Dollars2Donuts NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB and assorted sports thread - Beginning January 2015

[Dollars2Donuts]

Glad to see you on Winnipeg, as I am also on them, D2D.

Yup. Won't be easy without any of their top 4 D....but their forwards are playing exceptionally well....and even though SJ has been keeping the puck out of the net (before last game) in this one they are going to be looking to fire on all cylinders. Last game they were embarrassed.....look for a lot of penalties (thus PPs) and a lot of physical play.

4-2 Winnipeg.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Look at this goof updating other threads.

Haha this is like Hitler calling other people inhumane. Jump off a bridge already man....you're so useless.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Liking the Knicks vs. Grizzlies UNDER 191.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Liking the Knicks vs. Grizzlies UNDER 191.

Yep, we have seen some regression with Memphis' offense the last little bit, and lord knows the Knicks can seriously struggle anytime anyone plays them a little bit tough. Conley should be able to control the game and space, and the Knicks depth is a real question.

I see this as a 90-82 type of game.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Adding:

285499199-1

1/5/15 4:15pm

$453.00

$300.00

Pending

1/5/15 8:00pm International Hockey 1734 Canada U-20 -1 -151* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Russia U-20

[fitguy67]

bumped to new page for convenience:

ytd (d.002/uJ04): 10-10, +$26.50 (aka. +0.26u)

u guyz will have to get used to some of my abbreviations/notations

lower-cased 1-character days of week are: m t w r f s u

upper-cased 1-character months of year are: J F M A Y U L G S O N D

and when i refer to a date, it always means "including all relevant action up to the end of that day"

so the boldfaced statement, means in full...
"year to date" (aka. "cumulative" or "full history") report
including all action up to end of business day#002 (*always 3 digits)
which is the calendar date Sunday, January 04 (*always 2 digits)
the record shows 10 wins and 10 losses (*pushes--once initially noted--are henceforth ignored)
and, where 1 unit = $100...a net financial change of +$26.50 resulted
__________

henceforth as soon as you see a newcomer over my notation...please quickly (and politely) refer them to this post (#76)...

[fitguy67]

here we go

b	t	cle/phi,u 193	105	100
b	t	hou/chi,u 200	105	100
b	t	nyk/mem,u 191	157.5	150
b	s	uta	150	120
b	t	lal/por,u 209.5	154.5	150
h	t	sjs/win,o 5	131	100
h	s	win	120	100
b	t	den/min,u 208.5	157.5	150
b	t	was/nor,u 200.5	102	100
b	s	lac-5	105	100
x	s	canU20-1	453	300

first col=mkt (only 5 possible categories): B, F, H, M as obvious, and X for eXtra-curricular, such as tonight's non-NHL hockey)

second col is bet-type (only two possible categories):

s= side (of any handicap including 0, aka. pk/ml and for any portion of any event...eg. 1q, 2h, reg, full-game...all betting on a side's performance, with or without a handicap)

t= total (o/u any number of anything...almost all props are actually totals, even a "yes/no" prop is really o/u 0.5)

next comes the bet-description, using a simple 3-letter city code, not the nicknames

next two columns are the "risk" and the "targeted" amounts

the last column is for entering the "grade" (WLP)...which once entered will trigger the rest to auto-calculate/generated a report as appropriate

[Dollars2Donuts]

A funny start.....not terrible, but nothing to write home about. If Canada can score an empty netter here....it gets a lot better....wow, Duclair missed. Ouch. And then another miss with 38 seconds to go.


Also, effing Troy Daniels makes a 3 with ZERO time on the clock....and I lose the Minny under. NO TIME a 3.....that means that 65% of the time we win there.....or more....

Canada missed the EN again....ouch again and again....

And again....and now with 8 seconds left, no chance.

5 efforts at the empty net....nothing.

The NBA loss was more heart breaking though.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Adding:

285581734-1

1/5/15 10:34pm

$157.50

$150.00

Pending

1/5/15 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 721 Oklahoma City Thunder/Golden State Warriors Over 216½ -105*

[Dollars2Donuts]

Wow....lost that NBA game with a nothing 3 at the buzzer......and then lost the San Jose NHL game with 5 seconds left in the game 3-2.....

