Walk me thru the Process of how you handicap a baseball game

[Big Bear]

This should be interesting...

[TheMoneyShot]

A lot of the decent MLB cappers won't tell you their secrets.

[rkelly110]

There was a guy in here who was pretty good at it. His name was vegasgold. Look him up in the search engine.

He would bet all the home favorites and chase the ones that lost. He racked up huge units.

His premise was, home favs don't get shut out too often in a 3 game series. He stopped posting and left after some
bad beats. You will need a good size bank roll of at least 2k. 1k if you bet $5 a game.

I'll do the work for you. Here's the link: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ight=vegasgold

[statnerds]

1. follow the Market
2. beat Market to the Closer
3. collect winnings
4. repeat

[Waterstpub87]

Understand what statistics actually matter and combined them together

[Big Bear]

Understand what statistics actually matter and combined them together

have you identified which ones those are?

[TheMoneyShot]

Honestly... I think the art is.... matching up coaches minds... etc. What they would do in certain situations. Also, who's scheduled coming out of the bullpen... and who's tired and won't come out. Did they play extra innings last night??? Did they play a night game and today will be a day game? Everything matters. And once you figure out bullpen production... then... look at lifetime stats VS batter and pitcher.

Did I bore you yet? That's how much handicapping is done in one game... imagine if you had to do 15 a night? That's why the sh#$ isn't worth it.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Understand what statistics actually matter and combined them together

I'm working on something like this as we speak.

[Waterstpub87]

have you identified which ones those are?

Not ERA. I've found OBP, Whip, a few other derived statistics to be the more accurate.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Not ERA. I've found OBP, Whip, a few other derived statistics to be the more accurate.

[statnerds]

name a stat that isn't in the price already

[Waterstpub87]

name a stat that isn't in the price already

All of the stats likely priced in. How much they affect the price is where value lies. Also, which interval to calculate those stats over.

[EXhoosier10]

All of the stats likely priced in. How much they affect the price is where value lies. Also, which interval to calculate those stats over.

not L7 days

[Optional]

name a stat that isn't in the price already

Player biorhythms?

[TheMoneyShot]

Player biorhythms?

I heard it was a trick back in the day. There are websites in which you run a player's date of birth in a system... it tells you how they'd feel on a certain day. Again, everyone trying to get an advantage... that sh#$ doesn't work either. What sucks even more so... what if the bday you get isn't accurate??? Then you're even more fukked. ESPN was the master at posting inaccurate birth dates at one point.

[TheMoneyShot]

Nasher... get in here and tell us JUST ONE of your many secrets. We need some help.

[Optional]

I heard it was a trick back in the day. There are websites in which you run a player's date of birth in a system... it tells you how they'd feel on a certain day. Again, everyone trying to get an advantage... that sh#$ doesn't work either. What sucks even more so... what if the bday you get isn't accurate??? Then you're even more fukked. ESPN was the master at posting inaccurate birth dates at one point.

I've tossed around the idea of creating a tool aimed at NHL to compare the BRs of opposing lines but to do it right you would need to rate how each of the 3 rhythms affects each players strengths and weaknesses which is just too much work to test if something might work or not for me.

It does seem like an aspect worth investigating in sports where they play multiple times per week to me though.

[statnerds]

I've tossed around the idea of creating a tool aimed at NHL to compare the BRs of opposing lines but to do it right you would need to rate how each of the 3 rhythms affects each players strengths and weaknesses which is just too much work to test if something might work or not for me.

It does seem like an aspect worth investigating in sports where they play multiple times per week to me though.

i love it. think you are on to something. now, i have the second piece to that puzzle that will put us over the top.

if you could secure accurate information on bowel movements prior to gametime (lighter, faster skaters) it would give you an advantage. and for live betting we would need to know of any deuces dropped between periods.

lets collaborate on this.

[Optional]

[evo34]

Honestly... I think the art is.... matching up coaches minds... etc. What they would do in certain situations. Also, who's scheduled coming out of the bullpen... and who's tired and won't come out. Did they play extra innings last night??? Did they play a night game and today will be a day game? Everything matters. And once you figure out bullpen production... then... look at lifetime stats VS batter and pitcher.

Did I bore you yet? That's how much handicapping is done in one game... imagine if you had to do 15 a night? That's why the sh#$ isn't worth it.

The things you mention are pretty much what you don't want to be looking at. Managers, tired bullpens, and pitcher/batter matchups are all overvalued by the market.

[jtoler]

Honestly... I think the art is.... matching up coaches minds... etc. What they would do in certain situations. Also, who's scheduled coming out of the bullpen... and who's tired and won't come out. Did they play extra innings last night??? Did they play a night game and today will be a day game? Everything matters. And once you figure out bullpen production... then... look at lifetime stats VS batter and pitcher.

Did I bore you yet? That's how much handicapping is done in one game... imagine if you had to do 15 a night? That's why the sh#$ isn't worth it.

