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Gaucher ate the wing dingsComment -
I could see Monday's Headline
"Seahawks Repeat!"Comment -
Thanks astonComment -
Seaweed is on Pats. This is a jinx thread.
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<header id="yui_3_16_0_1_1422429909050_1702" class="header"> Simulator runs Super Bowl matchup 50,000 times, and winner is ...
</header> <figure class="small-cover get-lbdata-from-dom go-to-slideshow-lightbox " data-id="ab22f087-668d-35d5-b2d7-cef583bf7cc7">
</figure> Jan 27, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks fans during media day for Super Bowl XLIX at US Airways …
The Super Bowl has a point spread that is very close in Las Vegas, but a computer simulator has figured out who will win.
Using an astounding array of analytics, the Predictalator on PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. And 57.5 percent of the time in its simulations, the Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots.
And from these tens of thousands of simulations, the site has the Seahawks most likely winning by a 24-20 score.
According to the folks who run the Predictalator, the Seahawks are “simply, the team more capable of dominating.”
“For the second year in a row, we like Seattle when the vast majority of the public – over 70 percent based on available betting information – believes the AFC is going to win. Much of that perception is likely based off of what happened during conference championship weekend,” Paul Bessire, general manager of PredictionMachine.com told Yahoo Sports.
“I would caution against that mindset, acknowledging that the most important player on the field for the Seahawks (Russell Wilson) had the worst day of his professional career against one of the best teams in the NFL and Seattle still won. It’s tough to expect anyone, Wilson or otherwise, to play that poorly in the Super Bowl. If he and the team around him play up to expectations, Seattle looks like a clear favorite.”
The site uses a variety of inputs to generate strengths and weaknesses for each team, and then lets it simulate 50,000 games. Each game simulates each play, making for a maddening amount of data to cull.
Last year, the Predictalator went against conventional wisdom and picked the Seahawks to beat the heavily favored Denver Broncos. Seattle won 43-8.
In the scenario that emerged from the 50,000 simulations this year, the Seahawks limit Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to 235 passing yards (the Patriots were 3-4 this season in games that Brady threw for less than 250 yards, including Week 17 when he was pulled after playing in the first half).
As for Brady and the Patriots, not even deflate-gate could touch the Predictalator. Not even once in 50,000 simulations.
“Every ball in every simulation we conduct in the regular or postseason is inflated to the proper 12.5 to 13.5 PSI. In 50,000 simulations, that’s a whole lot of balls, none of which seems to lose two-plus PSI during the games,” Bessire said. “That’s 1.5 million properly inflated balls for a normal game and 6 million for this week. It’s an assumption worth revisiting for future seasons, but, fortunately the Super Bowl is the only game all year in which the NFL provides all the balls.”Comment -
Did weeder release his premium play yet?Comment -
I'm already ahead of you, Seaweed.
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Patriots win
Doug Baldwin is the Seahawks top receiver
enough saidComment -
Everything I see shows public 70-85% on PatsComment -
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Seaweed, GO FUKK YOURSELFComment -
This game is such a coin toss. What a suckers betComment -
"For the second time in three nights, the New England Patriots were awoken in their hotel by a false fire alarm. On Tuesday, the alarm sounded at 1:30 a.m. for approximately 10 minutes. The incident was deemed an “anomaly” by the hotel according to Jeff Darlington, and was quickly forgotten amid the hustle and bustle of media day. Thursday at 5am, it happened again!"Comment -
7-7 (6-7 ATS) +133 Units
This is one of the more anticipated Super Bowls I have looked at in a while in what amounts to a matchup of one of the most successful dynasties of this era, the NE Patriots vs. a current dynasty-in-the-making, the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams have gotten to this point by way of home-field advantage although the conference championship game result were on opposite ends. Currently looks about 72/28 betting geared toward NE at a pk line.
NE Offense vs. SEA Defense
With NE coming off a shredding of the Colts defense by Blount, you would expect the Pats to stay with the same gameplan, correct? In my opinion, that won't be the case as it is well-known just how tough it is to run consistently at the Seahawks D and the Pats do not want to become predictable as the game goes along. GB actually succeeded in staying with that strategy but it can just be the fact Seattle was not on their game that day.
