Giants -2 @ Jacksonville........Is this real life?

[blankoblanco]

I guess bots are smarter than humans

[blankoblanco]

If you actually watched the game (guessing virtually nobody who's posting afterwards watched more than the score updates or highlights) and think that the Jags was the right side, please save money and never bet sports again. If you are this hung up on results then you cannot think critically enough to evaluate games to cap future games. I'm about to blow your mind, but the correct bet loses at least 40% of the time. That is how sports work. If you cap with the idea that every winner was the correct bet, you're doomed

[blackHIPPY]

If you actually watched the game (guessing virtually nobody who's posting afterwards watched more than the score updates or highlights) and think that the Jags was the right side, please save money and never bet sports again. If you are this hung up on results then you cannot think critically enough to evaluate games to cap future games. I'm about to blow your mind, but the correct bet loses at least 40% of the time. That is how sports work. If you cap with the idea that every winner was the correct bet, you're doomed

every winner IS the correct bet

[blankoblanco]

Wrong. But at least 50% of people on this forum believe that, and that's why they will never win at sportsbetting.

If I shove with 27o in a poker game and win, was it the right play because I won the hand? The concept is no different. Sports contains randomness, just like poker. Every game isn't set-up. Get your head out of your ass

[Sacamano]

Taking my words back! Much respect.

[ByeShea]

This is why you suck at gambling, JJ. So if they'd won as the stats suggested they usually would, you'd never think this. But because Jags happened to recover 2 fumbles for TDs and had 0 TOs themselves, despite being outplayed for 95% of the game, you create this opinion about the teams. You and everyone who thinks about sports this way are dumb as rocks and will never win in the long-term. Use your brain, watch the game, and look past the results. The right bet doesn't always win

Two questions:

- Why is it so difficult for you to accept that a 3-8 team can lose on the road?

- Do betting windows grant your lofty rhetoric refunds on losing tickets?

[TwoWays]

Two questions:

- Why is it so difficult for you to accept that a 3-8 team can lose on the road?

- Do betting windows grant your lofty rhetoric refunds on losing tickets?

Too much babbling Mumbo jumbo. Can't really comprehend. Don't think he can either.

[pronk]

Lost my rooster on this one

Are you gonna double up on dolphins tomorrow professor?

[blankoblanco]

Two questions:

- Why is it so difficult for you to accept that a 3-8 team can lose on the road?

- Do betting windows grant your lofty rhetoric refunds on losing tickets?

Not difficult to accept at all, because I understand how sportsbetting works, apparently unlike most around here. I think Giants lose this game ~35% of the time. I also think Giants -2.5 is a very profitable bet. Do the math and figure out why. If you think you correctly capped the Jags winning because they recovered 2 fumbles for touchdowns and lost almost every other aspect of the game then you are delusional. If you truly want to learn from the game as a sports bettor then the result basically doesn't matter. All that matters is the eye-test, if you watch the game and know what to look for.

I've come to accept that most on here are huge degens and have no concept of how to bet sports intelligently. Find a winning sports bettor, and they could tell you about 100 bets they lost that they still believe were the correct bets to make. Sports are unpredictable. The object is to make the bet that wins the majority of the time. No bet wins 100% of the time, or even 70% of the time. The fact that so many people around here don't understand that simple concept while bettings thousands on games is insane

[TwoWays]

This guy blanko is on like another level of intellegence. Sbr, give this guy the password to the premium sbr lounge

[blankoblanco]

I'm just trying to help, bud. If my posts don't make sense to you then feel free to continue approaching sports the way that you do. All I can say is I'm giving my input as a winning spot-bettor (if I tried to bet more than 5 NFL games a week I would undoubtedly lose). If you think the result dictates how good a bet was, you are wrong. Same as poker. 40%ers win 40% of the time. That should be no clearer than it is in a sport like football where random turnovers frequently determine which side wins. The best you can do is try to bet on a side that will win 60% of the time. I believe NYG was such a side here, but you can feel free to disagree with me. The concept remains the same. I'm a winning bettor on Jags game for the past 4 years, so I offered my input. In fact I'm a fan so I'm ultimately happy they won. Still like the bet

