Now We Have Some Clarity, This is How College Football Playoff Will Shake Out

[LT Profits]

First for the four teams that are in:

Alabama is in no matter what
Oregon/Arizona winner is in
Then pecking order for last two spots:
TCU
Florida State
Ohio State
Baylor

Only monkey wrench would be if three of the four "peck" teams lose, but I don't even want to think about that.

Now for the seedings:

If Alabama and Oregon win:

1-Alabama
2-Oregon
3-Peck#1
4-Peck#2

If Alabama and Arizona win:
1-Alabama
2-Peck#1
3-Arizona
4-Peck #2

If Alabama loses and Oregon wins:
1-Oregon
2-Peck#1
3-Peck#2
4-Alabama

If Alabama loses and Arizona wins:
1-Peck#1
2-Peck#2
3-Alabama
4-Arizona

Arizona/Oregon winner goes to Rose Bowl no matter what. If Florida State is a "peck" team, it goes to Sugar Bowl no matter what.

That should be it.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

The only thing I do not agree 100% with is Arizona... On the one hand, if Arizona beats Oregon AGAIN, i think its tough not to say Arizona gets in.

BUT. TCU will win at home v Iowa State. If Arizona beats Oregon again, Ohio State beats Sconsin, Baylor beats Kstate and Florida State beats GT...

Then wouldnt the playoff be #1Bama v #4Ohio State / Baylor and #2 TCU v #3 FSU.

[jjgold]

If Mizu ever beat Bama they deserve in

no brainer

[fried cheese]

i think its far from clear. i dont think alabama gets in if they lose and i dont think arizona gets in if they win if all the other teams win in both cases. and who knows what they will do with tcu and baylor with all that co champion crap if baylor wins.

[Cuse0323]

Not sure why Bama should be in no matter what.

[rm18]

[daneblazer]

Bama loses I don't think they're in unless Paul Finebaum is on the committee.

[grease lightnin]

Yeah "Alabama is in no matter what" is questionable. What if Mizzou wins, Wisconsin wins, Ga Tech wins, AZ wins, and K State wins? What then? All hell will break loose and there will be an 8 team playoff next year. Lol

[LT Profits]

The only thing I do not agree 100% with is Arizona... On the one hand, if Arizona beats Oregon AGAIN, i think its tough not to say Arizona gets in.

BUT. TCU will win at home v Iowa State. If Arizona beats Oregon again, Ohio State beats Sconsin, Baylor beats Kstate and Florida State beats GT...

Then wouldnt the playoff be #1Bama v #4Ohio State / Baylor and #2 TCU v #3 FSU.

Guess what! I AGREE with you that Arizona does not deserve to be in, and I don't even think Alabama should be in if they lose again. However, everything I said is based on how the Playoff Rankings shook out Tuesday. The committee moved Arizona all the way up to 7 for a reason, they would leapfrog Ohio State and Baylor by sweeping Oregon. And with the second highest SEC team being Mississippi State at 10 and with Missouri being 16, that tells me they will put Alabama in even with a loss because those two teams are too far back in there is no way the committee shuts out the SEC.

[LT Profits]

If Mizu ever beat Bama they deserve in

no brainer

I thought that had a chance to be true until Missouri was placed 16th, even below Mississippi State at 10.

[LT Profits]

i think its far from clear. i dont think alabama gets in if they lose and i dont think arizona gets in if they win if all the other teams win in both cases. and who knows what they will do with tcu and baylor with all that co champion crap if baylor wins.

Read my explanations in post #9. Other SEC teams are too far back so Alabama basically HAS to be in. Their punishment for losing would be having to go to Rose Bowl if Oregon wins. And what other reason would there be to move Arizona up to 7 last night? Committee is ensuring that Pac-12 Champ goes to Rose Bowl.

[LT Profits]

Not sure why Bama should be in no matter what.

Because no other SEC team is close.

[daneblazer]

I thought that had a chance to be true until Missouri was placed 16th, even below Mississippi State at 10.

Theyve shown these rankings are fluid. They'd have to blow Alabama out. Would need a lot to happen though and don't see them jumping the big 10 or big 12 winner.

been saying for weeks the SEC's worst nightmare was Missouri winning. I think the game is going to be closer than people think. If missouri wins and the other favorites and Ohio state win, SEC is probably out.

