The Double Up Method

[raiders72001]

player advantage into a house advantage

If you give me 10-1 odds that I can throw a 7 with 2 dice then you cannot turn this player advantage into a house advantage. Of course I could lose but the advantage is still mine.

[Quarm]

its a system for jerks like raiders, every pro knows that NO system gives a player any more advantage

[raiders72001]

Quarm- You want to make a bet that I can win using the Martingale system or do you just want to continue making ignorant statements?

[raiders72001]

every pro knows that NO system gives a player any more advantage

I'll also bet you that you can find craps bets that are player advantage as well as slots bets.

[Ganchrow]

That I will win using the martingale system with an unlimited bankroll and limit. You can tell me the minimum and maximum amount of plays that I can make.

What do you mean by "maximum and minimum" in this context anyway? And what would be the maximum amount you'd be willing to lose?

Before going any further with this I urge you to talk to one or all of your friends Fezzik, WillRaceForFood, or WizardofOdds. It's a bad bet for you, Bro.

[Ganchrow]

I'll also bet you that you can find craps bets that are player advantage as well as slots bets.

In craps?? How is that conceivable?

[natrass]

Raiders said "It's also statistically impossible to turn a player advantage into a house advantage". I was just highlighting that this is not true.

He also thinks that "Theoretically the martingale system is a 100% winning system". I think the less said about this one the better.

Erm ... thats not turned a players advantage into anything .. thats a players individual limitations ... nothing inherent there.

Nothing to do with the basis of a gambling scenario at all ... if the gambler has an infinitely larger bankroll than the casino he can martingale them. Think about it tacomax.

Remember, its not the martingale system as you or I could play ... its a "unlimited" stakes and unlimited bankroll vs. limited casino scenario ... its common sense really i think.

I cant give you a link to help you though. just think about it ... unlimited bankroll versus limited casino ... playing the martingale ... expected outcome???

[raiders72001]

No maximum dollar amount. Just as my dime bet that's going here the money must be posted up with Bill Dozer.

We can do one trial if you would like. Then you can tell me the minimum and maximum amount of bets that I can make using the martingale system. I'm saying that I will win.

I advise you not to make this bet.

[tacomax]

That I will win using the martingale system with an unlimited bankroll and limit. You can tell me the minimum and maximum amount of plays that I can make.

Let's consider a couple of things here. Michael Shackleford (aka the Wizard of Odds) is a Professor of Casino Mathematics at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas. Here are some specific answers he has given to questions regarding the Martingale system.

http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/bettingsystems-martingale.html

On the flip side, raiders thinks that "JJGold is one of the most deep thinking philosophers of the 21st century".

So, are we to believe the word of a Maths Professor or a fantasist with an obsession with a leaf raker?

[raiders72001]

Nothing to do with the basis of a gambling scenario at all ... if the gambler has an infinitely larger bankroll than the casino he can martingale them. Think about it tacomax.

agree

[raiders72001]

taco- I'm willing to back my statements with money. You are an uneducated gambler.

[Ganchrow]

No maximum dollar amount. Just as my dime bet that's going here the money must be posted up with Bill Dozer.

We can do one trial if you would like. Then you can tell me the minimum and maximum amount of bets that I can make using the martingale system. I'm saying that I will win.

I advise you not to make this bet.

So explain to me the precise terms you have an mind. Realize I'm not trying to play against your handicapping so, I'd want to do this based upon something other than than sports betting. Perhaps you could play red/black roulette at an online casino. We could bet, say, your exact profits or losses either over some number of spins or until some dollar threshold is reached.

[raiders72001]

ganchgrow- You can set up the rules if you would like. The only thing is I'm not sure how we can determine the success of each individual bet over the Internet unless we use sports gambling as the test. I would even let you pick the game. I would first give you the spread and you pick the side that I'm on.

If we were in person we could use roulette or just flip aq coin.

[Quarm]

dont waste your time (and maybe money) betting with JJ Gold...erm i mean with slugger...erm i mean with raiders SORRY.

If there was a system that gives you advantage, no casino/bookie/whatever could exist.
Just proves my "this forum has gone low quality" theorie, that there is even a discussion about this.

[natrass]

tacomax, Ive got to say i like you as a poster ... you can be extremely amusing, however, can you try to comprehend the concept of UNLIMITED.

The Wizard of Oz cannot argue that point.

And remember this all flared up from me saying that a big punter could indeed (not even probably/definately/always etc) but could bankrupt the monte carlo casino using the martingale system.

Now, its spreadsheet this, blah blah ... fact is ... small casino meets big player ... then the casino craps it because of all i have said here.

[Quarm]

thats why there is betting limits...jesus get REAL

[raiders72001]

Quarm- You're an idiot. There are lots of casino games in Vegas that you can win long term and are player advantage. Many people make a living using these systems. Just ask John as I'm sure he knows what I'm talking about.

[tacomax]

taco- I'm willing to back my statements with money. You are an uneducated gambler.

BREAKING NEWS. Backing your statements with money doesn't mean that you're right.

Are you saying that Shackleford is incorrect in his work?

[Ganchrow]

ganchgrow- You can set up the rules if you would like. The only thing is I'm not sure how we can determine the success of each individual bet over the Internet unless we use sports gambling as the test. I would even let you pick the game. I would first give you the spread and you pick the side that I'm on.

If we were in person we could use roulette or just flip aq coin.

Problem with sports is that it's hard to get in a sufficient number if trials in a suitable amount of time. Problem with a coin flip is that it's a zero sum game. I have no desire to ever risk any money on a game in which my expectation is not positove.

