Conundrum for tonights game

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  • Dan Kelly
    SBR MVP
    • 02-19-11
    • 1332

    #1
    Conundrum for tonights game
    I am currently in 2nd place in an NCAA Football Bowl Pool - straight up picks, 22 entries, 2nd place gets his $50 back, winner gets the rest of the pot ($1050). I am guaranteed 2nd place, 3rd place can't catch me.
    To win the pool I have to pick tonights winner AND the opposite team that the guy in 1st place picks - the guy in 1st place just has to pick the winner OR the same team I pick. The only thing I could find out about the guy is that he is an SEC fan.


    I figure I've got to take Ohio State because he will obviously take the favorite - if I were in his shoes that's what I'd do and I'd have $400 on the middle (would've been nice to get the 7.5 that was available for a day.) But, maybe he thinks about it and takes Ohio State so that he has the pool won a minute after kickoff.


    I welcome any advice, suggestions, similar anecdotes, discussion, hypotheses, or ideas.


    BOL
  • Big Bear
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 11-01-11
    • 43253

    #2
    welcome to the club Dan Kelly.

    No Coincidences will be excited when he sees you have joined us.

    i hear you are a great capper.
    Comment
    • Chi_archie
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-22-08
      • 63172

      #3
      I am in some yahoo pickem contests where you can see the opponents picks 5 mins before kick off

      any ability to do so here?

      i'd say take Ohio St. and tip your cap to him if he happens to do the same out of strategy

      and look for opportunities to hedge via live betting
      Comment
      • THam12
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-12-13
        • 12640

        #4
        LOL at those payouts....
        Comment
        • Big Bear
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 11-01-11
          • 43253

          #5
          Originally posted by Dan Kelly
          I am currently in 2nd place in an NCAA Football Bowl Pool - straight up picks, 22 entries, 2nd place gets his $50 back, winner gets the rest of the pot ($1050). I am guaranteed 2nd place, 3rd place can't catch me.
          To win the pool I have to pick tonights winner AND the opposite team that the guy in 1st place picks - the guy in 1st place just has to pick the winner OR the same team I pick. The only thing I could find out about the guy is that he is an SEC fan.


          I figure I've got to take Ohio State because he will obviously take the favorite - if I were in his shoes that's what I'd do and I'd have $400 on the middle (would've been nice to get the 7.5 that was available for a day.) But, maybe he thinks about it and takes Ohio State so that he has the pool won a minute after kickoff.


          I welcome any advice, suggestions, similar anecdotes, discussion, hypotheses, or ideas.


          BOL
          if he is in first place he is probably pretty sharp.

          and if he is sharp ... why would he obviously be on the square side?
          Comment
          • Dan Kelly
            SBR MVP
            • 02-19-11
            • 1332

            #6
            Originally posted by Chi_archie
            I am in some yahoo pickem contests where you can see the opponents picks 5 mins before kick off

            any ability to do so here?

            i'd say take Ohio St. and tip your cap to him if he happens to do the same out of strategy

            and look for opportunities to hedge via live betting
            No, you don't see their picks until a few minutes after kickoff.

            I do think you're right on with the pick Arch.
            Comment
            • Dan Kelly
              SBR MVP
              • 02-19-11
              • 1332

              #7
              Yep, I think so Bear
              Comment
              • Ted Sheckler
                SBR MVP
                • 01-08-14
                • 1936

                #8
                Message the prick and ask him to chop. He'll likely say no. Doesn't hurt to ask though.

                Is it the Yahoo pick em? Because they lock in and show the other team as soon as the "scheduled kickoff" time is up. So if the game says 830 kickoff, it has shown for every other game right at 830. And we know the kickoff doesn't actually happen til 845 ish, so you may have a window.

                Or take Ohio St assuming he takes Oregon, and hop for a Ohio State TD right out the gate and hope for a live bet spot if you feel shaky about it, or if you both take the same team.
                Comment
                • rkelly110
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 10-05-09
                  • 39691

                  #9
                  Hello son. 2nd place? Good job!

                  You are doing fine w/o worrying about his picks, why are you worrying now? Stay true to how you pick your picks.
                  In other words, run your own race, it's gotten you where you are.

                  GL
                  Comment
                  • Dan Kelly
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-19-11
                    • 1332

                    #10
                    good idea on the chop - worst case, I insult his intelligence

                    Yes it is being run in Yahoo - but there is no window, once all the picks are shown they are no longer changeable - it doesn't matter when the picks are shown
                    Comment
                    • pavyracer
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-12-07
                      • 82839

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Dan Kelly
                      I am currently in 2nd place in an NCAA Football Bowl Pool - straight up picks, 22 entries, 2nd place gets his $50 back, winner gets the rest of the pot ($1050). I am guaranteed 2nd place, 3rd place can't catch me.
                      To win the pool I have to pick tonights winner AND the opposite team that the guy in 1st place picks - the guy in 1st place just has to pick the winner OR the same team I pick. The only thing I could find out about the guy is that he is an SEC fan.


                      I figure I've got to take Ohio State because he will obviously take the favorite - if I were in his shoes that's what I'd do and I'd have $400 on the middle (would've been nice to get the 7.5 that was available for a day.) But, maybe he thinks about it and takes Ohio State so that he has the pool won a minute after kickoff.


                      I welcome any advice, suggestions, similar anecdotes, discussion, hypotheses, or ideas.


                      BOL
                      Take Oregon in your Bowl Pool and bet Ohio St ML with your book.

                      PS. You can also wait and make a 2nd half bet once you know his pick.
                      Comment
                      • Harry N. Lloyd
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-26-08
                        • 4810

                        #12
                        OP, the guy in first will take Oregon. And why not, they're favored. He can hedge himself by grabbing the Buckeyes on the ML. It's far more likely he'll be thinking this way, than how to outsmart the guy in 2nd. You are doing the right thing by taking Ohio State and rooting for the upset.
                        Comment
                        • Madison
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-16-11
                          • 6455

                          #13
                          Originally posted by pavyracer
                          Take Oregon in your Bowl Pool and bet Ohio St ML with your book.

                          PS. You can also wait and make a 2nd half bet once you know his pick.
                          This
                          Comment
                          • Jayvegas420
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 03-09-11
                            • 28213

                            #14
                            This is carseller's ghost.

                            You wanna bet 200 bet points Dan?!?!
                            Comment
                            • Dan Kelly
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-19-11
                              • 1332

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Jayvegas420
                              This is carseller's ghost.

                              You wanna bet 200 bet points Dan?!?!
                              No thanks.
                              Comment
                              • broadway6
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-14-09
                                • 13337

                                #16
                                If I'm the guy I pick Oregon and hedge osu ml. Guarantee profit
                                Comment
                                • Dan Kelly
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-19-11
                                  • 1332

                                  #17
                                  He took Oregon
                                  I took Ohio State.

                                  Thanks for all of the input


                                  BOL
                                  Comment
                                  • cburland10
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 11-26-13
                                    • 801

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Dan Kelly
                                    He took Oregon
                                    I took Ohio State.

                                    Thanks for all of the input


                                    BOL
                                    GL man
                                    Comment
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