[incognitoh]

I'm just trying to help, bud. If my posts don't make sense to you then feel free to continue approaching sports the way that you do. All I can say is I'm giving my input as a winning spot-bettor (if I tried to bet more than 5 NFL games a week I would undoubtedly lose). If you think the result dictates how good a bet was, you are wrong. Same as poker. 40%ers win 40% of the time. That should be no clearer than it is in a sport like football where random turnovers frequently determine which side wins. The best you can do is try to bet on a side that will win 60% of the time. I believe NYG was such a side here, but you can feel free to disagree with me. The concept remains the same. I'm a winning bettor on Jags game for the past 4 years, so I offered my input. In fact I'm a fan so I'm ultimately happy they won. Still like the bet

You are absolutely right with your theory; however, you are wrong with this specific pick. There were very good reasons to take a shot on Jacksonville in this matchup. Just comparing DVOA stats and taking into account NYG's road record and Jax's home record Jax should have been the pick (my model had Jax -2).

Yes, this game came down to turnovers, which DVOA takes into account; however, what game doesn't?

With the line given, either was a solid pick, which is why the book always win LOL.

[blankoblanco]

You are absolutely right with your theory; however, you are wrong with this specific pick. There were very good reasons to take a shot on Jacksonville in this matchup. Just comparing DVOA stats and taking into account NYG's road record and Jax's home record Jax should have been the pick (my model had Jax -2).

I see where you're coming from but comparing road record to home record in this match-up seems silly to me. Yes, Jags won 1 home game, Giants won 1 away game. Giants had only lost to teams with good records until now. Not ultimately all that meaningful for betting purposes IMO

I wasn't really bothering with models since I've watched every single Jags game from beginning to end (and I'm guessing I'm the only person in this thread who has done so since there aren't a lot of Jags fans around here) and I know the team's strengths and weakness. I have correctly bet ON the Jags this year, so I don't simply fade. I love the Jags but they were outplayed significantly in this game. The beauty of NFL is you can score 2 TDs through fumble recoveries and steal a game. I was aware that Eli TOs had the potential to be a determining factor in the game because Jags D-line could do work against NYG o-line. But it's still impossible to predict 2 defensive TDs (and this was actually the 1st time in Jags history that they got 2 defensive TDs). I still think, unless the NFL is actually rigged, based on everything I know, NYG -2.5 was a good bet.

[incognitoh]

I see where you're coming from but comparing road record to home record in this match-up seems silly to me. Yes, Jags won 1 home game, Giants won 1 away game. Giants had only lost to teams with good records until now. Not ultimately all that meaningful for betting purposes IMO

I wasn't really bothering with models since I've watched every single Jags game from beginning to end (and I'm guessing I'm the only person in this thread who has done so since there aren't a lot of Jags fans around here) and I know the team's strengths and weakness. I have correctly bet ON the Jags this year, so I don't simply fade. I love the Jags but they were outplayed significantly in this game. The beauty of NFL is you can score 2 TDs through fumble recoveries and steal a game. I was aware that Eli TOs had the potential to be a determining factor in the game because Jags D-line could do work against NYG o-line. But it's still impossible to predict 2 defensive TDs (and this was actually the 1st time in Jags history that they got 2 defensive TDs). I still think, unless the NFL is actually rigged, based on everything I know, NYG -2.5 was a good bet.

Once again, I am agreeing with most of what you are saying. I am just saying that Jax was not a bad bet either; Eli is a turnover machine.

But... even with a model predicting Jax as a 2pt favorite; I would have still picked NYG and felt like I was on the right side. Statistical models are just a guide, they are not definitive; I was just saying that a case could be made for picking Jax.

[Demonata]

this game made me more angry then i have been in a long time.