Understand this though ... if we go for 100 spins with a $1 base unit. Then the most you could possibly win would be $100.

The most I could possibly win would be $1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,3 75. Do you have that much money to risk?

[tacomax]

tacomax, Ive got to say i like you as a poster ... you can be extremely amusing, however, can you try to comprehend the concept of UNLIMITED.

The Wizard of Oz cannot argue that point.
.

Check out the WOO site, natrass.

Player: If I had an infinite amount of money and time, and the casino would take any bet, then could I ensure a profit by playing the Martingale (doubling after every loss until I win) on a fair bet on the toss of a coin?

Wizard of Odds: No

[raiders72001]

Yikes- I wish I did.We are talking two different thing. I was willing to make an even money bet $100 vs $100 that I would win. I'm sure you understand the advantage for me as I understand the advantage for you.

This is similar to playing slots. Do you play a slot with a low amount of wins but a high pay off or slots with many winners but low payoffs.

[Ganchrow]

Yikes- I wish I did.We are talking two different thing. I was willing to make an even money bet $100 vs $100 that I would win. I'm sure you understand the advantage for me as I understand the advantage for you.

Yeah. Two different things. Would I make the bet you suggest? Well, to quote my friend Natrass, "Not bloody likely!"

This is similar to playing slots. Do you play a slot with a lot amount of wins but a high pay off or slots with many winners but low payoffs.

I don't play slots. I try never to take negative EV bets.

[raiders72001]

Another analogy is using the lotto.The jackpot carries over many times and you figure that with the amount of players compared to the jackpot that you have an advantag. Now if you play one lotto ticket for $1 you have a theoretical advantage but the odds of hitting are very slim.

Now there are some syndicates that try to buy every combination of numbers as they feel they are guaranteed winners.

[raiders72001]

I try never to take negative EV bets.

Banking slots are +EV.

[natrass]

Check out the WOO site, natrass.

Taco ... my mistake ... when I emphasised the word unilimited I should have also emphasised that the bank is LIMITED

Now, you tell me the unlimited player versus the limited bank playing martingale ... do you have a spreadsheet for that?

Like I tried to say, its not you and me here ... its abig roller versus a limited casino .... just ask if you want me to explain more, maybe the wizard has a program though.

[Ganchrow]

Another analogy is using the lotto.The jackpot carries over many times and you figure that with the amount of players compared to the jackpot that you have an advantag. Now if you play one lotto ticket for $1 you have a theoretical advantage but the odds of hitting are very slim.

This may not be true if enough other people your particular set of numbers. A winning strategy might be to select a combination which is less likely to be chosen by other people (for example numbers which don't represent children's birthdays).

[Ganchrow]

Banking slots are +EV.

What are banking slots?

[Ganchrow]

maybe the wizard has a program though.

Hey, I just wrote you a program!

[natrass]

Problem with sports is that it's hard to get in a sufficient number if trials in a suitable amount of time. Problem with a coin flip is that it's a zero sum game. I have no desire to ever risk any money on a game in which my expectation is not positove.

Understand this though ... if we go for 100 spins with a $1 base unit. Then the most you could possibly win would be $100.

The most I could possibly win would be $1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,3 75. Do you have that much money to risk?

ganchow .. here's a scenario ... hows that I play a casino black/red. I will bet 20c a go and I have a bank roll of $100. What would you bet that the house never gives me a winning roll. Seriously, what odds for that? Probably 0.00000000000001. It works both ways ...

(I dont want to bet you BTW, just being theoretical which is what started all this!! )

[Ganchrow]

hows that I play a casino black/red. I will bet 20c a go and I have a bank roll of $100. What would you bet that the house never gives me a winning roll.

The chances of this occuring are about 1 out of 2.38 x 10^139.

At a payoff of even a million times those odds, I'd still bet zero. I'm just way too risk averse.

[Winston Smith]

Here's my question:

Natrass, supposing your initial bankrolls are plausible, you still don't guarantee a profit for Trump. If, at one point the Casino is bankrupt and it has given Trump all $100,000, Trump is still not it the black.

What good is Casino bankrupcy if there is no player profit? Isn't the profitability the point?

[raiders72001]

What are banking slots?

Banking slots work like this. One example is a game called Break the Bank. On top of the machine will see bank with coins in it. I forget the amount but say for every 10 coins you play they add one coin to the bank. When you hit 3 break the banks on the wheel you win what's in the bank and then the bank starts at 0 again.

Guys have programs on how many coins need to be in the bank before it's +EV. So you watch the machines say it takes 20 coins in the bank to be +EV. When you see a machine with 20 coins in the bank you jump in and play until you break the bank.

There are many machines like this. It's becoming less and less profitable as people are figuring out how to beat these machines and there's more competition. Also Vegas is shying away from these types of slots.

Many times you can find these machines on casino boats that are legal in other states in the US>

[Ganchrow]

Banking slots work like this. ...

Interesting. I just wonder how positive the EV tends to get. How profitable does it get from an hourly rate perspective, anyway?

[Ganchrow]

Here's my question:

Natrass, supposing your initial bankrolls are plausible, you still don't guarantee a profit for Trump. If, at one point the Casino is bankrupt and it has given Trump all $100,000, Trump is still not it the black.

Unless I'm misunderstanding you (always a possibility), in this case Trump would be +$100K, no?

[Winston Smith]

No, you're not misunderstanding me. I'm doing the math wrong in my head. Sorry.