Then Canada is up 5-1 and I have them -1....and push.

Kind of a weird night....can I get a last second win? I don't even want 3....just 1.

[fitguy67]

third day in a row with MORE than the normal share of improbable beats...

yet treading water $-wise...

right now 3-3-1, -$32.50 on the day...and 13-13, -$6 overall

withstanding the shit-storm of bad-breaks...and down a cup of coffee...

u won't have to post a shot tonight cuz only 3 late NBA games to grade...

gluk

[DigBick86]

GL this year DD hope for an even better new year

[lakerboy]

Haha this is like Hitler calling other people inhumane. Jump off a bridge already man....you're so useless.

you tailing people now you persian dumbfukk?

[Dollars2Donuts]

If the live betting on the OKC bet gets back up to 216.5 I may just lay off this wager.

Nobody can make anything around the hoop. It is at 214.5 right now.

Check for updates.

[lakerboy]

d2d you are a true gambler

[Dollars2Donuts]

These teams cannot shoot free throws tonight.....unreal. 10 of 21 for GSW and 14 of 28 for OKC? Is that possible?

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yep....it came back to 215.5 and never got to 216 again.....too bad. Durant and Westbrook a total of 11 for 42 from the field.....even with that this game should be going over with all of these missed FTs.....

Weird night.

And 2 of 19 from 3 point land for OKC....lol

EDIT.....I hope people that were NOT invested in the game decided to make a live play on the under.....easy money here.

I could have had under 219.5 at HT.....shoulda jumped on it to try for the middle/to get out of the game.

All we need is a 68 point 4th Q....LOL

[lakerboy]

Under was a pinny play

[Dollars2Donuts]

Under was a pinny play

Pretty hard to know that OKC was going to shoot 27%. This will be the worst game in the history of those two guys combined. 5-21 and 3-16.

I need both teams to just start chucking 3s and making them....won't happen.

Also, in the other game we have Atl at 10-21 from downtown and the Clips 5-21. That will be the game right there....chenge those two numbers around and the Clips are up 23.

Oh well, on to tomorrow....hopefully things even out a little.

[Dollars2Donuts]

And the game still got to 208....even though OKC was 30-98 from the field and 5-28 from 3.....and Westbrook and Durent combine for 8-37 from the field. Worst night they have ever had when both healthy.

Crazy numbers. Down a unit and a half or something overall....let's get through this little break even patch and light it up.

[fitguy67]

not a good night, but not terrible either after three days rich in piss-offs

no need to do anything, D...insta-update (which frees up the body, mind, and spirit to attack he next day with a clean slate) is here!

just chek for any errors grading...if the risk/target amounts are ok...then the only other source of possible error is in assigning the WLP's correctly

previous (d.002/uJ04) ytd: 10-10, +$26.5

today (d.003/mJ05) changes: 4-6-2, -$242.50

new (d.003/mJ05) ytd: 14-16, -$216

today's action: play-by-play

mkt	type	play	risk	target	grade	net.this	net.all
b	t	cle/phi,u 193	105	100	W	100	126.5
b	t	hou/chi,u 200	105	100	L	-105	21.5
b	t	nyk/mem,u 191	157.5	150	W	150	171.5
b	s	uta	150	120	L	-150	21.5
b	t	lal/por,u 209.5	154.5	150	W	150	171.5
h	t	sjs/win,o 5	131	100	P		171.5
h	s	win	120	100	L	-120	51.5
b	t	den/min,u 208.5	157.5	150	L	-157.5	-106
b	t	was/nor,u 200.5	102	100	W	100	-6
b	s	lac-5	105	100	L	-105	-111
x	s	canU20-1	453	300	P		-111
b	t	okc/gsw,o 216.5	105	100	L	-105	-216

note: these results are tentative until the next set of plays are released for a new day...if you see anything wrong, speak now or forever withhold insinuations of intentionally-engineered inaccuracy

[Dollars2Donuts]