Im expecting Pats to run a lot of 5 WR sets to try to counteract the pass rush. They likely will try to run multiple rub routes to open throwing lanes for Brady to get the ball out quick. Look for the Pats to attack the SEA nickelbacks Maxwell and Lane by opening up the field by running deep routes down the field to occupy Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor. They will do this in an effort to also get Gronk in one-one-one situations. They also may run Blount occassionally in order to keep the pass rushers honest.
In 2012 the Pats used a similar strategy and moved the ball effectively all game as Brady racked up over 300 yds receiving outside of the fact Sherman wasnt playing then. Last yr the Broncos failed to have success spreading the field but most of it was because they were destroyed by the pass rush up front by Mebane, Avril, Bennett and company. The key for the Pats here becomes their pass protection and how it will hold up during the course of 4 quarters.
SEA Offense vs. NE Defense
Russell Wilson back in his 2nd consecutive SB is ironically coming off his worst performance this yr. having been stifled and confused by the GB defense for 3.5 quarters only to lead a miraculous comeback. A couple things to take note of, is that there are a couple of ingredients missing from their offense from a yr ago, Harvin, Tate, and Zach Miller are gone as well as having lost speedster Richardson couple weeks ago. The bread and butter of their offense, Marshawn Lynch looks to put his Beast Mode display to work in this game.
Theres really nothing tricky about the Hawks offense. They go as Lynch goes and a lot of their success is dependent on their zone-blocking principles to find cutback lanes for Lynch to run through or use Wilson as a read-option threat on the backside. The rest is improvisation from Wilson who can either pick up 1st downs with his legs or throw on the run. Their top target outside is Baldwin and Kearse is their downfield threat.
From the Pats perspective, look for them to stay disciplined instead of trying to sell out to stop Lynch. Why? Because this is exactly the formula the Hawks use to try to create misdirection plays with Wilson's legs or Lynch's cutback vision to create big plays. For the most part I think the Pats trust their front seven can be effective as they were terrific vs the run in the 2nd half of the year. Against Wilson the Pats are likely to use their ends to set the edge and keep Russell inside the pocket where he is not a very effective passer, only 23rd in QBR in-the-pocket in 2014. Look for multiple LBs Ninkovich, Collins, and Hightower to shadow Wilson if he should decide to take off for the open field.
In the secondary Revis gets the assignment on Baldwin and it will be up to Luke Wilson, Kearse, and Lockette to find open spaces in the defense but it wont be easy as the Pats secondary is capable of covering for extended play when Wilson scrambles out of the pocket.
As difficult it is to pick a winner here I am going to side with the Patriots because of a key advantage. I believe that Belicheck will have an easier time figuring out how to contain the Hawks offense because they are not complex on offense and for a defensive genius like Belicheck he is also more than likely to throw a few disguises at Wilson and test the young QB in a game of chess.
At the same time as much respect as I give the Hawks defense I feel though GB exposed a few weaknesses with their defense and if a strategy is employed effectively by spreading the field and negating much of the pass rush Brady has the arm and accuracy to make the quick throws into the open spaces. I feel that the Hawks are also not as consistent on pass rushing this yr because of the Mebane injury and having lost Clemons and few others. Also it remains to be seen how Sherman and Thomas will hold up not only against the pass but in run support and it may affect their bump-n-run strategy and how well itll work with one healthy arm.
Throw in the the deflate-gate scandal and the bulletin board material that provides Pats players more fuel for motivation I believe that will have them even more focused. The Pats have a shutdown secondary capable of dominating for long stretches which was the Broncos' Achiles Heel last yr.. I also feel like the right side of SEA's O-line is vulnerable and Belicheck will send some pressure that way no doubt. In the end I expect a great game with possible lead changes and ties but like New England to claim another Super Bowl victory and deny a repeat to the Seahawks. GL to all.
The Play is New England PK 100 Unit PlayComment -
well rocket when you have been tee-bagged as much as seebreeze; it is sure to cause memory loss. I bet seattle last year but thank god I didn't see that thread. I agree with him because nfl is going to take some heat in deflategate if this happens. As I remember; Baltimore is the one that told indy about the lightened balls. I don't remember ne blowing out baltimore.Comment -
Fukk you seaweedComment
