Here is where I cap the lines for each game ONLY giving 3 for home field.
I used 2 different formulas, one with more emphasis on recent play vs overall season play.
Patriots -4.5 to -5.5
Seahawks -13.5 to -15
Packers -2.5 to -3
Broncos -10 to -12.5
Patriots are my least likely team to lose this weekend considering the books inflation and the fact that of all 4 teams the have the lowest home field advantage on paper. I would never underestimate bill belichick's mastermind and ability to prepare his team given extra time. To me it's bet NE to move on or nothing.
Seattle hasn't really performed as they did last year. The Cards and Rams (first half) have shown that facing a stiff defense at home they can struggle. While I wouldn't call Panthers defense elite. I will say they are having a good upswing at the right time and it will all boil down to Cam. If he keeps missing wide open targets like the AZ game then they are done. If cam can settle in and make a few plays I think the Carolina defense can stonewall the Seahawks ground and pound game. I see value in Seahawks and think the moneyline is worth a shot.
GB vs Dallas. Did you know that both Denver and GB at home have averaged a 13 point home field advantage this year. That's tops in the league. My beef is the lack of competition GB has faced at home. Besides NE they haven't faced anyone else inside the top 10 at home. Same case can be mad for Dallas on the road, 1 top 10 on the road. I like the balance in cowboys offense and the pop they have 66 TD's between the big 3. GB boat races teams at home and if Cowboys don't effectively run the ball control the clock and win the 3rd down battles, their defense will get exploited and run out of gas. This should make for the best game of the weekend. I am going to side with Dallas here even though the ML is too rewarding.
Denver. To say that Denver limped down the stretch is an understatement. When it gets cold manning just isn't manning. While I am impressed they effectively ran the ball and their defense played to that style of winning, I can't say the jury is out yet, if manning can win a outdoor cold playoff game. Colts are a really good home team with a subpar defense. They are 0-3 on the road vs top 10 teams. The one thing I will say is Luck is fantastic in pressure situations and with a healthy set of targets he is going to be gritty until the end. I absolutely love the way he performs in these kind if games. With him at the helm his team is never out if it. I do not see any value in siding with Denver here. I would make Manning prove otherwise, that he can win these type of games, before you lay a cent on him. My only play here is Colts ML. I think the under inflation speaks for itself.
Thats it men
Panthers ML
Cowboys ML
Colts ML
looking to hit a pair
GL
I used 2 different formulas, one with more emphasis on recent play vs overall season play.
Patriots -4.5 to -5.5
Seahawks -13.5 to -15
Packers -2.5 to -3
Broncos -10 to -12.5
Patriots are my least likely team to lose this weekend considering the books inflation and the fact that of all 4 teams the have the lowest home field advantage on paper. I would never underestimate bill belichick's mastermind and ability to prepare his team given extra time. To me it's bet NE to move on or nothing.
Seattle hasn't really performed as they did last year. The Cards and Rams (first half) have shown that facing a stiff defense at home they can struggle. While I wouldn't call Panthers defense elite. I will say they are having a good upswing at the right time and it will all boil down to Cam. If he keeps missing wide open targets like the AZ game then they are done. If cam can settle in and make a few plays I think the Carolina defense can stonewall the Seahawks ground and pound game. I see value in Seahawks and think the moneyline is worth a shot.
GB vs Dallas. Did you know that both Denver and GB at home have averaged a 13 point home field advantage this year. That's tops in the league. My beef is the lack of competition GB has faced at home. Besides NE they haven't faced anyone else inside the top 10 at home. Same case can be mad for Dallas on the road, 1 top 10 on the road. I like the balance in cowboys offense and the pop they have 66 TD's between the big 3. GB boat races teams at home and if Cowboys don't effectively run the ball control the clock and win the 3rd down battles, their defense will get exploited and run out of gas. This should make for the best game of the weekend. I am going to side with Dallas here even though the ML is too rewarding.
Denver. To say that Denver limped down the stretch is an understatement. When it gets cold manning just isn't manning. While I am impressed they effectively ran the ball and their defense played to that style of winning, I can't say the jury is out yet, if manning can win a outdoor cold playoff game. Colts are a really good home team with a subpar defense. They are 0-3 on the road vs top 10 teams. The one thing I will say is Luck is fantastic in pressure situations and with a healthy set of targets he is going to be gritty until the end. I absolutely love the way he performs in these kind if games. With him at the helm his team is never out if it. I do not see any value in siding with Denver here. I would make Manning prove otherwise, that he can win these type of games, before you lay a cent on him. My only play here is Colts ML. I think the under inflation speaks for itself.
Thats it men
Panthers ML
Cowboys ML
Colts ML
looking to hit a pair
GL