285614462-1	1/6/15 4:20am	$105.00	$100.00	Pending	1/6/15 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 501 Phoenix Suns/Milwaukee Bucks Under 209 -105*
285614462-2	1/6/15 4:20am	$225.00	$150.00	Pending	1/6/15 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 53 Buffalo Sabres +1½ -150* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Jersey Devils
285614462-3	1/6/15 4:20am	$180.00	$150.00	Pending	1/6/15 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 57 Carolina Hurricanes/Nashville Predators Over 5 -120*
285614462-4	1/6/15 4:20am	$100.00	$145.00	Pending	1/6/15 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 59 San Jose Sharks +145* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Minnesota Wild
285614462-5	1/6/15 4:20am	$100.00	$220.00	Pending	1/6/15 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 61 Colorado Avalanche +220* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Chicago Blackhawks
285614462-6	1/6/15 4:20am	$150.00	$165.00	Pending	1/6/15 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 63 Columbus Blue Jackets/Dallas Stars Over 5½ +110*
285614462-7	1/6/15 4:20am	$155.00	$100.00	Pending	1/6/15 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 65 St. Louis Blues -155* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Arizona Coyotes

[gregmav1]

Agree with your bucks/suns pick, been looking at that one for a few days... Line is up to 210 if you want to put some more on it, just fyi.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Agree with your bucks/suns pick, been looking at that one for a few days... Line is up to 210 if you want to put some more on it, just fyi.

Yeah, i should never bet unders the night before.....in this case I knew I would be very busy throughout the day.....much better to hit unders the hour before the game.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

nice early hop on the stars over. see any value in blue jackets tonight?

[fitguy67]

see, my pop-psychology driven idea is working...got right back on the horse..and submitted plays without skipping a beat a...good stuff

if you don't have to rub your nose in your own results when they're unpleasant (cuz someone else does it)...it's far easier to disengage from the bottom line and think about the next day as a new day unrelated to the previous ones

the daily change to the overall $-position is, over the long haul, just another step on the journey...some forward, some backward...but if you're picking value, as you're previous track record indicates you are...then when you lump 'em all in together...the pleasant up moves will a bit more than offset the unpleasant down-moves...eventually leaves a profit most (but certainly not every) month...

i thought letting you not have to roll around in your own numbers, especially on a down swing (funny how the numbers are easy to look at when they got that " + " thingy in front of them) would keep your threads far more fluid

ideally, you'll get to the point eventually that each day's result, whether pos or neg, don't bother you at all...neither reflects on your worth as a capper...(as John Havlicek once said, "when you win don't crow, when you lose don't cry")...you'll be able to blast 'em out like brushing your teeth, win or lose...

eventually, someone else'll be able to take over this chore...and down the road you'll find it just as easy to update a losing day as a winning day yourself...

hopefully today's a good one for us to lift the spirits in DonutLand, lol

[Dollars2Donuts]

Lol, the spirits in DonutLand are taking a kicking already. What is going on in New Jersey? 3-0 and we will be trying to catch up all night. Enroth has been very good.....three goals against on 7 shots....that is very bad for us.

[fitguy67]

putting this nice baby to bed

previous (d.003/mJ05) ytd: 14-16, -$216

today (d.004/tJ06) changes: 5-1-1, +$505

new (d.004/tJ06) ytd: 19-17, +$289

today's play-by-play breakdown

mkt	type	details	risk	target	grade	net	-216
b	t	pho/mil,u 209	105	100	W	100	-116
h	s	buf+1.5	225	150	L	-225	-341
h	t	car/nas,o 5	180	150	P		-341
h	s	sjs	100	145	W	145	-196
h	s	col	100	220	W	220	24
h	t	cbj/dal,o 5.5	150	165	W	165	189
h	s	stl	155	100	W	100	289

just like that!

___________

awkward topic time, my friends...

some love for the bearer of good news/keeper of the stats will be appreciated...

i'm doing this as a public service to help smooth out the D-man's biorhythms and keep the plays comin'' for you guys even during slides like the three days preceding today's nice little dinner-bell

so put a few coins in the blind piano player's jar will ya'...ya' cheap bastids!

[Dollars2Donuts]

putting this nice baby to bed

previous (d.003/mJ05) ytd: 14-16, -$216

today (d.004/tJ06) changes: 5-1-1, +$505

new (d.004/tJ06) ytd: 19-17, +$289

today's play-by-play breakdown

mkt	type	details	risk	target	grade	net	-216
b	t	pho/mil,u 209	105	100	W	100	-116
h	s	buf+1.5	225	150	L	-225	-341
h	t	car/nas,o 5	180	150	P		-341
h	s	sjs	100	145	W	145	-196
h	s	col	100	220	W	220	24
h	t	cbj/dal,o 5.5	150	165	W	165	189
h	s	stl	155	100	W	100	289

just like that!

