not get a hit tonight.
Once again, BvP is not the be all end all, but once again, it can not be ignored.
Say Gyorko is a .270 hitter. vs righties, Say De La rosa is 25% below league average vs rhh, that puts gyorko's projection that game at probably a .290 hitter? Say the games at coors (like this game was), so factor in the 10% park factor and you're at, say, a .310 hitter. That means by this rough estimate, he should get 1 hit in 3 ab's agianst de la rosa. What about the fact that de la rosa was just returning from injury? All of these factors are playing for you, not necessarily the fact that gyorko "owns" de la rosa. Once you factor all of these outside stats/perspectives into the equation, gyorko has only slightly outperformed his projection.
I'm not saying hitters don't see some pitchers better than others. I'm saying you can't predict it.Comment -
bhoorSBR MVP
- 12-17-12
- 2256
#350I'm honestly not trolling, but again, your BvP stats are hardly taking into account anything. re: gyorko v de la rosa, you're not factoring in the fact that half those AB's came in coors, you're not factoring in the fact that de la rosa has a 1.4 WHIP vs Righties since Gyorko came up in 2013 (2013-15, delarosa is the 12th worst pitcher v RHH among qualified starters). you're not factoring in the fact that a hitter gets 3+ AB's a game against a SP each game and anything less than 1 hit over 3 ab's is a "bad" game.
Say Gyorko is a .270 hitter. vs righties, Say De La rosa is 25% below league average vs rhh, that puts gyorko's projection that game at probably a .290 hitter? Say the games at coors (like this game was), so factor in the 10% park factor and you're at, say, a .310 hitter. That means by this rough estimate, he should get 1 hit in 3 ab's agianst de la rosa. What about the fact that de la rosa was just returning from injury? All of these factors are playing for you, not necessarily the fact that gyorko "owns" de la rosa. Once you factor all of these outside stats/perspectives into the equation, gyorko has only slightly outperformed his projection.
I'm not saying hitters don't see some pitchers better than others. I'm saying you can't predict it.Comment
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