[grease lightnin]

Hard to cap for 2 fumble recoveries for TDs. Giants won TOP by 9 mins and outgained Jax by almost 100 yards, and Blake Bortles had his first NFL game where he didn't throw a pick.

This is why I said "throwing money into a dumpster fire". Two bad teams playing each other is unpredictable as hell. Too much variance.

[jtoler]

I see where you're coming from but comparing road record to home record in this match-up seems silly to me. Yes, Jags won 1 home game, Giants won 1 away game. Giants had only lost to teams with good records until now. Not ultimately all that meaningful for betting purposes IMO

I wasn't really bothering with models since I've watched every single Jags game from beginning to end (and I'm guessing I'm the only person in this thread who has done so since there aren't a lot of Jags fans around here) and I know the team's strengths and weakness. I have correctly bet ON the Jags this year, so I don't simply fade. I love the Jags but they were outplayed significantly in this game. The beauty of NFL is you can score 2 TDs through fumble recoveries and steal a game. I was aware that Eli TOs had the potential to be a determining factor in the game because Jags D-line could do work against NYG o-line. But it's still impossible to predict 2 defensive TDs (and this was actually the 1st time in Jags history that they got 2 defensive TDs). I still think, unless the NFL is actually rigged, based on everything I know, NYG -2.5 was a good bet.

I wouldnt say good bet, pregame I think it really was one of those games to just have no bet on honestly, 3-8 Giants, no playoffs in sight, after toughing it out with Cowboys and losing, now on the road, not too much motivation one might think.

[blankoblanco]

This is why I said "throwing money into a dumpster fire". Two bad teams playing each other is unpredictable as hell. Too much variance.

I simply bet with the belief that all NFL games are unpredictable as hell. The difference between a QB throwing a TD and a pick-six is 14 pts. Some luck can't be accounted for, so I try to find games where I think the side wins 55-60% of the time. No NFL bet is a sure thing imo

[BILLY MEIER]

I simply bet with the belief that all NFL games are unpredictable as hell. The difference between a QB throwing a TD and a pick-six is 14 pts. Some luck can't be accounted for, so I try to find games where I think the side wins 55-60% of the time. No NFL bet is a sure thing imo

Dude i bet the giants live against the cowboys and lost, was only 300 dollars but i was pissed that all that work to score a td went to waste when the cowboys marched down the field like were the fack was the giants D? so how in the hell do u bet the giants? Its like you know they have no d what so ever For the record the giants have always facked me, so from now on i will not bet on or against the giants and in the nba i stay away from the bulls , some teams you just have to stay away no matter how tempting the bet looks like it cant lose, giants had a huge lead 2 weeks in a row and blew both games

[blankoblanco]

I bet the Giants because I think if those teams in those exact conditions played 100 times, Giants cover 60+ of those times. Simple as that. There's no way to prove if I'm right or wrong about that. My issue is with people who think because the Jags won this game, it was a good bet. I don't think that's how sports work. And I think based on watching the game (which again I think very few in this thread actually did, because it's unlikely you'd watch this game unless you're a fan of 1 of the teams), you should probably come away from it thinking that Giants would usually cover. Jags won by 1 point due to having the actual first game in franchise history where they scored 2 defensive TDs. Nobody capped that happening. If you did, you're the greatest capper of all time and should bet all your money on every pick and become a billionare

[MoneyLineDawg]

If you watched the game you saw how bad the Giants O-line was getting destroyed as the game went on and Eli needs a pocket to be effective....The Giants did what they always do and carelessly turn the ball over in bad spots....It's really nothing new for the last 2 seasons with them

They are a better team man for man than the Jags but they are both really bad collectively and the Jags simply wanted it more and played like it down the stretch with a young team that didn't know any better

You're crazy if you bet "big" on these NFL games that look too good to be true.....They sometimes work out, but more often than not you bury yourself.....You're better off betting big on NFL games where the line seems correct and you just find an edge or like a certain side due to whatever angle you got going

Tough loss for some but there's always a new day

[blankoblanco]