___________

awkward topic time, my friends...

some love for the bearer of good news/keeper of the stats will be appreciated...

i'm doing this as a public service to help smooth out the D-man's biorhythms and keep the plays comin'' for you guys even during slides like the three days preceding today's nice little dinner-bell

so put a few coins in the blind piano player's jar will ya'...ya' cheap bastids!

Thanks man, the work is much appreciated. Hopefully, today is a sign that things are back to normal.

[gregmav1]

So 2 questions... I just tried to give fitguy points but it wouldn't let me. Anyone know why? and 2. Can I do anything with betpoints if I'm not pro? If not, what can you use them on if you go pro?

[Dollars2Donuts]

So 2 questions... I just tried to give fitguy points but it wouldn't let me. Anyone know why? and 2. Can I do anything with betpoints if I'm not pro? If not, what can you use them on if you go pro?

As a non-pro you can only give out two per day per poster.

As a PRO you can buy stuff in the store....check it out on the right hand side of the page....SBR Store. If is worth it IMO. And you can wager with those points and they tend to add up.

[fitguy67]

damn, D...quintupled the campaign's target in the first few minutes...

i'm rich...thinkin' of quittin' the day job now, lol

maybe just follow you around, impersonating a waiter at whatever restaurant you go to

[Dollars2Donuts]

damn, D...quintupled the target in the first few minutes...

i'm rich...thinkin' of quittin' the day job now, lol

maybe just follow you around, impersonating a waiter at whatever restaurant you go to

What's 500 points between friends.

Just to let you know, the last thread I had managed to post through the good and bad for the most part. Even if posted by a third party, when you have a bad day it is harder to be motivated going in. The toughest past is the beginning....

Right now I feel added pressure. I am walking a thin line between being up and down. Every other time I have started a tracking thread I have come out of the gates and been up big immediately....this time it feels a little different. Once up a grand or two it become a lot easier....a bad day doesn't sewer you completely. I am not used to seeing red numbers....kind of has me sitting on the edge of my chair a little more than usual.

[fitguy67]

you're right about that...each of your last threads (like the epic "first day" thread that lasted for months) have taken off rather dramatically from the start, building a nice cushion...making it much easier to weather the slides cuz it's just house money

i've always liked your aggressive "carpet bombing" approach to the game...in this thread just keep firing at the value you see, with each day, and each play considered independently...winning lately?...as han solo says "great kid...don't get cocky"...losing lately?, forget it and place exeactly the same plays at exactly the same weights as you'd be putting on if this were day#1 of a spankin' new thread you were jazzed about

i'll stay here as your co-pilot/statistician and track the whole "bumpy up-ride"...building up a hell-of-a large data set as we go, cuz at 300-or-so plays a month it won't take long at all to log a few thousand in this thread...

this will be a long challenging grind so take as many "mental health" and "demands of real life" days as and when you need them...i just wanted to help with the thread's boring house-keeping stuff so you could concentrate on the more challenging, creative stuff of selecting and weighting plays...

"character is what's left after the enthusiasm wears off" is one of my favorite quotes...so let's build some character and see where this bank-roll roller-coaster leads us, not crowing about up days, not crying about down days...i'm curious as to what sort of yield/ROI you'll hit, but pretty sure it'll be positive...even tho' there will be many many down days, many down weeks, and even a few down months along the way...

let's embrace the grind and cultivate the skills and character along the way necessary to patiently, intelligently pull money out of these markets for a full calendar year...

[fitguy67]

Under was a pinny play

hey LB, can you explain exactly what constitures a "pinny play"...i understand it's based on recognizing an "opinionated line" hung by pinnacle (and have also heard that the greek often hangs lines that sharp cats can similarly recognize)...i get the general idea that you can see the book somehow "tipping it's hand" to use a poker analogy...

but what specific things do you look for to allow you to say with some certainty..."that's a pinny play"?