[LT Profits]

Bama loses I don't think they're in unless Paul Finebaum is on the committee.

Do I have to answer this again. Committee won't shut out SEC, pure and simple. Also re-read Post #9, I actually AGREE that Arizona would not belong and 2-loss Alabama probably would not belong. So none of this has to do with my personal opinion.

[LT Profits]

Yeah "Alabama is in no matter what" is questionable. What if Mizzou wins, Wisconsin wins, Ga Tech wins, AZ wins, and K State wins? What then? All hell will break loose and there will be an 8 team playoff next year. Lol

Of all the teams you have winning (other than Arizona, which would sneak in), Kansas State is the only one ranked in top 10. Again, committee won't bump SEC.

[LT Profits]

Theyve shown these rankings are fluid. They'd have to blow Alabama out. Would need a lot to happen though and don't see them jumping the big 10 or big 12 winner.

been saying for weeks the SEC's worst nightmare was Missouri winning. I think the game is going to be closer than people think. If missouri wins and the other favorites and Ohio state win, SEC is probably out.

I can't stress enough that this tread has nothing to do with my opinion on the teams. I just don't think the committee will allow SEC to be out. And on a cool side note, I have one CFB play in so far this week: Missouri +14.5!

[daneblazer]

Do I have to answer this again. Committee won't shut out SEC, pure and simple. Also re-read Post #9, I actually AGREE that Arizona would not belong and 2-loss Alabama probably would not belong. So none of this has to do with my personal opinion.

Its kinda gone downhill for the SEC this month, and I'm an sec guy. Georgia & Auburn shit the bed, ole miss got boat raced by mediocre Arkansas, Missouri (while I think they're much better now than people give them credit for) will never get past that Indiana loss in people's eyes. If Alabama had 2 losses and won the SEC, they'd be in...but it's not going to work like that. I think the committee is going to credit conference champs more than we realize.

[Filmoz]

I agree with you re Arizona LT. If they beat Oregon and Ohio State loses to Wisky, I think they are in for sure. If Ohio State wins, it'll be an interesting decision by the committee but Arizona still has an argument. I think the playoff is designed so that, ideally, there is one champion from each of the Power 5 conferences, with the champion of weakest Power 5 conference being necessarily left out. You could argue that Big10 is the weakest of the five, or even if it is the ACC they can't leave FSU out if they run the table, so that takes a spot and it comes down to whether the Big10 is weaker than the Pac12, which they are. If Ohio State wins it's gonna be tough to put in a 2-loss Pac12 champ over a 1-loss Big10 champ, but if Ohio State loses I think Arizona is easily in simply by virtue of winning the Pac.

[LT Profits]

I think the whole point of the loose wording to the committee of picking the four "best" teams without regard to conference affiliation is code for "Make sure one SEC team is in and f\*\*k another deserving team if you have to."

[LT Profits]

I agree with you re Arizona LT. If they beat Oregon and Ohio State loses to Wisky, I think they are in for sure. If Ohio State wins, it'll be an interesting decision by the committee but Arizona still has an argument. I think the playoff is designed so that, ideally, there is one champion from each of the Power 5 conferences, with the champion of weakest Power 5 conference being necessarily left out. You could argue that Big10 is the weakest of the five, or even if it is the ACC they can't leave FSU out if they run the table, so that takes a spot and it comes down to whether the Big10 is weaker than the Pac12, which they are. If Ohio State wins it's gonna be tough to put in a 2-loss Pac12 champ over a 1-loss Big10 champ, but if Ohio State loses I think Arizona is easily in simply by virtue of winning the Pac.

If Arizona beats Oregon, they will be Pac-12 Champs and none of the other teams in the top 6 would be from the West. Think Rose Bowl and $$$.

[Filmoz]

If Arizona beats Oregon, they will be Pac-12 Champs and none of the other teams in the top 6 would be from the West. Think Rose Bowl and $$$.

This too. I am an Arizona homer and the way this season has been shaking out has been a dream come true. Having lived through the good times and bad, and the Rose Bowl always eluding us, the chance to not only make their first Rose Bowl but to have it also be the inaugural playoff would be amazing.