Pretty much my thoughts. Managers and their decisions cost a bettor games on the daily, yearly I see about 2 or 3 decent managers, those who wont keep pitchers in too long, most keep them in way too long, 4 run leads get shrunk alot, I like betting live against a team when they have a decent sized lead and I know they are gonna bring a rookie or a bad pitcher just to waste innings. Baseball like any other sport, many games a team doesnt do much until late in the game for whatever reason, leads waste away just like any other sport.

[broadway6]

Flipping a shiny quarter. When that coin goes cold I grab a dime. Etc etc etc.

[jjgold]

Look at maybe last 10 games and who is pitching

its real simple

[Holtgetsback]

Pitchers, batter splits and bullpens mostly

Long season but profitabe if you go 1 day at time

[daneblazer]

Baseball is the ultimate marathon

[unusialsusp5]

starting pitching matchups are most important. also, ride a team on a winning streak after 5 straight and conversely bet against one on a 5 game losing streak. why should a streak stop after 5 every time a team reaches it. hint: it doesn't. and since books inflate lines on favorites and home teams too heavily in this game, concentrate on road team underdogs when you have an almost equal starting pitching matchup. season is long and summer is hot and human mind will weaken usually sometime in july. so try to stay focused.

[THam12]

[daneblazer]

Cya on opening day, Bear

[INVEGA MAN]

I put a lot of work into my system but you have to have a system

[V4Value]

Pick the right games..inning progression NOT to score..Keep adding to see +pprofit every inning. Once you made one inning you stop. Only started mid season last year and saw a profit. Got into two games deep, only saw money at 5th inning but I'm sure it's exploitable with the right research.

[mcdonae101]

1. logon to sbr
2. find wizzles season long thread before he starts new one
3. bet opposite of every play
4. sit back and get rich

it really can b this simple

[Swinging Johnson]

I'm not a big baseball guy but I love betting baseball. There's something strange about baseball in that I actually enjoy watching it when I have action on it. Here's the reason. Unlike basketball when a run scores it means quite a bit. Unlike hockey when a goal is scored it doesn't mean game over because so many hockey games are decided by one goal. It's a nice happy medium.

Regarding my Golden Rules.

*Look at the starters last three starts. They will tell the tale of where he is at that point of the season.

*Review each pitcher's history in the park they are playing in. That will give you historical perspective regarding how his pitches fare in that particular field.

*Analyze the bullpen. Are they solid and if so which pitchers will not be available because they pitched the night before.

*Review the history of the batters to the opposing starting pitcher and get an average. This sounds like a ton of work but there are sites that give all this data.

*Finally, take a look at how the teams have been playing. Winning and losing is equally as contagious.

I normally have quite a bit of success but I do have a penchant for laying the lumber but here's one last thing for you rookies. If you really like a team that is favored by north of -200 in MLB odds then put that team in a parlay with a team that is playing after the first game is over. That way you can actually try to middle the game and bet the other side +1.5 runs. If you feel good about the second leg of your 2-team parlay then leave it alone and roll the dice but at the very least you won't get beat up for all that juice.

That's it for me kiddos. May the Boys of Summer be kind to ye.

[Big Bear]

1. logon to sbr
2. find wizzles season long thread before he starts new one
3. bet opposite of every play
4. sit back and get rich

it really can b this simple

did he keep track of units?

[Big Bear]

I'm not a big baseball guy but I love betting baseball. There's something strange about baseball in that I actually enjoy watching it when I have action on it. Here's the reason. Unlike basketball when a run scores it means quite a bit. Unlike hockey when a goal is scored it doesn't mean game over because so many hockey games are decided by one goal. It's a nice happy medium.

Regarding my Golden Rules.

*Look at the starters last three starts. They will tell the tale of where he is at that point of the season.

*Review each pitcher's history in the park they are playing in. That will give you historical perspective regarding how his pitches fare in that particular field.

*Analyze the bullpen. Are they solid and if so which pitchers will not be available because they pitched the night before.

*Review the history of the batters to the opposing starting pitcher and get an average. This sounds like a ton of work but there are sites that give all this data.

*Finally, take a look at how the teams have been playing. Winning and losing is equally as contagious.

I normally have quite a bit of success but I do have a penchant for laying the lumber but here's one last thing for you rookies. If you really like a team that is favored by north of -200 in MLB odds then put that team in a parlay with a team that is playing after the first game is over. That way you can actually try to middle the game and bet the other side +1.5 runs. If you feel good about the second leg of your 2-team parlay then leave it alone and roll the dice but at the very least you won't get beat up for all that juice.

That's it for me kiddos. May the Boys of Summer be kind to ye.

thats a really great informative post. Thanks for sharing. There is no right or wrong answer to this I just like to hear other posters strategies so I can try them out and see if they help me.

[jjgold]

Bear tail me dog and make $$$$