Super Bowl XLIX: Betting on Seattle Seahawks +1 because I want everyone to win money.
First of all, there's no such thing as a lock.
And if for some reason I get this wrong, congrats to all the Patriots bettors.
I have a 10 units on -110 bet on the Seahawks and 1 unit on +550 bet on the Seahawks future during the offseason.
I maintain money management by betting less than 5% of current total bankroll.
Money management requires self discipline.
"Self-discipline: is the ability to control one's feelings and overcome one's weaknesses; the ability to pursue what one thinks is right despite temptations to abandon it."
I have strong convincing arguments based on science, math and philosophy that defends the Seattle Seahawks.
Betting on intellectual reasons > Betting on emotional reasons
Solid physical evidence > Lack of physical evidence
1. Defense wins championships.
#11 Patriots offense vs #1 Seahawks defense
#9 Seahawks offense vs #13 Patriots defense
Patriots and Seahawks have a common opponent that defeated them this season, the Kansas City Cheifs.
Alex Smith performed against the Patriots defense:
CP/ATT:20/26 YDS:248 TD:3 INT:0
Alex Smith performed against the Seahawks defense:
CP/ATT:11/16 YDS:108 TD:0 INT:0
Tom Brady performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:14/23 YDS:159 TD:1 INT:2
Russell Wilson performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:20/32 YDS:178 TD:2 INT:0
2. Russell Wilson is 10-0 vs Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.
3. Strongest betting trends: In the history of the NFL, only 9 matchups has happened involving two #1 seeds at the super bowl. The NFC is 7-2 ATS.
There are three NFL Conference Championship OT winners in last 15 years and subsequently all of them won the Super Bowl. They are all from NFC, 2011 New York Giants, 2009 New Orleans Saints and 2007 NY Giants.
4. Fade the public advantage: The public is all over Patriots.
Sharps never judge a football team based on what they did last week.
Every year the public loses on the super bowl most of the time. You have to play the math.
5. +1 ATS advantage: Even if the Patriots win, I can only hope they win by 1 point to push my bet. When the line was at +1.5 I was hoping for the line to move to +2. But I'll take the +1 before it goes back down to a possible PK.
6. Weather factor: The Packers vs Seahawks, the rain negatively effected both Rodgers and Wilson. That's why Wilson performed poorly. The super bowl will be played in a dome stadium in Arizona. Weather will not be a factor and expect Wilson to perform well.
"To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." -Sun Tzu, The Art Of War
"All progress takes place outside the comfort zone." -Michael John Bobak
"All our Knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to the understanding, and ends with reason. There is nothing higher than reason." -Immanuel Kant
And if for some reason I get this wrong, congrats to all the Patriots bettors.
I have a 10 units on -110 bet on the Seahawks and 1 unit on +550 bet on the Seahawks future during the offseason.
I maintain money management by betting less than 5% of current total bankroll.
Money management requires self discipline.
"Self-discipline: is the ability to control one's feelings and overcome one's weaknesses; the ability to pursue what one thinks is right despite temptations to abandon it."
I have strong convincing arguments based on science, math and philosophy that defends the Seattle Seahawks.
Betting on intellectual reasons > Betting on emotional reasons
Solid physical evidence > Lack of physical evidence
1. Defense wins championships.
#11 Patriots offense vs #1 Seahawks defense
#9 Seahawks offense vs #13 Patriots defense
Patriots and Seahawks have a common opponent that defeated them this season, the Kansas City Cheifs.
Alex Smith performed against the Patriots defense:
CP/ATT:20/26 YDS:248 TD:3 INT:0
Alex Smith performed against the Seahawks defense:
CP/ATT:11/16 YDS:108 TD:0 INT:0
Tom Brady performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:14/23 YDS:159 TD:1 INT:2
Russell Wilson performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:20/32 YDS:178 TD:2 INT:0
2. Russell Wilson is 10-0 vs Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.
3. Strongest betting trends: In the history of the NFL, only 9 matchups has happened involving two #1 seeds at the super bowl. The NFC is 7-2 ATS.
There are three NFL Conference Championship OT winners in last 15 years and subsequently all of them won the Super Bowl. They are all from NFC, 2011 New York Giants, 2009 New Orleans Saints and 2007 NY Giants.
4. Fade the public advantage: The public is all over Patriots.
Sharps never judge a football team based on what they did last week.
Every year the public loses on the super bowl most of the time. You have to play the math.
5. +1 ATS advantage: Even if the Patriots win, I can only hope they win by 1 point to push my bet. When the line was at +1.5 I was hoping for the line to move to +2. But I'll take the +1 before it goes back down to a possible PK.
6. Weather factor: The Packers vs Seahawks, the rain negatively effected both Rodgers and Wilson. That's why Wilson performed poorly. The super bowl will be played in a dome stadium in Arizona. Weather will not be a factor and expect Wilson to perform well.
"To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." -Sun Tzu, The Art Of War
"All progress takes place outside the comfort zone." -Michael John Bobak
"All our Knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to the understanding, and ends with reason. There is nothing higher than reason." -Immanuel Kant
good point Gun...