[Sam Odom]

Sammy wants some upsets in Top 5

Love the bitching

[LT Profits]

Even is you ignore the Western time zone thing (I know Zona is MST, but they are in Pac-12 after all), the Pac-12 IS better than the Big Ten and that is why Arizona dominates Ohio State in SOS at any site you look at.

[LT Profits]

Sammy wants some upsets in Top 5

Love the bitching

Hopefully I have accounted for all the possibilities. TCU SHOULD win easily, so that should make things easier. I am starting to think that if TCU wins and the other three pecks lose, fourth team might be Kansas State as they are 9 and would add win over Baylor? Would be tough call and would again bring up the two Big 12 team debate.

[The Giant]

I have a hard time believing Arizona gets in unless there is complete chaos in the top four.

[LT Profits]

I have a hard time believing Arizona gets in unless there is complete chaos in the top four.

I disagree too but they are #7. Blame the committee, not me. They win, the natural jump would be 6. But by beating Oregon a second time, they leapfrog Ohio State and Baylor, and Arizona has has stronger SOS than both those teams anyway.

[LT Profits]

I have a hard time believing Arizona gets in unless there is complete chaos in the top four.

I would argue Arizona beating Oregon again in itself qualifies as chaos.

[jjgold]

Bama loses they are OUT

Its a no brainer

[The Giant]

I disagree too but they are #7. Blame the committee, not me. They win, the natural jump would be 6. But by beating Oregon a second time, they leapfrog Ohio State and Baylor, and Arizona has has stronger SOS than both those teams anyway.

The committee has said if Arizona and Ohio State both were to win, Arizona would leapfrog Ohio State? I don't see how they can pass Ohio State. I don't even know why they would pass Baylor.

This is quite confusing.

Too much subjectivity.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

This stuff makes my head hurt and my nose bleed. Selection committee guys have not slept since mid october.

My current analysis says if Georgia tech beats FSU, Jameis beats the charges, oregon beats themselves, Alabama starts Savan as QB, then TCU beats Baylor and Ohio State in a three play game simultaneously played on two fields side by side.

Then if Arizona can just beat their own basketball team in a game of water polo by a score of at least 3 games then they will go to final on goal differential, and play Nick Saban, the winner of which will play the winner of Oregon v oregon.

[LT Profits]

The committee has said if Arizona and Ohio State both were to win, Arizona would leapfrog Ohio State? I don't see how they can pass Ohio State. I don't even know why they would pass Baylor.

This is quite confusing.

Too much subjectivity.

Committee "said" that by moving Arizona up to #7, they are ensuring Pac-12 Champ goes to Rose Bowl. But to answer your question, this is a case where I'd have no problem with Zona jumping Ohio State and Baylor because they should be rewarded for beating Oregon TWICE and they have a much stronger SOS than each of those teams. The problem I DO have is with them being #7 in the first place, especially with two losses. But you can't fight City Hall.

[Big Bear]

First of all

OHIO STATE controls their own destiny. A Win and they are in.

All these haters trying to say Ohio State doesnt deserve to get in with the 3rd string QB are going to be in
AWE of Cardale Jones when Ohio State lays the smack down on Wisconsin.

I hope Urban Meyers runs the score up on these fukkin clowns to send a message.

[Big Bear]

Bama loses they are OUT

Its a no brainer

they are playing the little children of the poor.

pretty sure Bama could beat Mizzou if all the players had one arm tied behind their back and played barefoot

[Big Bear]

people keep disrespecting the Big 10 but Indiana wiped the floor with Mizzou earlier this season.

thats right Indiana lol.

Mizzou is a fukkin joke.

[LT Profits]

First of all

OHIO STATE controls their own destiny. A Win and they are in.

All these haters trying to say Ohio State doesnt deserve to get in with the 3rd string QB are going to be in
AWE of Cardale Jones when Ohio State lays the smack down on Wisconsin.

I hope Urban Meyers runs the score up on these fukkin clowns to send a message.

Not true at all, if the top 4 teams win, Ohio State is out. Ohio State need a win combined with either a Florida State or TCU loss. If committee is willing to exclude SEC (which I highly doubt), then Alabama loss would work for Ohio State too. Oregon loss would be irrelevant because Arizona would simply take Ducks spot.