Bortles got sacked as much as Eli did (I think more, but not gonna bother to check), because Jags O-line is also terrible. If you think you capped the fact that Eli would fumble on his sacks and Bortles wouldn't, you are legit delusional. Period. Re-read that sentence if you're still in doubt. The thought is ludicrous. Bortles came into the game with a higher TO rate than Eli. Sports contain luck and randomness, the same that all elements of gambling do. Every post I make feels like I'm talking to a brick wall, so I'm giving up. All I can hope is that 1 person reads my posts and understands where I'm coming from

[redtagboys]

Not difficult to accept at all, because I understand how sportsbetting works, apparently unlike most around here. I think Giants lose this game ~35% of the time. I also think Giants -2.5 is a very profitable bet. Do the math and figure out why. If you think you correctly capped the Jags winning because they recovered 2 fumbles for touchdowns and lost almost every other aspect of the game then you are delusional. If you truly want to learn from the game as a sports bettor then the result basically doesn't matter. All that matters is the eye-test, if you watch the game and know what to look for.

I've come to accept that most on here are huge degens and have no concept of how to bet sports intelligently. Find a winning sports bettor, and they could tell you about 100 bets they lost that they still believe were the correct bets to make. Sports are unpredictable. The object is to make the bet that wins the majority of the time. No bet wins 100% of the time, or even 70% of the time. The fact that so many people around here don't understand that simple concept while bettings thousands on games is insane

well said brother

[MoneyLineDawg]

Bortles got sacked more than Eli did. If you think you capped the fact that Eli would fumble on his sacks and Bortles wouldn't, you are legit delusional. Period. Re-read that sentence if you're still in doubt. The thought is ludicrous. Bortles came into the game with a higher TO rate than Eli

Re-read my posts throughout the thread......I said Eli would struggle alot with Jacksonville's passrush and also said it would generally be a slopfest

I didn't even say the Jags were a good bet, just that the Giants were "too good to be true" as some were saying bet of the year or whatever which is laughable

Two shit teams with QBs and teams in general that turn the ball over frequently....just so happened that the real costly ones went with the Jags on Sunday

Also said that I liked the Jags at home as a young team that doesn't know any better but to keep fighting against a Giants vet team that had zero motivation after losing at home to the Cowboys the week prior as a final nail in their disappointing season

It's only one game though

[freakydave]

I bet the Giants because I think if those teams in those exact conditions played 100 times, Giants cover 60+ of those times. Simple as that. There's no way to prove if I'm right or wrong about that. My issue is with people who think because the Jags won this game, it was a good bet. I don't think that's how sports work. And I think based on watching the game (which again I think very few in this thread actually did, because it's unlikely you'd watch this game unless you're a fan of 1 of the teams), you should probably come away from it thinking that Giants would usually cover. Jags won by 1 point due to having the actual first game in franchise history where they scored 2 defensive TDs. Nobody capped that happening. If you did, you're the greatest capper of all time and should bet all your money on every pick and become a billionare

IMO your premise of the giants winning that game 60+ times out of 100 is just wrong. This was clearly a pass game from start to finish

[OTL]

Why argue over the outcome of a game that was a 50/50 proposition? Disciplined bettors know to steer clear of these types of games.

[freakydave]

Why argue over the outcome of a game that was a 50/50 proposition? Disciplined bettors know to steer clear of these types of games.

exactly

[FourFeathers]

Anyone who puts any money on Eli Manning needs to re-evaulate how they bet LOL

[Tron.21]

I respect your approach @blankoblanco

[ByeShea]

Anyone who puts any money on Eli Manning needs to re-evaulate how they bet LOL

You fool! Never doubt blankoblanco's Bat Computer. It might not win all its bets - but it's never wrong!

[Hot Jerry]

anyone that touch this game must be desperate !! LOL - what a pitiful game !!

[ByeShea]

anyone that touch this game must be desperate !! LOL - what a pitiful game !!

Giants @ Titans - pick'em

Some massive value here - one squad has a 70% likelihood of winning, so I'm doubling up my wager.

Discuss.